Editing Talk:2370: Prediction
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:::It may not be critical or may be obvious but in the comic, it seems to be understood that Event A or Event B may happen but not both, which "of course" affects how probability works. The difference between flipping one coin or two coins. | :::It may not be critical or may be obvious but in the comic, it seems to be understood that Event A or Event B may happen but not both, which "of course" affects how probability works. The difference between flipping one coin or two coins. | ||
:::If it is about the election, then if most people decide early to vote or not, and for whom, then the election isn't really random. However, the poll is random; they pick a few people out and ask their intention. The picking is unreliable even in a large sample (another probability surprise) and so is whether the people picked answer truthfully about their voting intention. Robert Carnegie [email protected] [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.155|141.101.98.155]] 11:42, 10 October 2020 (UTC) | :::If it is about the election, then if most people decide early to vote or not, and for whom, then the election isn't really random. However, the poll is random; they pick a few people out and ask their intention. The picking is unreliable even in a large sample (another probability surprise) and so is whether the people picked answer truthfully about their voting intention. Robert Carnegie [email protected] [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.155|141.101.98.155]] 11:42, 10 October 2020 (UTC) | ||
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::Yup, this is another politics comic. It's very similar to [[1131: Math]], and also reflects similar frustrations as the more recent [[2357]], although from a different angle (2357 was about lack of respect for polls, while this one's about poor grasp of odds and probability in the context of election models). [[User:Pelosujamo|Pelosujamo]] ([[User talk:Pelosujamo|talk]]) 04:09, 10 October 2020 (UTC) | ::Yup, this is another politics comic. It's very similar to [[1131: Math]], and also reflects similar frustrations as the more recent [[2357]], although from a different angle (2357 was about lack of respect for polls, while this one's about poor grasp of odds and probability in the context of election models). [[User:Pelosujamo|Pelosujamo]] ([[User talk:Pelosujamo|talk]]) 04:09, 10 October 2020 (UTC) | ||