Editing 2328: Space Basketball
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==Explanation== | ==Explanation== | ||
− | + | {{incomplete|Created by a METEORIC BASKETBALL. Should discuss expected time to make 30 shots in a row at 30% (and other percentages), odds of meteorite impact, and maybe NBA Jam and Space Jam. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}} | |
− | Randall wishes to play basketball against {{w|outer space}} | + | This comic strip is another one of Randall's [[:Category:My Hobby|strange hobbies]] (released within the same week as his last hobby comic, [[2326: Five Word Jargon]]). Perhaps due to his difficulties in making friends (cf. [[1917: How to Make Friends]]), Randall wishes to play basketball but has nobody to play with, and so he chooses to play against {{w|outer space}}. His goal is to make thirty baskets in a row before the universe puts a meteor through his hoop. (Technically, it would be a ''meteorite'', the term given to meteors that reach the surface, rather than breaking up in the atmosphere.) |
− | + | Randall estimates that his success rate at {{w|free throw|free-throw shooting}} is approximately 30%. Therefore, the chances of Cueball making 30 shots in a row is (0.3)^30, or about 1 in five quadrillion (2×10^-16); for comparison, there are approximately 6 quadrillion seconds remaining in the expected lifetime of the Sun (5 billion years), so if Randall has a chute set up under the basket and enough basketballs to sustain a constant high rate of shooting, he has "decent" odds of achieving his goal before the Sun burns out. | |
− | + | The lifetime odds of being killed by a meteorite have been estimated at 1 in 75,000, 600,000 or 700,000 [https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-probability-of-me-getting-killed-by-a-meteorite-in-the-next-one-hour]. These calculations are usually based on the probability of being alive at a time when a huge impact kills billions of people. Randall just uses the chance of one meteorite shot on Earth hitting this hoop (hoop-area / Earth-area = 3.2×10^-16) which is in the same range as (0.3)^30. Actual {{w|meteorite fall statistics}} report an average of 1.2 meteorites per year hitting the European continent which suggests that the average probability of Cueball winning after each shot attempt is about equivalent to a meteorite passing through the hoop over the period of 10 hours. Therefore Cueball has a better chance of winning than the universe "on the short term" if he makes more than 840 free-shot attempts per year for the rest of his life. The expected time for the universe to actually "complete" the challenge would be in the range of 8 billion years, the same magnitude to the current age of the universe and longer than the estimated remaining lifetime of the {{w|solar system}}. | |
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− | In the title text, Randall assumes that he would get better at free throwing shooting with practice in his lifetime ("the short term"). Some of the world's best basketball players have free-throw percentages over 90%, and even professional players with reputations of being "poor" free-throw shooters (e.g. Shaquille O'Neal) are above 50%. If Randall can improve his percentage to 50%, his odds of sinking thirty baskets in a row improve to "nearly" one-in-a-billion, while a member of the elite {{w|50–40–90 club}} would have a probability better than four percent of making thirty free-throws in a row. Some specialists have achieved much higher success rates, with the record for most consecutive baskets being held by {{w|Tom Amberry}} with 2,750. | + | In the title text, Randall assumes that he would get better at free throwing shooting with practice in his lifetime ("the short term"). Some of the world's best basketball players have free-throw percentages over 90%, and even professional players with reputations of being "poor" free-throw shooters (e.g. Shaquille O'Neal) are above 50%. If Randall can improve his percentage to 50%, his odds of sinking thirty baskets in a row improve to "nearly" one-in-a-billion, while a member of the elite {{w|50–40–90 club}} would have a probability better than four percent of making thirty free-throws in a row. Some specialists have achieved much higher success rates, with the record for most consecutive baskets being held by {{w|Tom Amberry}} with 2,750. If this "game against the universe" is of any cosmic significance (as in the 1996 comedy film ''{{w|Space Jam}}''), any of those players would be better representatives of Earth than Randall. |
− | However | + | However he acknowledges that in "the long term" (the life of the universe, or at least the Earth), the Earth will be hit by very many meteorites; even though it is more likely that Randall will make his thirty free-throws before a meteor passes through his basket, he does not possess the cosmic lifespan{{Citation needed}} required to surmount the odds against him and actually have a good probability to witness either event. |
− | == | + | ==Transcript== |
− | + | {{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}} | |
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− | + | :[Cueball is standing in front of a basketball hoop, holding a basketball.] | |
− | :[Cueball | ||
:Cueball: Okay, here are the rules: | :Cueball: Okay, here are the rules: | ||
:Cueball: I have to make 30 shots in a row before a meteor falls through the hoop. | :Cueball: I have to make 30 shots in a row before a meteor falls through the hoop. | ||
:Cueball: I'm a 30% free throw shooter so the odds are actually pretty even. | :Cueball: I'm a 30% free throw shooter so the odds are actually pretty even. | ||
− | :Cueball: Ready... | + | :Cueball: Ready...go! |
:[Caption below panel:] | :[Caption below panel:] | ||
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{{comic discussion}} | {{comic discussion}} | ||
− | + | [[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]] | |
[[Category:My Hobby]] | [[Category:My Hobby]] | ||
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[[Category:Basketball]] | [[Category:Basketball]] | ||
[[Category:Astronomy]] | [[Category:Astronomy]] |