Editing 2476: Base Rate
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==Explanation== | ==Explanation== | ||
+ | {{incomplete|Created by a LEFTY. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}} | ||
+ | The "{{w|base rate}}" is a type of base probability, which a statistical probability can be based on. The {{w|base rate fallacy}} is a type of error in which people are presented with the rate at which something occurs throughout an entire population along with more specific information information about a subset of that population, and tend to ignore the whole-population information in favor of the specific information. For instance, imagine a disease that is present in 1% of the population, for which there is a test with a 5% false-positive rate. This test might be presented as "95% accurate", and so people who receive a positive result from such a test are likely to think they have the disease. However, someone who receives a positive test result has only a 17% chance of actually having the disease; a much more likely reason for the positive result, occurring in 83% of all positive test results, is a false (wrong) positive. | ||
− | + | In this case, the joke is that 90% of people are right-handed, so Cueball's claim that right-handers commit 90% of base-rate errors is itself a base-rate error. Further, the pointer is held in Cueball's right hand, indicating that he too is right handed as he makes the base rate error. | |
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− | In this case, the joke is that 90% of people are right-handed, so | ||
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Something similar occurs in [[1138: Heatmap]], where Cueball makes inferences simply based on a population map of the US, instead of statistical evidence. | Something similar occurs in [[1138: Heatmap]], where Cueball makes inferences simply based on a population map of the US, instead of statistical evidence. | ||
==Transcript== | ==Transcript== | ||
− | :[Cueball | + | {{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}} |
+ | :[Cueball standing in front of a screen, holding a pointer. The screen shows a bar graph with 2 bars, labeled "L" and "R". The "R" bar is significantly greater than "L".] | ||
:Cueball: Remember, right-handed people commit 90% of all base rate errors. | :Cueball: Remember, right-handed people commit 90% of all base rate errors. | ||
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{{comic discussion}} | {{comic discussion}} | ||
− | + | [[Category:Statistics]] | |
[[Category:Bar charts]] | [[Category:Bar charts]] | ||
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]] | [[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]] | ||
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