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Randall appears to express a "99th percentile fallacy", in which intelligent people (1%ers of a type) assume that all people will reason in the same way that they do, and will arrive at the same conclusions, if they will only try. The Wikipedia article on [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaccine_hesitancy vaccine hesitancy] contains (rough estimate) some 12,500 words, most of which discuss factors associated with the origin (a long time ago), propagation, and persistence of anti-vaccination movements and other forms of vaccine hesitancy. Twelve thousand words is not congruent with "simple". A common thread may be: the embracing and aggressive assertion of vaccine hesitancy, irrespective of any factual accuracy, represents the assertion of power over the intellectual 1%, which is attractive. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty_Meter_Telescope Especially when it works.] [[Special:Contributions/172.70.210.45|172.70.210.45]] 07:09, 25 July 2023 (UTC)
 
Randall appears to express a "99th percentile fallacy", in which intelligent people (1%ers of a type) assume that all people will reason in the same way that they do, and will arrive at the same conclusions, if they will only try. The Wikipedia article on [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaccine_hesitancy vaccine hesitancy] contains (rough estimate) some 12,500 words, most of which discuss factors associated with the origin (a long time ago), propagation, and persistence of anti-vaccination movements and other forms of vaccine hesitancy. Twelve thousand words is not congruent with "simple". A common thread may be: the embracing and aggressive assertion of vaccine hesitancy, irrespective of any factual accuracy, represents the assertion of power over the intellectual 1%, which is attractive. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty_Meter_Telescope Especially when it works.] [[Special:Contributions/172.70.210.45|172.70.210.45]] 07:09, 25 July 2023 (UTC)
 
:Appealing to wiki page word count is truly a decision. By that metric the capitalization of the i in star trek into darkness is more complicated than vaccines. https://xkcd.com/1167/ [[Special:Contributions/172.70.207.30|172.70.207.30]] 18:16, 4 August 2023 (UTC)
 
  
 
: It's true that people have made the topic as lot more complex than it actually is, by coming up with many rationalisations and conspiracies to try to justify being anti-vax, and drawing unjustified conclusions from anecdotal correlations. [[Special:Contributions/172.71.160.55|172.71.160.55]] 12:59, 25 July 2023 (UTC) B
 
: It's true that people have made the topic as lot more complex than it actually is, by coming up with many rationalisations and conspiracies to try to justify being anti-vax, and drawing unjustified conclusions from anecdotal correlations. [[Special:Contributions/172.71.160.55|172.71.160.55]] 12:59, 25 July 2023 (UTC) B
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I added a bunch of info, including a disclaimer to take this with a grain of salt. I normally don't comment on Randall's political comics, as I disagree with nearly all of them, but this one irritates me more than most and borders dangerously close to misinformation. Randall is a physicist. I don't know his familiarity with the virology world, but I would presume not much.  
 
I added a bunch of info, including a disclaimer to take this with a grain of salt. I normally don't comment on Randall's political comics, as I disagree with nearly all of them, but this one irritates me more than most and borders dangerously close to misinformation. Randall is a physicist. I don't know his familiarity with the virology world, but I would presume not much.  
 
I'm a biologist by degree ''and'' career. Emphasis on microbiology. I'm not vaccinated for Covid-19. I ''never'' will be. I am vaccinated for everything else. I don't trust the vaccine for a number of reasons, not just because there are a statistically significant number of cases of severe harm and death. [[User:Darkwolf0218|Darkwolf0218]] ([[User talk:Darkwolf0218|talk]]) 07:52, 25 July 2023 (UTC)
 
I'm a biologist by degree ''and'' career. Emphasis on microbiology. I'm not vaccinated for Covid-19. I ''never'' will be. I am vaccinated for everything else. I don't trust the vaccine for a number of reasons, not just because there are a statistically significant number of cases of severe harm and death. [[User:Darkwolf0218|Darkwolf0218]] ([[User talk:Darkwolf0218|talk]]) 07:52, 25 July 2023 (UTC)
: That, my friend, is an appeal to authority - an all-too-common logical fallacy. Yes, Randall may be a physicist and you may be a biologist. But that represents absolutely ZERO evidence that you are right and he is wrong. It is a complete and utter non-argument. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.43.139|172.69.43.139]] 15:29, 6 November 2023 (UTC)
 
