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Title text: Sure, you can talk about per-capita adjustment, but if you want to solve the problem, it's obvious that this is the group you need to focus on.
|| This explanation may be incomplete or incorrect: Created by a LEFTY. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.|
The "base rate" is a type of base probability, which a statistical probability can be based on. The base rate fallacy is a type of error in which people are presented with the rate at which something occurs throughout an entire population along with more specific information information about a subset of that population, and tend to ignore the whole-population information in favor of the specific information. For instance, imagine a disease that is present in 1% of the population, for which there is a test with a 5% false-positive rate. This test might be presented as "95% accurate", and so people who receive a positive result from such a test are likely to think they have the disease. However, someone who receives a positive test result has only a 17% chance of actually having the disease; a much more likely reason for the positive result, occurring in 83% of all positive test results, is a false (wrong) positive.
In this case, the joke is that 90% of people are right-handed, so Cueball's claim that right-handers commit 90% of base-rate errors is itself a base-rate error. Further, the pointer is held in Cueball's right hand, indicating that he too is right handed as he makes the base rate error.
Something similar occurs in 1138: Heatmap, where Cueball makes inferences simply based on a population map of the US, instead of statistical evidence.
|| This transcript is incomplete. Please help editing it! Thanks.
- [Cueball standing in front of a screen, holding a pointer. The screen shows a bar graph with 2 bars, labeled "L" and "R". The "R" bar is significantly greater than "L".]
- Cueball: Remember, right-handed people commit 90% of all base rate errors.
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