Editing 1122: Electoral Precedent
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==Explanation== | ==Explanation== | ||
+ | {{incomplete|Created by a TIME TRAVELER. Please explain and flesh out each broken precedent. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}} | ||
During election season in U.S. presidential elections — and especially in election night coverage — it is common for the media to make comments like the ones set out in the first panel of this comic. [[Randall Munroe|Randall]] is demonstrating the problem with making such statements, many of which simply come down to coincidence. | During election season in U.S. presidential elections — and especially in election night coverage — it is common for the media to make comments like the ones set out in the first panel of this comic. [[Randall Munroe|Randall]] is demonstrating the problem with making such statements, many of which simply come down to coincidence. | ||
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===Table of Broken Precedents=== | ===Table of Broken Precedents=== | ||
+ | |||
+ | ''<font color="red">Please have someone else validate your row, as to make sure the table is accurate</font>'' | ||
{| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable" | {| border =1 width=100% cellpadding=5 class="wikitable" | ||
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| 1788 | | 1788 | ||
| No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was. | | No one has been elected president before. ...But Washington was. | ||
− | | Discounting the Articles of Confederation and its {{w|President of the Continental Congress|president}}, Washington is the first president of the | + | | Discounting the Articles of Confederation and its {{w|President of the Continental Congress|president}}, Washington is the first president of the US. |
| True | | True | ||
|- | |- | ||
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| 1800 | | 1800 | ||
| No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did. | | No challenger has beaten an incumbent. ...But Jefferson did. | ||
− | | Adams is the first president not to have a second term, due to signing the unpopular {{w|Alien and Sedition | + | | Adams is the first president not to have a second term, due to signing the unpopular {{w|Alien and Sedition acts}}. He was defeated by the challenger, Jefferson. |
| True | | True | ||
|- | |- | ||
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| 1812 | | 1812 | ||
| No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did. | | No one can win without New York. ...But Madison did. | ||
− | | While it is true New York voted against Madison but he still won, New York did not vote for Washington due to an | + | | While it is true New York voted against Madison but he still won, New York did not vote for Washington due to an [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1788%E2%80%9389_United_States_presidential_election#New_York's_lack_of_Electors internal dispute]. |
| False | | False | ||
|- | |- | ||
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|- | |- | ||
| 1820 | | 1820 | ||
− | | No one who wears pants instead of | + | | No one who wears pants instead of [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culottes breeches] can be reelected. ...But Monroe was. |
| The first 5 presidents, including Monroe, all wore breeches. | | The first 5 presidents, including Monroe, all wore breeches. | ||
− | | | + | | false |
|- | |- | ||
| 1824 | | 1824 | ||
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|1844 | |1844 | ||
| No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did. | | No one who's lost his home state has won. ...But Polk did. | ||
− | | | + | | Assuming "home state" refers to the state of residence, Polk is the first, losing Tennessee to Clay but took 15 of the 26 states including New York. However, if you count it as state of birth, Jackson and Harrison already did. |
− | | | + | | True |
|- | |- | ||
|1848 | |1848 | ||
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|No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was. | |No one with a beard has been reelected. ...But Lincoln was. | ||
|Lincoln was the first U.S. president to have a beard. | |Lincoln was the first U.S. president to have a beard. | ||
− | | | + | |true |
|- | |- | ||
|1868 | |1868 | ||
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|No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was. | |No one with a beard has been reelected in peacetime. ...Until Grant was. | ||
|Grant was the second U.S. president (behind Lincoln) to be reelected with a beard, but only Grant was reelected during peacetime. | |Grant was the second U.S. president (behind Lincoln) to be reelected with a beard, but only Grant was reelected during peacetime. | ||
