Editing 1236: Seashell
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==Explanation== | ==Explanation== | ||
− | This method of relating the probabilities of two events is known as {{w|Bayes' theorem|Bayes' Theorem}}. | + | This method of relating the probabilities of two events is known as {{w|Bayes' theorem|Bayes' Theorem}}. |
− | If you put a | + | If you put a seashell up to your ear, you can hear {{w|Seashell resonance|a sound similar to the ocean}} apparently inside the shell. But the idea that this sound is actually the sound of the sea is just a popular myth: hold only your hands close to your ears and you will hear the same sound. The comic, through an application of Bayes' Theorem, points out that most of the time when you pick up a seashell, you are in fact at the beach next to the real ocean, so hearing the ocean at that location is not all that impressive, but it's just real. |
The equation should, however, be read as follows: (The probability that I'm near the ocean, given that I picked up a seashell) is equal to (The probability that I picked up a seashell, given that I'm near the ocean) multiplied by (The probability that I'm near the ocean) divided by (The probability that I picked up a seashell). | The equation should, however, be read as follows: (The probability that I'm near the ocean, given that I picked up a seashell) is equal to (The probability that I picked up a seashell, given that I'm near the ocean) multiplied by (The probability that I'm near the ocean) divided by (The probability that I picked up a seashell). | ||
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==Transcript== | ==Transcript== | ||
− | : | + | :At the top of the panel is an equation showing Bayes' Theorem for the probability that a person is near the ocean given that they just picked up a seashell. |
− | + | :The probability that I'm near the ocean given I picked up a seashell equals the probability I picked up a seashell given I'm near the ocean times the probability I'm near the ocean all divided by the probability I picked up a seashell. | |
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:[Cueball holds a seashell and stands to the left of the panel, to the right, a few birds are flying around and the sound of a wave crashing against the shore is depicted.] | :[Cueball holds a seashell and stands to the left of the panel, to the right, a few birds are flying around and the sound of a wave crashing against the shore is depicted.] |