Editing 1658: Estimating Time
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Estimation is difficult; many people seem to greatly underestimate the amount of time or other resources required. To illustrate how difficult this estimation is {{w|Douglas Hofstadter}} coined {{w|Hofstadter's law}} which is a non-scientific {{w|self-referential}} time-related adage, mentioned in the title text. It states: ''It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.'' | Estimation is difficult; many people seem to greatly underestimate the amount of time or other resources required. To illustrate how difficult this estimation is {{w|Douglas Hofstadter}} coined {{w|Hofstadter's law}} which is a non-scientific {{w|self-referential}} time-related adage, mentioned in the title text. It states: ''It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.'' | ||
| − | [[Ponytail]] is working at her computer and becomes frustrated as it seems her project will (again) take much longer than she has estimated. She is annoyed with herself for always failing to make a decent guess. [[Danish]] begins to give Ponytail advice on how to estimate the time, starting with the comforting words {{w| Phrases from The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy#Don.27t Panic | | + | [[Ponytail]] is working at her computer and becomes frustrated as it seems her project will (again) take much longer than she has estimated. She is annoyed with herself for always failing to make a decent guess. [[Danish]] begins to give Ponytail advice on how to estimate the time, starting with the comforting words {{w| Phrases from The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy#Don.27t Panic |Don’t panic}} and a common guideline of taking the initial estimate and doubling it. |
Danish then iterates the law once more and she tells Ponytail to double this again, and then add five minutes. Unless the project to begin with was estimated to somewhat less than an hour, those five minutes will do nothing but confuse Ponytail. But Danish does not stop here, and iterates Hofstadter's law once more. Ponytail still doesn’t get where this goes, saying a hesitant ''okay'' to that. | Danish then iterates the law once more and she tells Ponytail to double this again, and then add five minutes. Unless the project to begin with was estimated to somewhat less than an hour, those five minutes will do nothing but confuse Ponytail. But Danish does not stop here, and iterates Hofstadter's law once more. Ponytail still doesn’t get where this goes, saying a hesitant ''okay'' to that. | ||
| − | It turns out that Danish was not at all trying to help, but just mess with Ponytail, as she now tells her that the only thing she has accomplished by listening to her advice is wasting half a minute doubling imaginary numbers (not to be confused with i, the imaginary number), i.e. even her first estimate is just something she has imagined especially since she states herself how bad she is at those kind of estimates. Finally Danish completes her frustration of Ponytail by saying | + | It turns out that Danish was not at all trying to help, but just mess with Ponytail, as she now tells her that the only thing she has accomplished by listening to her advice is wasting half a minute doubling imaginary numbers (not to be confused with i, the imaginary number), i.e. even her first estimate is just something she has imagined especially since she states herself how bad she is at those kind of estimates. Finally Danish completes her frustration of Ponytail by saying ''Paaaniiic!'', negating the initial advice. |
The title text is an extra corollary to the law, that states that using the law to estimate anything about the time your project takes is not only wasted time you could have spent working there is a substantial risk that you will conclude that you will never finish, and thus panic instead of just get the job done now. | The title text is an extra corollary to the law, that states that using the law to estimate anything about the time your project takes is not only wasted time you could have spent working there is a substantial risk that you will conclude that you will never finish, and thus panic instead of just get the job done now. | ||