− | | | + | |true |
|- | |- | ||
|1876 | |1876 | ||
|No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did. | |No one can win a majority of the popular vote and still lose. ...Tilden did. | ||
|Samuel Tilden won a majority of the popular vote, with 51%, but lost in the electoral college in a {{w|1876 United States presidential election|contested election}}, resolved by the {{w|Compromise of 1877}}. (During the election of 1824, Jackson won the popular vote but did not win more than half of it, a majority) | |Samuel Tilden won a majority of the popular vote, with 51%, but lost in the electoral college in a {{w|1876 United States presidential election|contested election}}, resolved by the {{w|Compromise of 1877}}. (During the election of 1824, Jackson won the popular vote but did not win more than half of it, a majority) | ||
− | |True | + | | True |
|- | |- | ||
|1880 | |1880 | ||
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|Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine. | |Candidates named "James" can't lose. ...Until James Blaine. | ||
|James Blaine was the first major candidate with the first name "James" to lose an election, losing to Grover Cleveland. | |James Blaine was the first major candidate with the first name "James" to lose an election, losing to Grover Cleveland. | ||
− | | | + | |true |
|- | |- | ||
|1888 | |1888 | ||
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|No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland. | |No former president has been elected. ...Until Cleveland. | ||
|Cleveland was the first (and thus far only) president to serve 2 non-consecutive terms, winning the presidential election in 1884, losing in 1888, and winning in 1892. | |Cleveland was the first (and thus far only) president to serve 2 non-consecutive terms, winning the presidential election in 1884, losing in 1888, and winning in 1892. | ||
− | | | + | |true |
|- | |- | ||
|1896 | |1896 | ||
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|No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was. | |No Republican shorter than 5'8" has been reelected. ...Until McKinley was. | ||
|At the time, McKinley was only the 3rd Republican who was reelected (behind Lincoln and Grant). And he was the shortest of them all, at 5'7" tall. | |At the time, McKinley was only the 3rd Republican who was reelected (behind Lincoln and Grant). And he was the shortest of them all, at 5'7" tall. | ||
− | | | + | |true |
|- | |- | ||
|1904 | |1904 | ||
|No one under 45 has been elected. ...Roosevelt was. | |No one under 45 has been elected. ...Roosevelt was. | ||
− | |At the start of his presidency, Theodore Roosevelt was the youngest president, taking office at the age of 42 when McKinley died in 1901. However, he was not elected President until 1904, by which time he was no longer under 45 | + | |At the start of his presidency, Theodore Roosevelt was the youngest president, taking office at the age of 42 when McKinley died in 1901. However, he was not elected President until 1904, by which time he was no longer under 45. |
|False | |False | ||
|- | |- | ||
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|After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither. | |After Lincoln beat the Democrats while sporting a beard with no mustache, the only Democrats who can win have a mustache with no beard. ...Wilson had neither. | ||
|From Lincoln's presidency to Wilson's, only one Democrat won- Grover Cleveland, who had a mustache but no beard. | |From Lincoln's presidency to Wilson's, only one Democrat won- Grover Cleveland, who had a mustache but no beard. | ||
− | | | + | |true |
|- | |- | ||
|1916 | |1916 | ||
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|No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding. | |No incumbent senator has won. ...Until Harding. | ||
|Harding was the first sitting Senator to become President - he resigned his position as Senator to become President. | |Harding was the first sitting Senator to become President - he resigned his position as Senator to become President. | ||
− | | | + | |true |
|- | |- | ||
|1924 | |1924 | ||
|No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge. | |No one with two Cs in their name has become president. ...Until Calvin Coolidge. | ||
