Editing Talk:2599: Spacecraft Debris Odds Ratio
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::::It's a joke :) Since the title text is obviously a joke, maybe we shouldn't over-analyze it, except we can enjoy ourselves by “analyzing” it half-jokingly. Seriously, though, there is also some ambiguity in a natural language itself: e.g. by “one-and-a-half times larger than”, one may mean “one-and-a-half times as large as” (150%), or one may mean “150% larger than” (250%). When spoken informally, this kind of ambiguity is not uncommon. Another example would be “five hundred one thousandths” which may mean 501/1000 or 500/1000. Take it easy & take care :) — [[User:Yosei|Yosei]] ([[User talk:Yosei|talk]]) 11:38, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | ::::It's a joke :) Since the title text is obviously a joke, maybe we shouldn't over-analyze it, except we can enjoy ourselves by “analyzing” it half-jokingly. Seriously, though, there is also some ambiguity in a natural language itself: e.g. by “one-and-a-half times larger than”, one may mean “one-and-a-half times as large as” (150%), or one may mean “150% larger than” (250%). When spoken informally, this kind of ambiguity is not uncommon. Another example would be “five hundred one thousandths” which may mean 501/1000 or 500/1000. Take it easy & take care :) — [[User:Yosei|Yosei]] ([[User talk:Yosei|talk]]) 11:38, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | ||
:::This is what I love about XKCD, the jokes come with proofs. Does it depend on what order you apply them in? If you decrease the risk by 30%, you have 70%, then increase it by 300%, you get... 210%? Or 270%? Percentage points vs. percent again isn't it. Why is life so complicated? --[[User:192·168·0·1|192·168·0·1]] ([[User talk:192·168·0·1|talk]]) 12:46, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | :::This is what I love about XKCD, the jokes come with proofs. Does it depend on what order you apply them in? If you decrease the risk by 30%, you have 70%, then increase it by 300%, you get... 210%? Or 270%? Percentage points vs. percent again isn't it. Why is life so complicated? --[[User:192·168·0·1|192·168·0·1]] ([[User talk:192·168·0·1|talk]]) 12:46, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | ||
− | :It doesn't really matter because the whole thing is complete nonsense. You can't combine the risks unless you know how big they are relative to each other. Let's say 1,000 people stay inside. 2 are killed by a bear and 10 die of cardiovascular disease - 12 people in total. With the given percentage changes, of 1,000 people who go outside, 8 get killed by bears (300% increase) and 7 die of heart disease (30% decrease), a total of 15. It's more dangerous to go outside than stay in. However, if 250 of the people who stay inside die of heart disease, then we have 252 deaths in total for staying in and only 175+8=183 for going out | + | :It doesn't really matter because the whole thing is complete nonsense. You can't combine the risks unless you know how big they are relative to each other. Let's say 1,000 people stay inside. 2 are killed by a bear and 10 die of cardiovascular disease - 12 people in total. With the given percentage changes, of 1,000 people who go outside, 8 get killed by bears (300% increase) and 7 die of heart disease (30% decrease), a total of 15. It's more dangerous to go outside than stay in. However, if 250 of the people who stay inside die of heart disease, then we have 252 deaths in total for staying in and only 175+8=183 for going out. |
"That's a 280% increased" has a typo/grammaro. The last word should be "increase". [[User:Barmar|Barmar]] ([[User talk:Barmar|talk]]) 23:04, 28 March 2022 (UTC) | "That's a 280% increased" has a typo/grammaro. The last word should be "increase". [[User:Barmar|Barmar]] ([[User talk:Barmar|talk]]) 23:04, 28 March 2022 (UTC) | ||
:I think the actual typo is the "a" so should be "That's 280% increased" {{unsigned ip|162.158.146.69}} | :I think the actual typo is the "a" so should be "That's 280% increased" {{unsigned ip|162.158.146.69}} | ||
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Also what's an odds ratio?? ~~Bumpf {{unsigned ip|172.70.38.41}} | Also what's an odds ratio?? ~~Bumpf {{unsigned ip|172.70.38.41}} | ||
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I wonder if it's deliberate that there's actually less risk if you go outside 1 hour per day. --[[User:192·168·0·1|192·168·0·1]] ([[User talk:192·168·0·1|talk]]) 12:46, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | I wonder if it's deliberate that there's actually less risk if you go outside 1 hour per day. --[[User:192·168·0·1|192·168·0·1]] ([[User talk:192·168·0·1|talk]]) 12:46, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | ||
− | + | ==Odds ratio confusion?== | |
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I am very confused by the X axis of this comic, I feel like I must be misunderstanding how this works, but I thought I understood how odds ratios worked. Maybe not. | I am very confused by the X axis of this comic, I feel like I must be misunderstanding how this works, but I thought I understood how odds ratios worked. Maybe not. | ||
The graph "reads" that "In the reference situation, with zero hours spent outside, the odds ratio for head injuries from falling spacecraft debris is 1.0 ± 0." A 1.0 odds ratio means 1.0:1.0, or that either possibility is 50% likely. That is, there's an even chance your head will be injured by spacecraft debris or that it will not, ''if you stay indoors.'' That does not seem like it could be right, so can someone point me to my error? Thanks! [[User:JohnHawkinson|JohnHawkinson]] ([[User talk:JohnHawkinson|talk]]) 09:34, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | The graph "reads" that "In the reference situation, with zero hours spent outside, the odds ratio for head injuries from falling spacecraft debris is 1.0 ± 0." A 1.0 odds ratio means 1.0:1.0, or that either possibility is 50% likely. That is, there's an even chance your head will be injured by spacecraft debris or that it will not, ''if you stay indoors.'' That does not seem like it could be right, so can someone point me to my error? Thanks! [[User:JohnHawkinson|JohnHawkinson]] ([[User talk:JohnHawkinson|talk]]) 09:34, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | ||
:As best I can tell, this is taking odds as a ratio between ''any'' two events. Rather than the usual "success : failure" (or "happens : doesn't happen"), it's "this scenario happens : control scenario happens". By definition, the control scenario is set at 1.0, and something at a ratio of (say) 2.0 is twice as likely to happen. -- [[User:Peregrine|Peregrine]] ([[User talk:Peregrine|talk]]) 10:50, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | :As best I can tell, this is taking odds as a ratio between ''any'' two events. Rather than the usual "success : failure" (or "happens : doesn't happen"), it's "this scenario happens : control scenario happens". By definition, the control scenario is set at 1.0, and something at a ratio of (say) 2.0 is twice as likely to happen. -- [[User:Peregrine|Peregrine]] ([[User talk:Peregrine|talk]]) 10:50, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | ||
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+ | I definitely think we need to put something explaining what an odds ratio is. But since I feel the need to have it explained, I'm not going to be the one to explain it. --[[User:192·168·0·1|192·168·0·1]] ([[User talk:192·168·0·1|talk]]) 12:46, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | ||
− | + | == Per day == | |
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− | + | Looks like the comic has been updated to clarify that the number of hours is per day. I'll leave it to someone more experienced with this website to update it, but in any case it makes the note "It is very difficult to avoid being outside for more than four hours in a total lifetime" moot. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.114.147|172.70.114.147]] 12:31, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | |
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