Editing 2370: Prediction
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This comic is about misunderstanding {{w|probability}}. Sometimes people will incorrectly assume that if two events are possible, and one of them is more likely than the other to occur, then the first event WILL occur; or, that if one names two or more outcomes they are equally likely to occur when in fact they might have different probabilities. | This comic is about misunderstanding {{w|probability}}. Sometimes people will incorrectly assume that if two events are possible, and one of them is more likely than the other to occur, then the first event WILL occur; or, that if one names two or more outcomes they are equally likely to occur when in fact they might have different probabilities. | ||
β | Saying that one event is more likely to happen than another is not the same as saying that the first event is definitely going to happen. A statement like "event A has a 70% probability of happening" | + | Saying that one event is more likely to happen than another is not the same as saying that the first event is definitely going to happen. A statement like "event A has a 70% probability of happening" often misleads people into believing that event A is inevitable, while in fact 3 times out of 10 event B will happen instead of A. |
Some don't like probability statements because they are not definite and therefore cannot be proven wrong. For example, if a probability statement says "event A has a 1% probability of happening" and event A actually happens, that does not prove the statement wrong, because the statement admits of the possibility of event A happening. | Some don't like probability statements because they are not definite and therefore cannot be proven wrong. For example, if a probability statement says "event A has a 1% probability of happening" and event A actually happens, that does not prove the statement wrong, because the statement admits of the possibility of event A happening. |