− | |'''C'''alvin '''C'''oolidge was the first with "two C's in his name". Presidents with "one C" in their names prior to Coolidge were John Quin'''c'''y Adams, Andrew Ja'''c'''kson, Za'''c'''hary Taylor, Franklin Pier'''c'''e, James Bu'''c'''hanan, Abraham Lin'''c'''oln, '''C'''hester A. Arthur, Grover '''C'''leveland and William M'''c''' | + | |'''C'''alvin '''C'''oolidge was the first with "two C's in his name". Presidents with "one C" in their names prior to Coolidge were John Quin'''c'''y Adams, Andrew Ja'''c'''kson, Za'''c'''hary Taylor, Franklin Pier'''c'''e, James Bu'''c'''hanan, Abraham Lin'''c'''oln, '''C'''hester A. Arthur, Grover '''C'''leveland and William M'''c'''kinley. |
− | | | + | |true |
|- | |- | ||
|1928 | |1928 | ||
|No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith. | |No one who got ten million votes has lost. ...Until Al Smith. | ||
|Smith was the first candidate to get more than 10 million votes and lose. He received over 15 million votes, but lost to Herbert Hoover, who received 21.4 million votes, and won the electoral college, 444-87. | |Smith was the first candidate to get more than 10 million votes and lose. He received over 15 million votes, but lost to Herbert Hoover, who received 21.4 million votes, and won the electoral college, 444-87. | ||
− | | | + | |true |
|- | |- | ||
|1932 | |1932 | ||
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|No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was. | |No President's been reelected with double-digit unemployment. ...Until FDR was. | ||
|FDR was reelected during the Great Depression when unemployment peaked at 22-25%. | |FDR was reelected during the Great Depression when unemployment peaked at 22-25%. | ||
− | | | + | |true |
|- | |- | ||
|1940 | |1940 | ||
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|1952 | |1952 | ||
|No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did. | |No Republican has won without winning the House or Senate. ...Eisenhower did. | ||
− | | | + | | |
− | | | + | | |
|- | |- | ||
|1956 | |1956 | ||
|No one can beat the same nominee a second time in a leap year rematch. ...Until Eisenhower. | |No one can beat the same nominee a second time in a leap year rematch. ...Until Eisenhower. | ||
|The phrase "leap year" excludes the elections of 1800 and 1900, which were not leap years in the U.S. or most other countries (although they were leap years in Russia, which was still using the Julian calendar). | |The phrase "leap year" excludes the elections of 1800 and 1900, which were not leap years in the U.S. or most other countries (although they were leap years in Russia, which was still using the Julian calendar). | ||
− | | | + | |true |
|- | |- | ||
|1960 | |1960 | ||
|Catholics can't win. ...Kennedy beat Nixon. | |Catholics can't win. ...Kennedy beat Nixon. | ||
|The only other Catholic to be nominated until 1960 was Democrat Alfred E. Smith in 1928. | |The only other Catholic to be nominated until 1960 was Democrat Alfred E. Smith in 1928. | ||
− | | | + | |true |
|- | |- | ||
|1964 | |1964 | ||
|Every Republican who's taken Louisiana has won. ...Until Goldwater. | |Every Republican who's taken Louisiana has won. ...Until Goldwater. | ||
− | | | + | | |
− | | | + | | |
|- | |- | ||
|1968 | |1968 | ||
|No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon. | |No Republican vice president has risen to the Presidency through an election. ...Until Nixon. | ||
|Theodore Roosevelt, the winner of the 1904 election, was a Republican former Vice President, but he had already risen to the Presidency in 1901 when McKinley died in office. | |Theodore Roosevelt, the winner of the 1904 election, was a Republican former Vice President, but he had already risen to the Presidency in 1901 when McKinley died in office. | ||
− | | | + | |true |
|- | |- | ||
|1972 | |1972 | ||
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|1976 | |1976 | ||
|No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did. | |No one who lost New Mexico has won. ...But Carter did. | ||
− | | | + | | |
− | | | + | | |
|- | |- | ||
|1980 | |1980 | ||
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|1984 | |1984 | ||
|No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was. | |No left-handed president has been reelected. ...Until Reagan was. | ||
− | |Reagan is one of 8 left-handed presidents (as of | + | |Reagan is one of 8 left-handed presidents (as of 2020). None of the 4 left-handed presidents prior to Reagan was reelected (James Garfield was assassinated in his first year in office and Herbert Hoover, Harry Truman, and Gerald Ford only served one full term each). |
− | | | + | |true |
|- | |- | ||
|1988 | |1988 | ||
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|1992 | |1992 | ||
|No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did. | |No Democrat has won without a majority of the Catholic vote. ...Until Clinton did. | ||
− | | | + | | |
− | | | + | | |
|- | |- | ||
|1996 | |1996 | ||