 
:What is your personal definition of "statistically significant number of cases of severe harm and death"? is it greater, by any chance, than the risk of death by NOT taking a vaccine? [[User:These Are Not The Comments You Are Looking For|These Are Not The Comments You Are Looking For]] ([[User talk:These Are Not The Comments You Are Looking For|talk]]) 02:09, 1 August 2023 (UTC)
 
:What is your personal definition of "statistically significant number of cases of severe harm and death"? is it greater, by any chance, than the risk of death by NOT taking a vaccine? [[User:These Are Not The Comments You Are Looking For|These Are Not The Comments You Are Looking For]] ([[User talk:These Are Not The Comments You Are Looking For|talk]]) 02:09, 1 August 2023 (UTC)
  
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::: I'm not too inclined to dig through a bunch of studies (and also other studies, and responses, and breakdowns, and such) to see what's up. But also, it's kind of a "boy who cried wolf" situation. Anti-vax has made so many patently absurd claims, misrepresentations and blatant lies, that I'm not too inclined to put much weight into any further claims, nor evaluate them in much detail. And no, that's not an ad hominem fallacy: I'm not saying you're necessarily wrong, I'm just saying I don't have a good reason to think you may be right, and I have better things to spend my time on. I'm happy enough to let scientists investigate those claims, and update their consensus and public statements, along with medical treatments, appropriately (because, even if granting you that it's the worst possible case, which it most likely isn't and doesn't seem to be, none of what you cited demonstrates that vaccines were the wrong decision, given what we knew at the time, nor that anti-vax was justified - the essence of science is to learn new things, and update our beliefs appropriately, not to believe unjustified things because we may one day learn new information which justifies it). Also, the claim was never that vaccines carry ZERO risk, which seems to be all that all your links can "debunk", from a cursory glance. All medicine carries some risk, the question is whether the risk of the vaccine is worse than the risk of the disease, which I don't see addressed there, and which still seems highly doubtful, given how many confirmed '''deaths''' we have from Covid. [[Special:Contributions/172.71.246.136|172.71.246.136]] 19:05, 28 July 2023 (UTC) B
 
::: I'm not too inclined to dig through a bunch of studies (and also other studies, and responses, and breakdowns, and such) to see what's up. But also, it's kind of a "boy who cried wolf" situation. Anti-vax has made so many patently absurd claims, misrepresentations and blatant lies, that I'm not too inclined to put much weight into any further claims, nor evaluate them in much detail. And no, that's not an ad hominem fallacy: I'm not saying you're necessarily wrong, I'm just saying I don't have a good reason to think you may be right, and I have better things to spend my time on. I'm happy enough to let scientists investigate those claims, and update their consensus and public statements, along with medical treatments, appropriately (because, even if granting you that it's the worst possible case, which it most likely isn't and doesn't seem to be, none of what you cited demonstrates that vaccines were the wrong decision, given what we knew at the time, nor that anti-vax was justified - the essence of science is to learn new things, and update our beliefs appropriately, not to believe unjustified things because we may one day learn new information which justifies it). Also, the claim was never that vaccines carry ZERO risk, which seems to be all that all your links can "debunk", from a cursory glance. All medicine carries some risk, the question is whether the risk of the vaccine is worse than the risk of the disease, which I don't see addressed there, and which still seems highly doubtful, given how many confirmed '''deaths''' we have from Covid. [[Special:Contributions/172.71.246.136|172.71.246.136]] 19:05, 28 July 2023 (UTC) B
 
:::: Hey B. Thanks for sharing your concerns. I understand your hesitation to "antivax" ideas, however, I hope you can see that we always need to carefully examine the effects of '''any''' treatment for prolonged periods of time to establish their safety profile. We need access to the data so anyone can cross verify hypotheses, and we need to keep an open mind. Frankly, '''I have always hoped in my heart that covid vaccines are 100% safe, that is because I love so many people who have chosen to take this treatment'''. However, there is evidence (for example see the studies cited in my comment above) that this is not the case. Finding information about what is going on with the people who were harmed can help pave the way for how to help them heal. These are real people, marginal or not, tiny percentage or not, I want to find information that might to help them.
 
