Editing 1950: Chicken Pox and Name Statistics
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==Explanation== | ==Explanation== | ||
− | This | + | This was the first [[:Category:Fun fact]] comic in more than two years, only to be followed just three weeks later by another fun fact in [[1959: The Simpsons]]. It seems that [[Randall]] this month returned to his [[1960:_Code_Golf#Revitalizing_old_themes|old themes]]. |
In this comic statistics are used to point out some non-intuitive correlations. The first panel sketches out the prevalence of {{w|Chickenpox|chicken pox}} by age in the {{w|United States}}. <br /> | In this comic statistics are used to point out some non-intuitive correlations. The first panel sketches out the prevalence of {{w|Chickenpox|chicken pox}} by age in the {{w|United States}}. <br /> | ||
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The final panel points out that these trends, taken together, generate the interesting effect that you can, in some cases, estimate the odds of someone having had chicken pox, based solely on their first name. Having a name like "Brian" or "Sarah" raises the odds that you're over 30, which raises the odds that you had chicken pox. People named "Harper" or "Jaxon" are almost certainly young enough to have grown up with the vaccine in broad use. These time-based trends predict both the odds of a person having had the illness personally, and the odds that they grew up in a time when infections were common and generally expected. | The final panel points out that these trends, taken together, generate the interesting effect that you can, in some cases, estimate the odds of someone having had chicken pox, based solely on their first name. Having a name like "Brian" or "Sarah" raises the odds that you're over 30, which raises the odds that you had chicken pox. People named "Harper" or "Jaxon" are almost certainly young enough to have grown up with the vaccine in broad use. These time-based trends predict both the odds of a person having had the illness personally, and the odds that they grew up in a time when infections were common and generally expected. | ||
− | The cartoon demonstrates | + | The cartoon demonstrates a particular type of correlative-based fallacy, i.e. what can go wrong if one attempts to draw conclusions based on a random comparison of two variables. In this case, there's a real correlation between names and the incidence of a particular disease. A superficial reading could suggest that either certain names make people prone to the disease, or that the disease, in some way, impacts a person's name. The real cause of this correlation is simply that certain trends just happen to coincide, causing them to statistically correlate without either variable having a real causal affect on the other. |
The citations are real articles. The first citation ''DOI:10.15585/mmwr.mm6534a4'' is on the {{w|Centers for Disease Control and Prevention|Center for Disease Control}} (CDC) web site at [https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/65/wr/mm6534a4.htm] and the second citation ''DOI:10.1016/j.vaccine.2012.05.050'' is an article in Vaccine at [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X12007761?via%3Dihub]. Both articles describe the effects of the vaccine for varicella which is the virus that causes chicken pox and shingles (also known as herpes zoster). | The citations are real articles. The first citation ''DOI:10.15585/mmwr.mm6534a4'' is on the {{w|Centers for Disease Control and Prevention|Center for Disease Control}} (CDC) web site at [https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/65/wr/mm6534a4.htm] and the second citation ''DOI:10.1016/j.vaccine.2012.05.050'' is an article in Vaccine at [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X12007761?via%3Dihub]. Both articles describe the effects of the vaccine for varicella which is the virus that causes chicken pox and shingles (also known as herpes zoster). | ||
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==Transcript== | ==Transcript== | ||
− | :[The | + | {{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}} |
− | :[ | + | :[The comic is divided into three vertical frames, and a caption.] |
+ | |||
+ | :[Title of the first panel:] | ||
:Fraction of kids your age who got chicken pox | :Fraction of kids your age who got chicken pox | ||
:<span style="color:gray">(Very rough US estimates based on DOI:10.15585/mmwr.mm6534a4 and DOI:10.1016/j.vaccine.2012.05.050)</span> | :<span style="color:gray">(Very rough US estimates based on DOI:10.15585/mmwr.mm6534a4 and DOI:10.1016/j.vaccine.2012.05.050)</span> | ||
− | :100% | + | :[A graph is shown with the y-axis ranging from 0 to 100% and the x-axis labeled "Your age:" ranging from 5 to 35. The percentage is close to 0 for ages below 15 and close to 100 for ages above 30.] |
− | + | :[Arrow pointing at the graph:] | |
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:<span style="color:gray">Vaccine introduced in 1995</span> | :<span style="color:gray">Vaccine introduced in 1995</span> | ||
− | :[ | + | :[Title of the second panel:] |
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:Relative popularity of several names in your age group | :Relative popularity of several names in your age group | ||
:<span style="color:gray">(Source: ssa.gov)</span> | :<span style="color:gray">(Source: ssa.gov)</span> | ||
− | :Harper | + | :[A graph is shown with the x-axis labeled "Your age:" ranging from 5 to 35. The graph lists Harper, Sarah, Jaxon, Brian, Brooklyn and Logan. Sarah and Brian are more popular names for older age groups.] |
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− | :[ | + | :[Title of the third panel:] |
:Chicken pox incidence by name: | :Chicken pox incidence by name: | ||
:<span style="color:gray">(Very rough estimate)</span> | :<span style="color:gray">(Very rough estimate)</span> | ||
:: Brian: 75% | :: Brian: 75% | ||
− | :: Sarah: | + | :: Sarah: 50% |
:: Logan: 20% | :: Logan: 20% | ||
:: Brooklyn: 10% | :: Brooklyn: 10% | ||
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:[Caption below the panels:] | :[Caption below the panels:] | ||
:Fun Fact: People named "Sarah" and "Brian" think chicken pox is normal and common, and people named "Logan" and "Harper" do not. | :Fun Fact: People named "Sarah" and "Brian" think chicken pox is normal and common, and people named "Logan" and "Harper" do not. | ||
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{{comic discussion}} | {{comic discussion}} | ||
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[[Category:Fun fact]] | [[Category:Fun fact]] | ||
[[Category:Kids]] | [[Category:Kids]] |