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==Explanation== | ==Explanation== | ||
− | This comic is an update to [[1122: Electoral Precedent]], adding "broken precedents" for the US presidential elections in 2016 and 2020 | + | {{incomplete|Created by an UNBEATABLE DELAWAREAN WITH A WEBSITE. Please explain how. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}} |
+ | |||
+ | This comic is an update to [[1122: Electoral Precedent]], adding "broken precedents" for the US presidential elections in 2016 and 2020. The majority of the comic's panels are duplicates from 1122, with the exception of the 2012 panel (modified to show that Obama did in fact break the streak), the 2016 panel (added to reflect the election of Donald Trump), and the two 2020 panels. It continues the theme of pointing out that an arbitrary 'precedent' can always be invoked to predict the outcome of an election. Presidential elections happen rarely enough that each is a unique event, and ''something'' is always happening for the first time. Like with the other examples, the precedents mentioned here mix factors that could plausibly impact the election (such as one candidate having been impeached), with precedents that are just a product of time and chance (like a successful challenger having a website). | ||
The final two panels again show how, no matter which candidate won in 2020, it would be a 'first' in some way. | The final two panels again show how, no matter which candidate won in 2020, it would be a 'first' in some way. | ||
− | * No sitting president who was impeached was even nominated for the office again until Donald Trump. (Only two other US presidents have been impeached. Bill Clinton couldn't run again afterward due to term limits, Andrew Johnson failed to be nominated at the 1868 Democratic Convention.) After the election, it remains true that no impeached president has ever been re-elected. | + | * No sitting president who was impeached was even nominated for the office again until Donald Trump. (Only two other US presidents have been impeached. Bill Clinton couldn't run again afterward due to term limits, Andrew Johnson failed to be nominated at the 1868 Democratic Convention.) After the election, it remains true that no impeached president has ever been re-elected. |
− | * Prior to the 2020 election, no challenger with a website ever won. This, however, is easily explained by the fact that incumbent presidents usually win, and websites are | + | * Prior to the 2020 election, no challenger with a website ever won. This, however, is easily explained by the fact that incumbent presidents usually win, and websites are fairly new technology. The last time a challenger beat an incumbent was in 1992, before internet use was widespread. By 1996 that had changed and both the incumbent [http://www.livingroomcandidate.org/websites/cg96/ Bill Clinton campaign] and the challenger [http://www.dolekemp96.org/main.htm Bob Dole campaign] had websites that look very simple by today's standards. The title text points out that one could just as easily say that incumbents with websites are unbeatable, until that precedent was broken in 2020. |
− | The 2020 election | + | The 2020 election is also precedent-breaking in a few ways that Randall didn't mention: |
− | * At 78, | + | * At 78, Joe Biden will be the oldest president ever on the day of his inauguration. |
− | * Biden's running mate Kamala Harris | + | * Biden's running mate Kamala Harris will be the first-ever female vice president, first Black vice president, and the first Asian vice president (her parents are from Jamaica and India). She'll also be the first Democratic vice president from the West. |
− | * Biden received over | + | * Biden received over 76 million votes, the highest ever, beating Obama 2008's previous record of just under 69.5 million votes. The second highest raw vote total was for Trump, with approximately 71.5 million votes, ''also'' beating Obama 2008. Turnout as a percentage of the eligible population was the highest in over a century. Unlike the under the other precedents, however, this one was not an inevitable outcome of a Biden-Harris victory. |
Also, Biden is the first president from the state of Delaware, thus he broke the "precedent" that Delawareans can't win. Randall then proceeds to combine these 2 facts to create a new precedent: Only Delawareans can defeat incumbents with a website. | Also, Biden is the first president from the state of Delaware, thus he broke the "precedent" that Delawareans can't win. Randall then proceeds to combine these 2 facts to create a new precedent: Only Delawareans can defeat incumbents with a website. | ||
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|- | |- | ||
|2012 | |2012 | ||
− | |Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. ... Until Obama did. | + | |Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. ... Until Obama did. (Updated) |
|Mitt Romney stood 6' 2", an inch taller than President Obama. Nonetheless, Obama was re-elected for a second term. | |Mitt Romney stood 6' 2", an inch taller than President Obama. Nonetheless, Obama was re-elected for a second term. | ||
− | | | + | | |
|- | |- | ||
|2016 | |2016 | ||
|No one has become president without government or military experience. ... Until Trump did. | |No one has become president without government or military experience. ... Until Trump did. | ||
− | |Every president prior to Trump | + | |Every president prior to Trump has either been a general in the US Army, a congressman, or a state governor. |
− | | | + | | |
|- | |- | ||
|2020? | |2020? | ||
|No one has won after being impeached. ✓ | |No one has won after being impeached. ✓ | ||
− | |None of the | + | |None of the three prior presidents who were impeached even ran for re-election. This is the first time this specific condition has even been tested. |
− | |Trump was impeached, | + | |Trump was impeached, did run and has <!-- as of current information! --> lost, so this test 'remains' true at this point in history. |
|- | |- | ||
|2020? | |2020? | ||
|No challenger with a website has won. X | |No challenger with a website has won. X | ||
− | |The ''possibility'' of having a website only arose in the | + | |The ''possibility'' of having a website only arose in the '90s and Bill Clinton seems to not have had one when he succeeded Bush Sr. Although websites became increasingly ubiquitous, no president since had ever been defeated by their respective challengers. |
− | |"...until Biden | + | |"...until Biden" |