:::: Regarding to whether the vaccine is worse than covid or not, consider that encoding an antigen into the vaccine (the spike protein) means that we need to study the safety profile of the antigen. As it turns out, the spike protein itself is pathogenic (see references in above comment), meaning that covid harms the body (in part) because of this specific protein. Some vaccines have a modified version of the protein that is meant to inactivate its capability to interface with ACE2 receptors. There remain some open questions. Mainly, we need to establish the safety profile of the modified S-protein encoded in those vaccines. There is reason for concern, as there is evidence that normal S-protein, as well as the S1 subunit can  can disrupt and cross the blood brain barrier, induce inflammation, induce clotting, and induce the formation of lewy bodies in the brain. This is really bad news for anyone who has had covid in their brain. It is also cause for us to pause and consider the safety of the current generation vaccines, for which there is evidence that some of them can result in detectable levels of spike and S1 in plasma [https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8241425/ here]. I put forth these questions:
 
:::: '''Should we really be injecting people with the template for S-protein, modified or not?'''
 
:::: '''How do the modifications to the mRNA made in some vaccines change the resulting behavior of the protein? Does it become less pathogenic? Which effects are lessened?'''
 
:::: '''Can we find a more innocuous protein of the virus to choose as an antigen?'''
 
:::: '''Could we find a protein that is part of the virus and could work as an antigen but that mutates less readily?'''
 
:::: This is how I see things, not necessarily close to right. I hope I'm entirely wrong, and so, I keep looking for studies proving me wrong. Once again, thank you fellow science enthusiasts, and '''I look forward to your help in finding studies that support the safety of these products.'''. What does this have to do with the comic? Well.... this is not simple. At all. Cueball is in denial.[[User:Scienceizkool|Scienceizkool]] ([[User talk:Scienceizkool|talk]]) 19:30, 1 August 2023 (UTC)
 
::::: '''Should we really be injecting people with the template for S-protein, modified or not?'''
 
::::: If it's better for public health than not, then yes.
 
::::: '''How do the modifications to the mRNA made in some vaccines change the resulting behavior of the protein? Does it become less pathogenic? Which effects are lessened?'''
 
::::: Is it more pathogenic than Covid? Probably not.
 
::::: '''Can we find a more innocuous protein of the virus to choose as an antigen?'''
 
::::: There are always possible improvements. But, if it were up to some people, ''nothing'' would be tested because everything potentially has a remote chance of a problem. How about use the tools we have, seek to assess and improve those tools (a rubber hammer still works as a hammer, and can likely do a better job than no hammer at all when we ''really'' need to drive some nails in). Science doesn't stand still, fortunately.
 
::::: '''Could we find a protein that is part of the virus and could work as an antigen but that mutates less readily?'''
 
::::: Possibly. Of course it may ideally have to be a surface protein ''like'' the above protein in order to have the immune system learn enough to vaguely recognise Covid ''before'' it gets into cells, replicates (damages/kills the cells, is multiplied) and probably exposes the body to even more S-proteins from the whole process of viral shell dissassembly (from its own shedding process or following the T-cell battles that result) that are at least as bad for the body as any vaccine-invoked fragments.
 
::::: ...it's a balance, of course. But not one easily weighted towards rejecting the vaccines (which come in many forms, perhaps you can accept one that you ''don't'' have an overly irrational hatred of?) while there remains the risk of catching (and passing on) a version of the real virus from someone who doesn't even wear a white coat, wield an obvious syringe and happily present you with the latest risk/ingredient paperwork for what you're going to involuntarily get.
 
::::: Keep an open mind about the latest medical advice, but don't have it so open that you get total garbage flydumped into your head. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.85.62|172.70.85.62]] 00:44, 2 August 2023 (UTC)
 
:::::: The question of whether or not the modified S protein used in some vaccines is more pathogenic than COVID really should take into account multiple exposures to the antigen. This also opens the can of worms that while related to vaccines, affects virtually everyone on earth, and that is the pathogenicity of the spike protein. This is something that we should definitely focus on, especially to help those with "long covid" but also the people who get acute covid and those who have adverse reactions to the inoculations.
 
