# Editing 2059: Modified Bayes' Theorem

**Warning:** You are not logged in. Your IP address will be publicly visible if you make any edits. If you **log in** or **create an account**, your edits will be attributed to your username, along with other benefits.

The edit can be undone.
Please check the comparison below to verify that this is what you want to do, and then save the changes below to finish undoing the edit.

Latest revision | Your text | ||

Line 24: | Line 24: | ||

It is a {{w|Linear interpolation|linear-interpolated}} weighted average of the belief from before the calculation and the belief after applying the theorem correctly. This goes smoothly from not believing the calculation at all up to be fully convinced to it. | It is a {{w|Linear interpolation|linear-interpolated}} weighted average of the belief from before the calculation and the belief after applying the theorem correctly. This goes smoothly from not believing the calculation at all up to be fully convinced to it. | ||

β | |||

β | |||

The title text suggests that an additional term should be added for the probability that the Modified Bayes Theorem is correct. But that's ''this'' equation, so it would make the formula self-referential, unless we call the result the Modified Modified Bayes Theorem. It could also result in an infinite regress -- needing another term for the probability that the version with the probability added is correct, and another term for that version, and so on. If the modifications have a limit, then a Modified<sup>ω</sup> Bayes Theorem would be the result, but then another term for whether it's correct is needed, leading to the Modified<sup>ω+1</sup> Bayes Theorem, and so on through every {{w|ordinal number}}. | The title text suggests that an additional term should be added for the probability that the Modified Bayes Theorem is correct. But that's ''this'' equation, so it would make the formula self-referential, unless we call the result the Modified Modified Bayes Theorem. It could also result in an infinite regress -- needing another term for the probability that the version with the probability added is correct, and another term for that version, and so on. If the modifications have a limit, then a Modified<sup>ω</sup> Bayes Theorem would be the result, but then another term for whether it's correct is needed, leading to the Modified<sup>ω+1</sup> Bayes Theorem, and so on through every {{w|ordinal number}}. |