Editing Talk:1132: Frequentists vs. Bayesians
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Something should be added about the prior probability of the sun going nova, as that is the primary substantive point. "The neutrino detector is evidence that the Sun has exploded. It's showing an observation which is 35 times more likely to appear if the Sun has exploded than if it hasn't (likelihood ratio of 35:1). The Bayesian just doesn't think that's strong enough evidence to overcome the prior odds, i.e., after multiplying the prior odds by 35 they still aren't very high." - http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/fe5/xkcd_frequentist_vs_bayesians/ [[Special:Contributions/209.65.52.92|209.65.52.92]] 23:51, 9 November 2012 (UTC) | Something should be added about the prior probability of the sun going nova, as that is the primary substantive point. "The neutrino detector is evidence that the Sun has exploded. It's showing an observation which is 35 times more likely to appear if the Sun has exploded than if it hasn't (likelihood ratio of 35:1). The Bayesian just doesn't think that's strong enough evidence to overcome the prior odds, i.e., after multiplying the prior odds by 35 they still aren't very high." - http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/fe5/xkcd_frequentist_vs_bayesians/ [[Special:Contributions/209.65.52.92|209.65.52.92]] 23:51, 9 November 2012 (UTC) | ||
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This comic hurts my head. [[Special:Contributions/173.245.54.7|173.245.54.7]] 21:44, 12 August 2019 (UTC) | This comic hurts my head. [[Special:Contributions/173.245.54.7|173.245.54.7]] 21:44, 12 August 2019 (UTC) | ||
− | It is my feeling that sloppy or machiavellian academics have come to use the term "Bayesian" to mean something more like "we adjusted it to what we felt was most reasonable", which introduces so much bias that it actually leaves one unable to determine the scientific validity of the results. I was reading [https://academic.oup.com/beheco/article/23/3/619/224216 a publication], today, that made me think of that and look up this comic. | + | It is my feeling that sloppy or machiavellian academics have come to use the term "Bayesian" to mean something more like "we adjusted it to what we felt was most reasonable", which introduces so much bias that it actually leaves one unable to determine the scientific validity of the results. I was reading [https://academic.oup.com/beheco/article/23/3/619/224216 a publication], today, that made me think of that and look up this comic. |
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