|No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob. | |No Dem. incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble. ...Until Bill beat Bob. | ||
− | | | + | | |
| | | | ||
|- | |- | ||
|2000 | |2000 | ||
|No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did. | |No Republican has won without Vermont. ...Until Bush did. | ||
− | | | + | | |
− | | | + | | |
|- | |- | ||
|2004 | |2004 | ||
|No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did. | |No Republican without combat experience has beaten someone two inches taller. ...Until Bush did. | ||
− | | | + | | |
− | | | + | | |
|- | |- | ||
|2008 | |2008 | ||
|No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did. | |No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did. | ||
− | | | + | | |
− | | | + | | |
|- | |- | ||
|2012? | |2012? | ||
|Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. | |Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. | ||
|Barack Obama is 6' 1" (185 cm), and Mitt Romney is 6' 2" (188 cm). When Obama won, it broke the streak. | |Barack Obama is 6' 1" (185 cm), and Mitt Romney is 6' 2" (188 cm). When Obama won, it broke the streak. | ||
− | |...Until Obama | + | |...Until Obama. |
|- | |- | ||
|2012? | |2012? | ||
|No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. | |No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. | ||
|This apparently refers only to major party nominees, as many third party and other nominees with a first name containing "K" have lost, such as {{w|Frank T. Johns}} of the Socialist Labor Party of America. Major party nominees with a "K" have won, such as Democrats Franklin Pierce, Franklin Roosevelt, and Barack Obama. If Romney had won, it would have broken the streak with respect to major party nominees, although not the streak as stated, which had already been broken with respect to all nominees. | |This apparently refers only to major party nominees, as many third party and other nominees with a first name containing "K" have lost, such as {{w|Frank T. Johns}} of the Socialist Labor Party of America. Major party nominees with a "K" have won, such as Democrats Franklin Pierce, Franklin Roosevelt, and Barack Obama. If Romney had won, it would have broken the streak with respect to major party nominees, although not the streak as stated, which had already been broken with respect to all nominees. | ||
− | | | + | |true |
|- | |- | ||
|Title text | |Title text | ||
|No white guy who's been mentioned on Twitter has gone on to win. | |No white guy who's been mentioned on Twitter has gone on to win. | ||
|Twitter was founded in 2006; Barack Obama was the first president elected since its founding, and although he had been mentioned on Twitter prior to his election, he is not a white male and so did not break the streak. The streak was broken in 2016 when Donald Trump was elected. | |Twitter was founded in 2006; Barack Obama was the first president elected since its founding, and although he had been mentioned on Twitter prior to his election, he is not a white male and so did not break the streak. The streak was broken in 2016 when Donald Trump was elected. | ||
− | |...Until Trump | + | |...Until Trump. |
|} | |} | ||
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:2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did. | :2008... No Democrat can win without Missouri. ...Until Obama did. | ||
:[This year has two panels.] 2012... [Panel one] Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. [Panel two] No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. [Text under panels] Which streak will break? | :[This year has two panels.] 2012... [Panel one] Democratic incumbents never beat taller challengers. [Panel two] No nominee whose first name contains a "K" has lost. [Text under panels] Which streak will break? | ||
− | |||
− | |||
==Trivia/Errors== | ==Trivia/Errors== | ||
* There was an error in the original 1800 panel of the comic, as Jefferson (not Adams) was the first challenger to beat an incumbent, when Jefferson beat then-president Adams in 1800. This was later corrected. | * There was an error in the original 1800 panel of the comic, as Jefferson (not Adams) was the first challenger to beat an incumbent, when Jefferson beat then-president Adams in 1800. This was later corrected. | ||
− | * The first president | + | * The first president with a wig was technically Washington, who did not wear a wig, but in fact powdered his hair white. |
* Although Theodore Roosevelt became the first president under age 45 and was later elected president, he was not elected before the age of 45. | * Although Theodore Roosevelt became the first president under age 45 and was later elected president, he was not elected before the age of 45. |