Editing Talk:1885: Ensemble Model
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:''Historical rain data are used to estimate the probability of rainstorms of a certain size and duration occurring, e.g. the {{w|Flood Studies Report|Flood Studies Report}} in the UK. Randall here is suggesting that an alternate universe exists where these estimates are higher (and presumably lower) in some areas, and that the estimates of rainfall in this alternate universe is accounted for within ensemble modelling in our own universe. This sort of change in prediction is frequently used when accounting for 'worst case scenarios' in the design processes of structures such as dams. However, the figures to the left appear to indicate time-dependent models, which are typically physics based, e.g. {{w|Large eddy simulation|Large Eddy Simulation}} models or other atmospheric process based models. In those sorts of models, likelihood of rain is usually a prediction rather than a parameter, but might be used as a parameter in a second iteration.'' | :''Historical rain data are used to estimate the probability of rainstorms of a certain size and duration occurring, e.g. the {{w|Flood Studies Report|Flood Studies Report}} in the UK. Randall here is suggesting that an alternate universe exists where these estimates are higher (and presumably lower) in some areas, and that the estimates of rainfall in this alternate universe is accounted for within ensemble modelling in our own universe. This sort of change in prediction is frequently used when accounting for 'worst case scenarios' in the design processes of structures such as dams. However, the figures to the left appear to indicate time-dependent models, which are typically physics based, e.g. {{w|Large eddy simulation|Large Eddy Simulation}} models or other atmospheric process based models. In those sorts of models, likelihood of rain is usually a prediction rather than a parameter, but might be used as a parameter in a second iteration.'' | ||
Check my more realistic explanations on the first three outcomes, they are no jokes.--[[User:Dgbrt|Dgbrt]] ([[User talk:Dgbrt|talk]]) 15:01, 7 September 2017 (UTC) | Check my more realistic explanations on the first three outcomes, they are no jokes.--[[User:Dgbrt|Dgbrt]] ([[User talk:Dgbrt|talk]]) 15:01, 7 September 2017 (UTC) | ||
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