Editing 2380: Election Impact Score Sheet
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| titletext = You might think most people you know are reliable voters, or that your nudge won't convince them, and you will usually be right. But some small but significant percentage of the time, you'll be wrong, and that's why this works. | | titletext = You might think most people you know are reliable voters, or that your nudge won't convince them, and you will usually be right. But some small but significant percentage of the time, you'll be wrong, and that's why this works. | ||
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==Explanation== | ==Explanation== | ||
| − | This comic was published the day before {{w|Election day in the United States}} (November 3, 2020), which features a contentious {{w|2020 United States presidential election|presidential election}} between the incumbent, President | + | This comic was published the day before {{w|Election day in the United States}} (November 3, 2020), which features a contentious {{w|2020 United States presidential election|presidential election}} between the incumbent, President {{w|Donald Trump}}, and the challenger, former Vice President (now current President) {{w|Joe Biden}}. The United States does not elect presidents by popular vote, but instead uses an {{w|United States Electoral College|electoral college}} system, with each state getting a predetermined number of electoral votes, and a majority of electoral votes needed to win an election. The previous presidential election in 2016, which involved Trump and {{w|Hillary Clinton}}, was won by Trump, who lost the popular vote by 2 percentage points, but won the electoral vote 304-227 (270 was needed to win the election). |
Electoral college votes are distributed based on the number of congressional representatives of each state, with the most populous state, California, receiving 55 votes, and the least populous states which are Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming receiving 3 votes each, along with the District of Columbia, which as of the writing of this comic was not a state. Because the United States Congress has two legislative houses, with only one (the House of Representatives) apportioning representatives to the states based on their percentage of the US population and the other (the Senate) allocating two senators to every state regardless of population, smaller states have a higher ratio of electoral college votes to population than larger states do. | Electoral college votes are distributed based on the number of congressional representatives of each state, with the most populous state, California, receiving 55 votes, and the least populous states which are Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming receiving 3 votes each, along with the District of Columbia, which as of the writing of this comic was not a state. Because the United States Congress has two legislative houses, with only one (the House of Representatives) apportioning representatives to the states based on their percentage of the US population and the other (the Senate) allocating two senators to every state regardless of population, smaller states have a higher ratio of electoral college votes to population than larger states do. | ||
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Of course, just because a state may be a clear win for one party does not mean the votes of anyone who votes for the other party are wasted. A higher percentage of voters voting for the losing candidate sends a signal that the state is more competitive than assumed, which forces representatives to compromise and could make future voters more likely to show up because they believe their vote is more likely to matter. Additionally, many "down-ballot" races, like races for governorships, US Congress, state legislatures, and county governments, may be more competitive than the presidential race, and may have just as much or more impact on most people's lives. Randall accounts for some of these local races in deciding how to rank the states on the scoresheet. | Of course, just because a state may be a clear win for one party does not mean the votes of anyone who votes for the other party are wasted. A higher percentage of voters voting for the losing candidate sends a signal that the state is more competitive than assumed, which forces representatives to compromise and could make future voters more likely to show up because they believe their vote is more likely to matter. Additionally, many "down-ballot" races, like races for governorships, US Congress, state legislatures, and county governments, may be more competitive than the presidential race, and may have just as much or more impact on most people's lives. Randall accounts for some of these local races in deciding how to rank the states on the scoresheet. | ||
| − | The text at the bottom says to post your scoresheet with ''#Hashtag''. The "#" symbol (pronounced "hash") denotes a {{w|hashtag}} on platforms like Twitter, used to tag one's post as relating to the topic named following the symbol. However, this hashtag (said out-loud as "Hashtag Hashtag") would relate a post to the topic of hashtags rather than elections or votes, and so for the scoresheet is nonsensical and doesn't describe anything useful. It also refers to | + | The text at the bottom says to post your scoresheet with ''#Hashtag''. The "#" symbol (pronounced "hash") denotes a {{w|hashtag}} on platforms like Twitter, used to tag one's post as relating to the topic named following the symbol. However, this hashtag (said out-loud as "Hashtag Hashtag") would relate a post to the topic of hashtags rather than elections or votes, and so for the scoresheet is nonsensical and doesn't describe anything useful. It also refers to Nate Silver's famous election forecast model at {{w|FiveThirtyEight}}. Randall closes by urging people to contact Nate Silver to tell him to adjust his model to account for the added votes they have caused, but as the form doesn't indicate which candidate the filler has voted for or plans to vote for, never mind the people contacted, there's no way for him to know what sort of update to make. Perhaps the flurry of posts bearing the hashtag "#Hashtag" and indicating an effort to increase civic engagement will be a heartwarming surprise on a day that will probably be very busy and stressful for him. |
The title text explains that even if one thinks that their family and friends always vote, or that their reminder to vote won't work, they should do so anyway because of the chance they may be wrong. | The title text explains that even if one thinks that their family and friends always vote, or that their reminder to vote won't work, they should do so anyway because of the chance they may be wrong. | ||
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As shown in previous comics ([[1756: I'm With Her]] and others), Randall was a supporter of 2016 candidate {{w|Hillary Clinton}} (who ran against Trump), but this announcement should be equally applicable to supporters of either of the two main candidates in the current presidential race. | As shown in previous comics ([[1756: I'm With Her]] and others), Randall was a supporter of 2016 candidate {{w|Hillary Clinton}} (who ran against Trump), but this announcement should be equally applicable to supporters of either of the two main candidates in the current presidential race. | ||
| + | The comic includes a link for a printable version: https://xkcd.com/2380/election_impact_score_sheet.pdf | ||
===Table=== | ===Table=== | ||
