Editing 2107: Launch Risk
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==Explanation== | ==Explanation== | ||
− | This comic deals with | + | This comic deals with statistics based on a large population, such as all Americans, when the people in question are in a smaller group with vastly different statistics, such as astronauts. |
− | A | + | A capsule is about to be launched into space. On the left side, there is an announcement: "T-MINUS 20...19..." The "T" stands for the time at which the rocket is scheduled to be launched. T minus 20 indicate 20 seconds before the launch, so it's basically a countdown for 20 seconds before the rocket is launched. In the capsule, one astronaut asks another how they are feeling. The second one admits to feeling nervous. The first one offers the supposedly reassuring observation that they are more likely to be struck by lightning than to be selected as an astronaut. Such "more likely to be struck by lightning" comparisons are commonly used to illustrate that a particular risk is very remote, and thus should not be considered particularly frightening. |
− | The second | + | The second one agrees with the first one for a moment, but then realizes that something is wrong with the argument. Presumably, they realize that the likelihood of being ''selected as an astronaut'' is a moot point -- they are there because they ''already have'' been selected as an astronaut. That's why the first one's intention is more likely trolling than being really caring about the second one's nervousness. His words is only causing more confusion for the second one, that highlights the humorousness of the comic. The relevant concern is the risk level faced by an astronaut, given that they already hold that position. Unfortunately, the historical record shows that this risk is somewhat high, certainly far above the minuscule risk of being struck by lightning. |
− | The | + | The lifetime odds of being struck by lightning are approximately 1 in 14,600 (approximately 10% of those struck by lightning are killed) [https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning-odds How Dangerous is Lightning?]. |
− | The title text | + | The title text refers to another common comparison, the risk of a shark attack. In addition to shark attacks being rather rare, they are also not as likely to kill the victim as is commonly assumed. Most people attacked by sharks, and most people launched into space, live through the experience. However, it remains true that both are considerably riskier than most common activities like car accident (1 in 583 deaths) or unintentional poisoning (1 in 70 deaths). |
+ | ([https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-mortality-risk]) | ||
+ | Of the 557 people who have been in Earth orbit, 18 (3%) have died in related accidents, not specifically at launch([https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight-related_accidents_and_incidents List of spaceflight-related accidents and incidents], [https://www.worldspaceflight.com/bios/stats.php Astronaut/Cosmonaut Statistics]). Again, this is not really comforting, since probability of dying in a space launch is not lesser than probability of dying in a shark attack for a random person, but only lesser than the probability of dying of a shark attack ''given that you are attacked by a shark''. | ||
− | + | A tall rocket, such as depicted would be more likely to be struck by lightning than nearby structures. However launch controllers monitor weather carefully to reduce the chances of attempting to launch when lightning is likely. | |
− | A | + | A space craft launch can trigger lightning, by creating a conductive path through charge bearing clouds, which would normally not produce lightning. Apollo 12 was struck by triggered lightning twice during launch phase, resulting in the entire operational platform shutting down from overload. Thankfully backup systems allowed the flight to proceed. For more information, see [https://www.nasa.gov/audience/foreducators/9-12/features/F_Lightning_and_Launches_9_12.html NASA: Lightning and Launches] |
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The perceived value of risk is a recurring topic and is also featured in [[795: Conditional Risk]] and [[1252: Increased Risk]]. | The perceived value of risk is a recurring topic and is also featured in [[795: Conditional Risk]] and [[1252: Increased Risk]]. | ||
==Transcript== | ==Transcript== | ||
− | :[A | + | {{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}} |
+ | |||
+ | :[A rocket is about to launch.] | ||
:Astronaut 1: How you feeling? | :Astronaut 1: How you feeling? | ||
:Astronaut 2: Honestly, pretty nervous. | :Astronaut 2: Honestly, pretty nervous. | ||
− | :Astronaut 1: I know it seems dangerous, but just remember: you're more likely to be struck by | + | :Astronaut 1: I know it seems dangerous, but just remember: you're more likely to be struck by lightning than to be selected to become an astronaut. |
:Astronaut 2: Oh that's a good- | :Astronaut 2: Oh that's a good- | ||
:Astronaut 2: ...Wait. | :Astronaut 2: ...Wait. | ||
:Countdown: T-Minus 20...19... | :Countdown: T-Minus 20...19... | ||
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{{comic discussion}} | {{comic discussion}} | ||
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[[Category:Statistics]] | [[Category:Statistics]] | ||
[[Category:Space]] | [[Category:Space]] | ||
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