Editing 1131: Math
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==Explanation== | ==Explanation== | ||
+ | {{incomplete|Explain the title text.}} | ||
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In another election-themed comic (this one posted the day after the {{w|United States presidential election, 2012|2012 U.S. presidential election}} November 7, 2012)—(see also [[1122: Electoral Precedent]], [[500: Election]], [[1127: Congress]], and [[1130: Poll Watching]])—this comic shows a bar graph representing expected (see note below) {{w|Electoral College (United States)|electoral college}} votes in the election, including a dotted line indicating the 270 electoral votes needed to win, a span of projections ("Forecast"), and the actual result. | In another election-themed comic (this one posted the day after the {{w|United States presidential election, 2012|2012 U.S. presidential election}} November 7, 2012)—(see also [[1122: Electoral Precedent]], [[500: Election]], [[1127: Congress]], and [[1130: Poll Watching]])—this comic shows a bar graph representing expected (see note below) {{w|Electoral College (United States)|electoral college}} votes in the election, including a dotted line indicating the 270 electoral votes needed to win, a span of projections ("Forecast"), and the actual result. | ||
− | The forecast range is | + | The forecast range is above the 270 line, showing that the ''Blue Candidate'' {{w|Barack Obama|Obama}} (the {{W|Democratic Party (United States)|democratic candidate}} is the ''Blue Candidate'' and the {{W|Republican Party (United States)|republican candidate}} is the ''Red Candidate'' according to a convention used since the 2000 election) was always projected to win by statisticians like {{w|Nate Silver}} and others. The only question among these people was how much he was going to win by. (The electoral college votes are expectations until the official voting result is announced early in November.) |
− | By contrast, most of the media was calling the election too close to call, with some news outlets actually projecting a {{w|Mitt Romney}} win. Essentially the large number of | + | By contrast, most of the media was calling the election too close to call, with some news outlets actually projecting a {{w|Mitt Romney|Romney}} win. Essentially the large number of republican '''{{W|pundit|pundits}}''' who helped increase the pressures of right wing self referencing media denial, the tendency of media to give any issue at least two dramatically or fictionally equal voices (for supposed "fairness") regardless of the relative merits of the two sides, and the desire to present the election as a suspenseful "horse race" resulted in a lot of ''talking heads'' (i.e. pundits) disbelieving the polls. These factors shaped the "too close to call" narrative, leading to the punch line of this story: |
− | + | You don't need to believe in science or statistics for it to effectively describe or predict reality. The progressively more radicalized republicans of this era are known for disregarding scientific or statistical consensus which reflects reality but does not conform to their world view. | |
− | For those unfamiliar with the {{w|United States presidential election|US Presidential electoral process}}: Unlike other political offices, the election for president is not a direct election. Instead, each state is apportioned a certain number of " | + | For those unfamiliar with the {{w|United States presidential election|US Presidential electoral process}}: Unlike other political offices, the election for president is not a direct election. Instead, each state is apportioned a certain number of "electoral college" votes based on population. For the most part (and there is perennial discussion on whether this should be changed) the candidate that receives the most votes in a given state receives all the electoral college votes for that state. With 538 electoral votes total, receiving 270 electoral college votes ((half of 538) + 1) is sufficient to be declared president-elect. For this reason, sometimes one candidate actually receive more "popular" votes (more people voted for the candidate) but have fewer electoral college votes. This happened three times in the nineteenth century with elections of {{w|United States presidential election, 1824|John Quincy Adams in 1824}}, {{w|United States presidential election, 1876|Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876}} and {{w|United States presidential election, 1888|Benjamin Harrison in 1888}}. Then it did not happen again until the election of {{w|United States presidential election, 2000|George W. Bush in 2000}} and, most recently, {{w|United States presidential election, 2016|Donald Trump in 2016}}. |
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==Transcript== | ==Transcript== | ||
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{{comic discussion}} | {{comic discussion}} | ||
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[[Category:Comics with color]] | [[Category:Comics with color]] | ||
[[Category:Politics]] | [[Category:Politics]] | ||
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[[Category:Charts]] | [[Category:Charts]] | ||
[[Category:Math]] | [[Category:Math]] | ||
[[Category:Statistics]] | [[Category:Statistics]] |