:::::: Finally my friend, I hope you can understand, I don't have hatred of anything, and at this moment, I think it's clear that there are very rational concerns related to the genetic vaccines. You can and people often do catch covid even after vaccinating (and the protection wanes significantly after some months) so this is not an 'altruistic' move, but rather one of personal choice and responsibility. Cheers. You make your own choices, and you live with them, so try to find and process information on your own, because you will be responsible on your own. Love.  [[User:Scienceizkool|Scienceizkool]] ([[User talk:Scienceizkool|talk]]) 06:13, 4 August 2023 (UTC)
 
:::::: "...multiple exposures to the antigen..."... Inevitable if people passively allow/encourage the virus to become endemic. Cats/bags and horses/stable-doors, maybe, but needn't be that way. And can be made less significant if people are, or become, sensible about it. Not sure how much hope there is for that, reading the above exchanges. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.86.160|172.70.86.160]] 09:09, 4 August 2023 (UTC)
 
 
I find it really insulting to be lumped in with antivaxxers. I'm not an antivaxxer. I love vaccines. The covid jab is not a vaccine, it's a scam. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.0.142|172.69.0.142]] 00:17, 3 August 2023 (UTC)
 
:I'm reticent to ask you to elucidate, as I predict that you're trapped down one or other particular pernicious and unfounded rabbit-hole from which there is no easy rescue. But you clearly have a <s>good...</s> ...''definite'' idea of what this scam is, yet are leaving us hanging there as to exactly what it is that you mean. (In leiu of any reasonable clarification, don't be surprised if we ignore you. This response may just be a badly thought-out courtesy reply to let you know about that.) [[Special:Contributions/172.70.86.195|172.70.86.195]] 07:08, 3 August 2023 (UTC)
 
:Then you need a reality check, and to grow a thicker skin, because this is the path YOU have chosen. Nobody made you mistake it for a scam, nobody made you leave yourself vulnerable and betray mankind (presuming you haven't been vaccinated). Being against only one vaccine doesn't stop you from being an anti-vaxxer, sorry. You're still against science just because you don't understand it. Don't like being lumped in under that term, stop being against it, simple. I mean, I could see not wanting to lump in the Covid vaccine under the label of "vaccines", seeing as it's the most advanced, innovative, impressive vaccine we've ever seen, that it's a bit minimizing to just call it a vaccine, but that's obviously not a reason to be AGAINST it. Just because you don't understand it doesn't make it a scam. Do you realize they've never come up with a vaccine for colds or flus (not a true one, anyway), or why? Do you realize the Covid vaccine is a humongous step towards that? It's because colds, flus, and Covid (as a variant of them) are thousands of viruses, not one like the other things we have vaccines for. The usual flu vaccine is rather a vaccine against the specific strains they predict will be prevalent that season. It would be like if they came out with a Omicron Vaccine - stop THAT variant and no other. Since viruses mutate (I think particularly Covid), that would quickly become useless. THIS vaccine protects against the whole Covid family, it's a much more general protection, with the drawback that it can't fully STOP it, it makes the virus less effective and less likely to pass on. [[User:NiceGuy1|NiceGuy1]] ([[User talk:NiceGuy1|talk]]) 05:45, 12 August 2023 (UTC)
 
:: care to share any study on how effective your panacea is? ANY will do. Bow down before the one you serve...  [[User:Scienceizkool|Scienceizkool]] ([[User talk:Scienceizkool|talk]]) 15:37, 15 August 2023 (UTC)
 
[https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=2806:_Anti-Vaxxers&curid=26549&diff=320191&oldid=319966 "Replacing offensive language"] ...can only speak for myself, but I found it funny. And you can't take seriously anything put in the Incomplete tags, I just took it as knowing sarcasm. If anything, that people strongly disagree is true, but I don't care for them and that type of person has nothing useful to add here anyway. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.90.172|172.70.90.172]] 10:02, 4 August 2023 (UTC)
 
: Oh jeez, bugs me when people are THAT hypersensitive, LOL! I feel it just contributes to nobody in the current generation having thick skin anymore (particularly as, like you say, these comments are never taken seriously). If I wasn't sure it's gone by now I'd have to go change it back, :) [[User:NiceGuy1|NiceGuy1]] ([[User talk:NiceGuy1|talk]]) 05:45, 12 August 2023 (UTC)
 
 
 
==Alternative Explanation: Misinformation==
 
'''The current "''Explanation''"''' interprets the comic literally and at face value when the comic is deliberately ''equivocal''. This fails to take into consideration either Randall's inclination towards irony or his concern for wider social issues. Here is what I consider to be a more accurate interpretation, together with a detailed analysis, that addresses both of these issues. I look forward to your comments.<br/>
 
The stylistic techniques used in this comic are sufficiently advanced that I decided they warranted a separate explanation. This explanation I have omitted for now but would be happy to share if there is sufficient interest.
 
