Editing 1252: Increased Risk
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| title = Increased Risk | | title = Increased Risk | ||
| image = increased_risk.png | | image = increased_risk.png | ||
− | | titletext = You may point out that strictly speaking, you can use that statement to prove that all risks are | + | | titletext = You may point out that strictly speaking, you can use that statement to prove that all risks are tiny--to which I reply HOLY SHIT WATCH OUT FOR THAT DOG! |
}} | }} | ||
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==Explanation== | ==Explanation== | ||
− | The panel | + | {{incomplete}} |
− | + | The panel satirises the common misunderstanding of the concept of percentage. Quoting a percentage figure, without mentioning the base which this ratio acts on is meaningless (outside of arithmetic for arithmetic's sake). Most everyday communication however, succumbs to such incompleteness. In the aftermath of this ambiguity, people tend to conflate relative and absolute changes. | |
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− | + | If the probability of a shark attack at the North beach is one per million, then the probability of shark attack at the South beach is still not more than 1.2 per million. The difference between these values is not enough to normally justify choosing one beach over the other, even though a "20% greater" chance sounds significant when stated out of this larger context. | |
− | + | [[Cueball]] parodies the concern by noting that by going to a beach three times instead of two, their chances of attack by dogs with handguns in their mouths (a ludicrous and unrealistic scenario) increases by 50%. If the chance of the dog attack is one per billion on each visit to the beach, then the chance of attack increases over multiple visits. (It's still one in a billion for any specific visit.) This does not change the overall improbability of there ever being a dog swimming with a gun in its mouth. | |
− | + | [[Beret Guy]] misunderstands Cueball's probability, exhibiting the {{w|Gambler's fallacy}} by believing that, since they haven't been attacked in their first two trips, the chance of attack by dogs with handguns is higher on their third outing. | |
− | + | This is a common misunderstanding on statistics: While the overall probability of an attack in three trips would be higher, it doesn't change the fact that in each individual trip, the probability is still the same; if they managed to avoid being attacked in their first two trips, these trips no longer factor into the probability equation of the third trip. | |
− | + | This also can be illustrated by coin flips: If one flips a coin 10 times in a row, no matter what the result of each previous flip is (even if it were nine heads in a row), the odds of getting heads on the next coin flip remains 50%. In other words, past experience does not impact subsequent flips. | |
− | + | The title text discusses the argument that, if a tiny risk increased by 50% is still tiny, like this formulation of the {{w|paradox of the heap}}. | |
==Transcript== | ==Transcript== | ||
− | :[ | + | :[Three figures are standing around. Two have beach towels. Megan is looking at her cell phone. One of them is Beret Guy.] |
:Ponytail: We should go to the north beach. Someone said the south beach has a 20% higher risk of shark attacks. | :Ponytail: We should go to the north beach. Someone said the south beach has a 20% higher risk of shark attacks. | ||
− | :Cueball: Yeah, but statistically, taking three beach trips instead of two increases our odds of getting shot by a swimming dog carrying a handgun in its mouth by '''''50%''''' | + | :Cueball: Yeah, but statistically, taking three beach trips instead of two increases our odds of getting shot by a swimming dog carrying a handgun in its mouth by '''''50%!''''' |
:Beret Guy: Oh no! This is our third trip! | :Beret Guy: Oh no! This is our third trip! | ||
− | + | :Reminder: A 50% increase in a tiny risk is ''still tiny''. | |
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− | :Reminder: A 50% increase in a tiny risk is | ||
{{comic discussion}} | {{comic discussion}} | ||
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[[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]] | [[Category:Comics featuring Ponytail]] | ||
[[Category:Comics featuring Beret Guy]] | [[Category:Comics featuring Beret Guy]] | ||
− | [[Category: | + | [[Category:Math]] |
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