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The title text comments that people usually Google "hangover cure" 14 hours after they search for cocktail recipes. This suggests that people decide they want cocktails, look for ways to make cocktails, make (and presumably drink) the cocktails, wake up with a hangover and look for ways to get rid of the hangover. Google trends [https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&geo=US&q=Cocktail%20recipe,Hangover%20cure&hl=en does indeed] suggest that there is roughly a 14-hour difference in peaks between these searches. However this does not mean (as the title text implies) that the people searching for cocktail recipes are the same people that are searching for hangover cures later. It may represent the (not unreasonable) assumption that people who are exploring the idea of cocktails (for themselves or others) generally start to do so from the early evening onward, whilst those who find themselves freshly under the weather (not ''just'' from cocktail consumption) are likely to be finally provoked to look up a solution from around mid-morning. | The title text comments that people usually Google "hangover cure" 14 hours after they search for cocktail recipes. This suggests that people decide they want cocktails, look for ways to make cocktails, make (and presumably drink) the cocktails, wake up with a hangover and look for ways to get rid of the hangover. Google trends [https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&geo=US&q=Cocktail%20recipe,Hangover%20cure&hl=en does indeed] suggest that there is roughly a 14-hour difference in peaks between these searches. However this does not mean (as the title text implies) that the people searching for cocktail recipes are the same people that are searching for hangover cures later. It may represent the (not unreasonable) assumption that people who are exploring the idea of cocktails (for themselves or others) generally start to do so from the early evening onward, whilst those who find themselves freshly under the weather (not ''just'' from cocktail consumption) are likely to be finally provoked to look up a solution from around mid-morning. | ||
| β | One can illustrate the pitfalls of assuming such causation by substituting "chicken nuggets" for "cocktail recipe" which shows a very similar relationship. Chicken nuggets are not known to cause hangovers. | + | One can illustrate the pitfalls of assuming such causation by substituting "chicken nuggets" for "cocktail recipe" which shows a very similar relationship. Chicken nuggets are not known to cause hangovers.{cn} |
Looked at another way, there is a 10-hour 'lag' from searching for "hangover cure" to searching for "cocktail recipe"; this does not imply that having a hangover is causing people to be interested in drinking cocktails! (Though they may [https://gourmetinthemaking.blogspot.com/2016/02/posh-chicken-nuggets.html lead to chicken nuggets].) | Looked at another way, there is a 10-hour 'lag' from searching for "hangover cure" to searching for "cocktail recipe"; this does not imply that having a hangover is causing people to be interested in drinking cocktails! (Though they may [https://gourmetinthemaking.blogspot.com/2016/02/posh-chicken-nuggets.html lead to chicken nuggets].) | ||
