Editing 2169: Predictive Models
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==Explanation== | ==Explanation== | ||
− | {{ | + | {{incomplete|Created by a PREDICTIVE MODEL THAT WILL BE FIRST AGAINST THE WALL WHEN THE REVOLUTION COMES. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}} |
− | + | {{w|Predictive text}} is a feature on many systems where as you type the system automatically suggests likely words or phrases to follow what you have written to that point. For instance, if you type "I'm heading" the system may suggest "home" or "back" as likely words to follow. Predictive systems usually use prior input to generate their predictions, so if you frequently type "Totally amazing!" the system will suggest "amazing!" every time you type "totally" even if you actually want to type "totally true" sometimes. | |
− | + | In the comic, Cueball is using predictive text to uncover a plot against him, or his organization/government. By typing in an obscure phrase related to revolution and a meeting, he gets the predictive text algorithm to display where and when the next, supposedly secret, meeting will be held. This works because it is unlikely that anyone else other than revolutionaries would be typing this phrase, thus the only data the algorithm has to predict from is the actual message from the revolutionaries on their next meeting. The caption of the comic is pointing out that systems which use prior input for predictive purposes in this way can end up leaking information that might otherwise be considered private. | |
− | + | As humanity adapts to a digital world, people are finding that their digital communications provide the illusion of confidentiality, with damaging results when the information leaks out. Real-life examples include a [https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-36391957 2016 British trainee doctor strike], where a technically-secure whatsapp group leaked information to the press. | |
− | + | The title text shows the revolutionaries using the same technique. By typing in "We will arrest the revolution members" they are hoping that the algorithm will suggest the time and date of their planned arrest, since no one other than the authorities would be typing in that phrase. Part of the title text seems to have been erroneously inserted into an HTML anchor tag on the image; adding this to the existing title text produces "WE WILL ARREST THE REVOLUTION MEMBERS [AT THE JULY 28TH MEETING][tab] "Cancel the meeting! Our cover is blown."" | |
− | Although the comic title is "Predictive Models", the term {{w|Predictive modelling}} usually refers to computer programs that try to predict outcomes from data aggregation, such as reviewing health records to identify people most at risk from certain diseases based on weight, prior injuries, etc., before testing directly for the diseases themselves. This is similar to but not precisely like the example in the comic, since predictive text is using direct input to predict further input, while predictive modelling is using related input (such as make and model of a car along with driver acceleration patterns) to predict a different output (such as likelihood of a crash). Both predictive text and predictive modelling could leak information as the comic suggests, however. Predictive text and the possibility to leak unintended information has been parodied on xkcd before in [[1068: Swiftkey]]. | + | Both examples assume that the revolutionaries and the authorities would be talking about very secret information in the clear on a network accessible to their adversaries. In the real world people engaged in sensitive activities would communicate via code, encryption, or both, or would do so through secure channels. There is still the danger of secret information leaking via non-secret channels, however. |
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+ | Although the comic title is "Predictive Models", the term {{w|Predictive modelling}} usually refers to computer programs that try to predict outcomes from data aggregation, such as reviewing health records to identify people most at risk from certain diseases based on weight, prior injuries, etc., before testing directly for the diseases themselves. This is similar to but not precisely like the example in the comic, since predictive text is using direct input to predict further input, while predictive modelling is using related input (such as make and model of a car along with driver acceleration patterns) to predict a different output (such as likelihood of a crash). Both predictive text and predictive modelling could leak information as the comic suggests, however. A famous example occurred in World War II. The Germans kept tank production figures a secret, but they gave items like engine blocks sequential serial numbers. The Allies wanted to know exact tank production figures, so the solved the {{w|German tank problem}} by using statistical methods to analyze the the distribution of these numbers on captured vehicles. They were able to predict tank production figures extremely accurately, to the point they predicted 270 tanks in a month when 276 were actually built. Thus the secret information on tank production leaked. | ||
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+ | Predictive text and the possibility to leak unintended information has been parodied on xkcd before in [[1068: Swiftkey]]. | ||
==Transcript== | ==Transcript== | ||
− | :[Cueball | + | |
− | :Cueball typing: Long live the revolution. Our next meeting will be at | + | :[Single panel with Cueball sitting at a desk typing on a laptop.] |
+ | :Cueball typing: "Long live the revolution. Our next meeting will be at|" [Predictive text tool suggests in grey text] "the docks at midnight on June 28.[TAB]" | ||
:Cueball: ''Aha, found them!'' | :Cueball: ''Aha, found them!'' | ||
− | :[Caption below | + | :[Caption below panel] |
:When you train predictive models on input from your users, it can leak information in unexpected ways. | :When you train predictive models on input from your users, it can leak information in unexpected ways. | ||
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{{comic discussion}} | {{comic discussion}} | ||
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