Editing Talk:1827: Survivorship Bias
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Is "defeatest" a typo or a joke? I've never seen Randall make a typo before, but I also don't get the joke if there is one. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.2.184|162.158.2.184]] 04:28, 21 April 2017 (UTC) | Is "defeatest" a typo or a joke? I've never seen Randall make a typo before, but I also don't get the joke if there is one. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.2.184|162.158.2.184]] 04:28, 21 April 2017 (UTC) | ||
:Definitely a typo. [[User:Cardboardmech|Cardboardmech]] ([[User talk:Cardboardmech|talk]]) 04:59, 21 April 2017 (UTC) | :Definitely a typo. [[User:Cardboardmech|Cardboardmech]] ([[User talk:Cardboardmech|talk]]) 04:59, 21 April 2017 (UTC) | ||
− | ::At first I thought this was an unfamiliarity with the word, and was about to talk about how it's a real word and what it means, then I noticed the spelling, LOL! I KNOW I've seen such spelling errors several times before - often getting fixed in the next day or two - but I couldn't provide examples even if my life depended on it. And yeah, I'd say this is more "spelling error" than "typo", the I is nowhere near the E on any keyboard. :) - NiceGuy1 [[Special:Contributions/108.162.219.88|108.162.219.88]] 05:58 | + | ::At first I thought this was an unfamiliarity with the word, and was about to talk about how it's a real word and what it means, then I noticed the spelling, LOL! I KNOW I've seen such spelling errors several times before - often getting fixed in the next day or two - but I couldn't provide examples even if my life depended on it. And yeah, I'd say this is more "spelling error" than "typo", the I is nowhere near the E on any keyboard. :) - NiceGuy1 [[Special:Contributions/108.162.219.88|108.162.219.88]] 05:58, 21 April 2017 (UTC) |
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:::If itdoesn't get fixed, it might be some weird pun on "[survival of] the fittest". Wouldn't make a lot of sense in the context of the sentence though [[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.233|162.158.91.233]] 09:12, 21 April 2017 (UTC) | :::If itdoesn't get fixed, it might be some weird pun on "[survival of] the fittest". Wouldn't make a lot of sense in the context of the sentence though [[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.233|162.158.91.233]] 09:12, 21 April 2017 (UTC) | ||
::::sometimes Randall do not fix errors, so nothing can be concluded on that (would it be survivorship bias to do so? ;-) How should the word be spelled (I'm not native English speaking), and does the word even exist? The spelling should be mentioned when someone explains the title text. I'm not up for it. And then if it is corrected later, it should go into the trivia section as a corrected error. --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 10:29, 21 April 2017 (UTC) | ::::sometimes Randall do not fix errors, so nothing can be concluded on that (would it be survivorship bias to do so? ;-) How should the word be spelled (I'm not native English speaking), and does the word even exist? The spelling should be mentioned when someone explains the title text. I'm not up for it. And then if it is corrected later, it should go into the trivia section as a corrected error. --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 10:29, 21 April 2017 (UTC) | ||
− | + | It has been corrected to defeatist [[User:Rtanenbaum|Rtanenbaum]] ([[User talk:Rtanenbaum|talk]]) 13:28, 21 April 2017 (UTC) | |
Transcript's kind of done. [[User:Cardboardmech|Cardboardmech]] ([[User talk:Cardboardmech|talk]]) 05:17, 21 April 2017 (UTC) | Transcript's kind of done. [[User:Cardboardmech|Cardboardmech]] ([[User talk:Cardboardmech|talk]]) 05:17, 21 April 2017 (UTC) | ||
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: Never heard of such things, either... [[User:Elektrizikekswerk|Elektrizikekswerk]] ([[User talk:Elektrizikekswerk|talk]]) 08:27, 21 April 2017 (UTC) | : Never heard of such things, either... [[User:Elektrizikekswerk|Elektrizikekswerk]] ([[User talk:Elektrizikekswerk|talk]]) 08:27, 21 April 2017 (UTC) | ||
:This is a thing that some American lotteries do. It reduces the amount that you have to pay in taxes. [[User:Mulan15262|Mulan15262]] ([[User talk:Mulan15262|talk]]) 12:49, 21 April 2017 (UTC) | :This is a thing that some American lotteries do. It reduces the amount that you have to pay in taxes. [[User:Mulan15262|Mulan15262]] ([[User talk:Mulan15262|talk]]) 12:49, 21 April 2017 (UTC) | ||
− | : I don't play the lottery but I have heard of this practice and I think its typical here in the states. As I remember, you have the option of accepting 50% of the prize as an immediate payment or of accepting the full amount in installments over 20 years. With a progressive tax schedule this of course will affect the actual amount received and available for use. The use of payments helps the lottery itself as well and the | + | : I don't play the lottery but I have heard of this practice and I think its typical here in the states. As I remember, you have the option of accepting 50% of the prize as an immediate payment or of accepting the full amount in installments over 20 years. With a progressive tax schedule this of course will affect the actual amount received and available for use. The use of payments helps the lottery itself as well and the 50% over 20 years option is no accident. The lottery can take the 50% it would have paid directly and invest it. A doubling period of 20 years needs an annual return on investment of only 3.6% (approx) so it works out to be a good deal for both parties. Unless of course your life expectancy is less than 20 years! [[User:ExternalMonolog|ExternalMonolog]] ([[User talk:ExternalMonolog|talk]]) 00:31, 22 April 2017 (UTC) |
The title text is written in the style of an inspirational/motivational speech. Do not be deterred, you can do ANYTHING. Sebastian --[[Special:Contributions/172.68.110.58|172.68.110.58]] 07:05, 21 April 2017 (UTC) | The title text is written in the style of an inspirational/motivational speech. Do not be deterred, you can do ANYTHING. Sebastian --[[Special:Contributions/172.68.110.58|172.68.110.58]] 07:05, 21 April 2017 (UTC) | ||
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If I may suggest, survivor bias is a special example of Bastiat's "That Which Is Seen, and That Which Is Unseen", aka, the Broken Window Fallacy. The logic failure lies in paying attention to only part of the results, not all of them. I'd extend this to argue for acceptance of "The Ends Justify The Means... Buy You Gotta Consider ALL The Ends, Not Just Some Of Them". Saving 100 people is one great end. But if you also kill 10,000 of them, but in the background, where they don't stand out, the ends aren't justified. | If I may suggest, survivor bias is a special example of Bastiat's "That Which Is Seen, and That Which Is Unseen", aka, the Broken Window Fallacy. The logic failure lies in paying attention to only part of the results, not all of them. I'd extend this to argue for acceptance of "The Ends Justify The Means... Buy You Gotta Consider ALL The Ends, Not Just Some Of Them". Saving 100 people is one great end. But if you also kill 10,000 of them, but in the background, where they don't stand out, the ends aren't justified. | ||
--[[Special:Contributions/108.162.212.227|108.162.212.227]] 19:54, 21 April 2017 (UTC) | --[[Special:Contributions/108.162.212.227|108.162.212.227]] 19:54, 21 April 2017 (UTC) | ||
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