+ | (This may be the frame used in future updates.) | ||
|} | |} | ||
==Transcript== | ==Transcript== | ||
+ | {{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}} | ||
+ | |||
:The problem with statements like | :The problem with statements like | ||
:"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>" | :"No <party> candidate has won the election without <state>" | ||
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:<font color="red"><nowiki>★</nowiki> Updated for 2020 ★</font> | :<font color="red"><nowiki>★</nowiki> Updated for 2020 ★</font> | ||
− | |||
:1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was. | :1788... No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was. | ||
:1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington. | :1792... No incumbent has ever been reelected. ...Until Washington. | ||
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:1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did. | :1876... No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did. | ||
:1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock. | :1880... As goes California, so goes the nation. ...Until it went Hancock. | ||
− | :1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine. | + | :1884... Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine. |
:1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was. | :1888... No sitting president has been beaten since the Civil War. ...Cleveland was. | ||
:1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland. | :1892... No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland. | ||
− | :1896... Tall | + | :1896... Tall midwesterners are unbeatable. ...Bryan wasn't. |
:1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was. | :1900... No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was. | ||
− | :1904... No one under 45 has | + | :1904... No one under 45 has become president. ...Roosevelt did. |
:1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft. | :1908... No Republican who hasn't served in the military has won. ...Until Taft. | ||
− | : | + | :1912... After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither. |
:1916... No Democrat has won while losing West Virginia. ...Wilson did. | :1916... No Democrat has won while losing West Virginia. ...Wilson did. | ||
:1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding. | :1920... No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding. | ||
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:1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith. | :1928... No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith. | ||
:1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did. | :1932... No Democrat has won since women secured the right to vote. ...Until FDR did. | ||
− | :1936... No | + | :1936... No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was. |
:1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did. | :1940... No one has won a third term. ...Until FDR did. | ||
:1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did. | :1944... No Democrat has won during wartime. ...Until FDR did. | ||
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:1960... Catholics can't win. ...Until Kennedy. | :1960... Catholics can't win. ...Until Kennedy. | ||
:1964... Every Republican who's taken Louisiana has won. ...Until Goldwater. | :1964... Every Republican who's taken Louisiana has won. ...Until Goldwater. | ||
− | : | + | :1968... No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon. |
− | : | + | :1972... Quakers can't win twice. ...Until Nixon did. |
:1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did. | :1976... No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did. | ||
− | :1980... No one has been elected | + | :1980... No one has been elected President after a divorce. ...Until Reagan was. |
:1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was. | :1984... No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was. | ||
− | : | + | :1988... No one with two middle names has become president. ...Until "Herbert Walker." |
− | : | + | :1992... No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did. |
− | : | + | :1996... No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob. |
:2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did. | :2000... No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did. | ||
− | : | + | :2004... No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did. |
:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did. | :2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did. | ||
:2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. ... Until Obama did. | :2012... Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. ... Until Obama did. | ||
− | : | + | :2016... No one has become president without government or military experience. ... Until Trump did. |
:2020? No one has won after being impeached. <big><font color="green">✓</font></big> | :2020? No one has won after being impeached. <big><font color="green">✓</font></big> | ||
:2020? No challenger with a website has won. <big><font color="red">X</font></big> | :2020? No challenger with a website has won. <big><font color="red">X</font></big> | ||
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:Congratulations to President-Elect Joe Biden for breaking the website curse! | :Congratulations to President-Elect Joe Biden for breaking the website curse! | ||
− | == | + | ==Errors== |
− | * This comic seems to have used the same image as [[1122: Electoral Precedent]], and so the original version of this comic had a ghost image of the original 2012 2nd "streak": "No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost." | + | *This comic seems to have used the same image as [[1122: Electoral Precedent]], and so the original version of this comic had a ghost image of the original 2012 2nd "streak": "No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost." |
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{{comic discussion}} | {{comic discussion}} | ||
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[[Category:Politics]] | [[Category:Politics]] | ||
[[Category:Elections]] | [[Category:Elections]] | ||
− | [[Category:Comics featuring | + | [[Category:Comics featuring politicians]] |
[[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]] | [[Category:Comics featuring John F. Kennedy]] | ||
[[Category:Comics with color]] | [[Category:Comics with color]] | ||
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