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| Is there a statistical angle I'm missing to the final part of the mouseover text 'did your brain fall out? [roll] yes...' Or is is purely linguistic between literal and figurative i.e. if his brain has fallen out as in he has made a careless error, then that's true. If it's literally did his brain fall out, is the 'yes' the 97% chance that it's talking about his mistake, or the ~3% chance that it's lying about the literal truth? [[Special:Contributions/172.69.69.244|172.69.69.244]] 14:46, 3 December 2019 (UTC) | | Is there a statistical angle I'm missing to the final part of the mouseover text 'did your brain fall out? [roll] yes...' Or is is purely linguistic between literal and figurative i.e. if his brain has fallen out as in he has made a careless error, then that's true. If it's literally did his brain fall out, is the 'yes' the 97% chance that it's talking about his mistake, or the ~3% chance that it's lying about the literal truth? [[Special:Contributions/172.69.69.244|172.69.69.244]] 14:46, 3 December 2019 (UTC) |
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− | As per Sagan, "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence". [[Special:Contributions/108.162.229.54|108.162.229.54]] 10:42, 12 October 2020 (UTC)
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− | When he Bayesian says "Bet you $50 it hasn't.", he is saying that he will probably win the bet. However, he isn't saying he knows whether the sun has exploded or whether the detector is lying. What he is saying is roughly equivalent to "If we are playing Texas Holdem and I have a royal flush while you have nothing showing, I am probably going to win and might as well bet what I can.
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− | If the eventist says "Detector! What would the Bayesian statistician say if I asked him whether I would say the sun had exploded", the Bayesian doesn't know what the detector would say. (I am changing the wording slightly, but it doesn't make sense to me as stated.) Therefore, the Bayesian can't give an answer. The Bayesian's answer would therefore be "I am a neutrino detector (answers are sometimes true and sometimes false), not a labyrinth guard (answers are always true or always false)". He then predicts that the Bayesian would say "Seriously, did your brain fall out?" After somebody hits the button, the detector answers truthfully (the likeliest option), and gives his opinion "YES". [[User:BradleyRoss|BradleyRoss]] ([[User talk:BradleyRoss|talk]]) 01:26, 23 February 2023 (UTC)
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− | With regard to Bayesian having multiple meanings, this is probably similar to there being a Turing test, a Turing machine, and Turing Complete. [[User:BradleyRoss|BradleyRoss]] ([[User talk:BradleyRoss|talk]]) 01:32, 23 February 2023 (UTC)
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− | No-one has discussed how to properly apply frequentists statistics to the problem.
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− | 1: Rerun the test several dozen times.
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− | 2: Find the 95% confidence interval of the generated data (A Poisson distribution is most appropriate for the modeling of event frequency).
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− | 3: If the 95% confidence interval includes the value of 1/36 then it supports the null hypothesis that there is no correlation is suggested between the sun and the positive detector results.
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− | Bayesian and Frequentist Statistics should yield the same result if handled correctly, because they are basically algebraic rearrangements of each other. --[[Special:Contributions/172.71.154.215|172.71.154.215]] 21:33, 24 March 2023 (UTC)
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