Editing 1252: Increased Risk
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| title = Increased Risk | | title = Increased Risk | ||
| image = increased_risk.png | | image = increased_risk.png | ||
− | | titletext = You may point out that strictly speaking, you can use that statement to prove that all risks are | + | | titletext = You may point out that strictly speaking, you can use that statement to prove that all risks are tiny--to which I reply HOLY SHIT WATCH OUT FOR THAT DOG! |
}} | }} | ||
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==Explanation== | ==Explanation== | ||
− | The panel | + | {{incomplete}} |
− | + | The panel satirises the common misunderstanding of the concept of percentage. Quoting a percentage figure, without mentioning the base which this ratio acts on is meaningless (outside of arithmetic for arithmetic's sake). Most everyday communication however, succumbs to such incompleteness. In the aftermath of this ambiguity, people tend to conflate relative and absolute changes. | |
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− | + | If the probability of a shark attack at the North beach is 0.000001 (one in a million), then the probability of shark attack at the South beach is still 0.0000012 (1.2 in a million). The difference between these values is not enough to normally justify choosing one beach over the other, even though a "20% greater" chance sounds significant when stated out of this larger context. | |
− | + | [[Cueball]] parodies the concern by noting that by going a third time their chance of attack by dogs with handguns increases by 50%. If the chance of the dog attack is 0.000000001 (one in a billion) on each visit to the beach, then in after two visits the chance of attack is is about 0.000000002 whereas after three visits it becomes 0.000000003. This summing, however, reflects a common misunderstanding of statistics. While they experienced no attacks at the first two visits, the risk on this single trip is also only 0.000000001. The third visit doesn't increase the risk at this trip. | |
− | + | [[Beret Guy]] further misunderstands probability by believing that, since they haven't been attacked by dogs with handguns in their first two trips, the chance of attack by dogs with handguns is much higher on their third outing. The fault in the logic involves the lack of dependency of the events between successive visits, and is best illustrated with a coin flip: if I flip a (fair, neutral) coin 10 times in a row and each time it lands on "heads," then the odds of getting heads on the next coin flip is still 50%. In other words, past experience does not impact the fact that on the next coin flip, the odds of getting heads or tails are still 50/50. By extension, the odds of getting attacked by dogs with handguns is not greater on the third trip than it had been on the first two trips to the beach. | |
− | The | + | The title text discusses the argument that, if a tiny risk increased by 50% is still tiny, then since any probability can be reached by repeatedly increasing by 50%, then any probability is "tiny". That is, if you define any arbitrary value ''x'' greater than 0 as "tiny," then the statement that "a 50% increase in a tiny risk is still tiny" means that (100%+50%)*''x'' = 1.5''x'' is also "tiny." Thus, one could iteratively calculate ''x2'' = 1.5''x1'' until eventually arriving (after enough iterations) at a number that would be considered "large" by any reasonable person. [[Randall]] is about to debate this when he presumably sees a dog with a handgun. |
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==Transcript== | ==Transcript== | ||
− | + | :Ponytail: We should go to the north beach. Someone said the south beach has a 20% higher risk of shark attacks. | |
− | :Ponytail: We should go to the north beach. Someone said the south beach has a 20% higher risk of shark attacks. | + | :Cueball: Yeah, but statistically, taking three beach trips instead of two increases our odds of getting shot by a swimming dog carrying a handgun in its mouth by '''''50%!''''' |
− | :Cueball: Yeah, but statistically, taking three beach trips instead of two increases our odds of getting shot by a swimming dog carrying a handgun in its mouth by '''''50%''''' | + | :Beret Guy: Oh no! This is our third trip! |
− | :Beret Guy: Oh no! This is our third trip! | + | :[Reminder: A 50% increase in a tiny risk is ''still tiny''.] |
− | + | {{comic discussion}} | |
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− | + | [[Category:Friday comics]] | |
+ | [[Category:Comics from August]] | ||
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]] | [[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]] | ||
[[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]] | [[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]] | ||
[[Category:Comics featuring Beret Guy]] | [[Category:Comics featuring Beret Guy]] | ||
− | [[Category: | + | [[Category:Math]] |
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