:<span style="color:blue">'''[SUMMARY]'''</span>
 
:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;This comic can be interpreted as Randall appealing to society to take a little more time to rationally consider all information instead of repeatedly being emotionally manipulated by it. The appeal is in response to both misinformation and disinformation that came to light as a result of the many pandemic-related issues.
 
:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;The dialogue of the comic emotionally goads the reader into hastily casting judgement on a narrative they think they're seeing so setting the reader up to be their own demonstration of how easy it is be a victim of either misinformation or disinformation. Given that the comic is an appeal to society to consider information more rationally, the comic can be considered to be deliberately ironic.
 
:<span style="color:blue">'''[ANALYSIS]'''</span>
 
:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;The pejorative "Anti-vaxxer" refers to either any individual questioning the COVID-19 vaccination or any individual who has refused a COVID-19 vaccination. However, this pejorative obscures two arguments that such individuals typically make: (1) that [https://www.transparency.org/en/press/covid-19-vaccines-lack-of-transparency-trials-secretive-contracts-science-by-press-release-risk-success-of-global-response everbody should be entitled to comprehensive and accurate information regarding the content and efficacy of any vaccine being developed], and (2) based on that information, everyone should have the [https://www.nvic.org/news-events/other-events/vaccine-freedom-of-choice freedom to choose whether to have a vaccination or not].
 
:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Box #1's dialogue, "''I TRY TO MEET PEOPLE WHERE THEY ARE, BUT I HAVE SUCH A HARD TIME WITH ANTI-VAXXERS.''", deliberately suggests that Randall has tried, ''unsuccessfully'', to reconcile his own principles with those of the "Anti-vaxxer"s. However, even though both the comic's ''title text'' and [[2455|previous XKCD comics]] may be interpreted as Randall [[2397|advocating for vaccination]], there is no emperical evidence to support that Randall has explicitly disagreed with either of the "Anti-vaxxer"s' aforementioned arguments. Box #1 instead expresses an ideological dilemma. On the one hand, Randall believes everybody should be vaccinated for COVID-19. On the other hand, he believes in the [[706|notion of personal freedom]]. He realises, however, that any attempt to legislatively enforce the former encroaches on the latter. Box #2 refers to an unknown number of "''DILEMMAS''" the pandemic brought with it and this can be considered to be one such dilemma.
 
:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Society observed during the pandemic that fake or inaccurate information was able to manipulate how society perceived important issues. This resulted in two words being introduced into the common vernacular: "''misinformation''" and "''disinformation''". Randall was already aware that both of these phenomena existed well before the pandemic through his [[978|long-standing interest in the perpetual cycle of both fake and inaccurate information in society]]. However, the wide range of pandemic-related issues caused the uncovering of both misinformation and disinformation on a scale that even Randall had previously been unaware. He observed "''AMBIGUOUS DATA''" (from corporations and governments), "''WEIRD TRADEOFFS''" (both [https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/hgf/difficult-trade-offs-in-response-to-covid-19.pdf internally within governments] and [https://www.propublica.org/article/the-secret-absurd-world-of-coronavirus-mask-traders-and-middlemen-trying-to-get-rich-off-government-money between governments and corporations]), and "''DISAGREEMENTS''" ([https://jme.bmj.com/content/49/1/9 within both government and wider society with regard to pandemic-related policy]), and increased "''UNCERTAINTY''" overall.
 
:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;The wide range of pandemic-related issues also caused Randall to observe that a major crisis can be effective at [[2305|coalescing public opinion]] which can force decisive action on key social issues. Compared to the complex machinations of government where political ambitions often obstruct decisive action, Randall realised that a crisis is simplicity itself for getting action when it is required, and this is reflected in "...ALSO ''TURNED OUT TO BE ONE OF THE EASIEST AND SIMPLEST.''". It is from this standpoint that Randall sees the '''perpetual lack of decisive action''' on a range of social issues, from stamping out disinformation to deciding global vaccination policy, as society's "''SUFFERING''" and he sees the '''pandemic itself''' as an "''INTERVENTION''" that reduced that suffering as the crisis either forced awareness of the issues or forced action with respect to them.
 
:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;This, however, presents Randall with a new dilemma which can also be considered to be one of the pandemic-related "''DILEMMAS''" referred to in box #2. He in no way wishes the social upheaval and physical suffering caused by major crises, and yet he observes that, due to decisive action on social issues that may be brought about, there are rare occasions where major crises result in a net ''overall improvement'' in the way society functions. It is the ''rarity'' of these "beneficial crises", of which Randall considers the COVID-19 pandemic to be one, that is expressed by the phrase "''THAT NEVER HAPPENS''". However, the fact that the pandemic did happen, and the exact timing of it, appears to have forced positive action on one or more (possibly unstated) issues important to Randall himself, and it is from this standpoint that the pandemic, to him at least, "''JUST FEELS LIKE A MIRACLE''".
 
:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Overall, though, Randall is frustrated at this new dilemma and continues "''I HATE THAT PEOPLE ARE WORKING SO HARD TO MAKE IT COMPLICATED WHEN IT'S ONE OF THE FEW THINGS IN THIS WORLD THAT ISN'T''". He appears to be angry that [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_misinformation_by_governments government misinformation] and [https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/did-pharma-promote-vaccine-disinformation corporate disinformation] are complicating issues for society as a whole so hindering people from making informed choices regarding those issues and effecting decisive action. Randall believes that if society took a little more time to rationally consider information placed before it then it may be able to avoid emotional manipulation and see past the misinformation, enabling decisive action to be taken sooner rather than having to wait an indeterminate period for the next major crisis to come along and force action to be taken.
 
:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Finally, the comic's ''title text'', though sarcastic, is a challenge to the "Anti-vaxxer"s. Randall claims that, even given the culture of misinformation uncovered during the pandemic, the [[2400|scientific data regarding vaccine efficacy]] is reliable enough to withstand close scrutiny. He is challenging the "Anti-vaxxer"s to excerise their Freedom to Choose based on this data, positing that their initial argument for being entitled to accurate information regarding vaccines has been addressed.
 
----
 
[[Special:Contributions/172.71.98.227|172.71.98.227]] 05:32, 19 August 2023 (UTC)
 
 
Cueball says 'people are working so hard to make it complicated when it's one of the few things in this world that isn't'. Given the length and fractiousness of this comments section, I think they may have a point. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.43.138|172.69.43.138]] 15:32, 6 November 2023 (UTC)
 
 
Excess deaths are up, cancers are up, dementia is up, strokes are up. There must be a simple explanation for this all... if only there were one.
 
Oh well. Guess science can't explain everything after all. I used to get mad at fanatics, but now I just feel sad, because the denial is rock solid.
 
[[User:Scienceizkool|Scienceizkool]] ([[User talk:Scienceizkool|talk]]) 03:32, 9 April 2024 (UTC)
 
:Your point is ambiguous. Despite your username, hard to tell if you're using sarcasm or not.  Poe's law seems to apply. But, to extend/counter your point (whichever), we can say:
 
:*Excess deaths are a comparison of the expected trend, from thenimmediate lead-up of historic data, against what is then seen. Higher excess deaths could mean reversion to the mean after doing well on death-prevention before. Give or take whether you account for all those that previously didn't die who are now older and thus closer to dying from ''something else'', which a good Excess Deaths estimation might need to account for (slice it up be age demographics, obviously a 20yo who fortunately didn't die at 18 isn't likely to die of old age by 22).
 
:*Dementia and strokes are the kinds of thing you die of when you "haven't died of anything else", so if you're saving people from dying of cholera, car-crashes, rampaging cattle stampedes or suicide (through healthcare, seatbelts, farm safety and treating depression) then people will get old and succumb to more geriatric condictions.
 
:...so, yes, science can explain things. The fine detail can be argued about, but you can always check how much good data you have in order to give confidence to the minutiae, but population-wide statistics across stretches of time tend to be fairly reliable as far as such conclusions. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.162.20|172.70.162.20]] 10:53, 9 April 2024 (UTC)
 
:Get boosted [[User:Scienceizkool|Scienceizkool]] ([[User talk:Scienceizkool|talk]]) 20:05, 12 April 2024 (UTC)
 

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