Editing 893: 65 Years
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| titletext = The universe is probably littered with the one-planet graves of cultures which made the sensible economic decision that there's no good reason to go into space--each discovered, studied, and remembered by the ones who made the irrational decision. | | titletext = The universe is probably littered with the one-planet graves of cultures which made the sensible economic decision that there's no good reason to go into space--each discovered, studied, and remembered by the ones who made the irrational decision. | ||
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==Explanation== | ==Explanation== | ||
− | [[Randall]] is | + | {{incomplete|The astronaut data should be summarized in a table.}} |
+ | Over 65 years [[Randall]] is projecting the number of living humans who have walked on another world, counting the Moon as a 'world'. He is using {{w|actuarial table}}s or life tables which shows for each age the probability that a certain person will be alive by their next birthday. Although not named, the graph refers to the 12 {{w|List of Apollo astronauts#Apollo astronauts who walked on the Moon|Apollo astronauts}} who landed on the Moon between 1969 and 1972. | ||
− | + | In particular, Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin landed in July 1969. Pete Conrad and Alan Bean landed in November. Alan Shepard and Edgar Mitchell: February '71. David Scott and James Irwin: July '71. John W. Young and Charles Duke: April '72. Eugene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt: December '72. | |
− | + | Irwin died in '91. Shepard and Conrad died in '98 and '99 respectively, making the total 9 as of the date this comic was published. Armstrong died in '12, so the current number is 8. The oldest living person to have landed on the moon is Aldrin, 83. There are two 82-year-olds, two 80s, one 78 and two 77s. | |
− | + | This comic assumes that no one else is going to walk on another world going forward into the future which, as is mentioned in the title text, is a terrible idea for the future of the human race. If the human race only exists on one planet — one disaster can destroy the whole race. However, if humans extend their society to other planets, they lessen the risk of complete extinction. | |
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− | + | == Table of Men-who-walked-the-moon == | |
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{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
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|- style="background:#ccc;" | |- style="background:#ccc;" | ||
| style="width:20px;"| | | style="width:20px;"| | ||
− | | '''Name''' | + | | style="width:120px;"| '''Name''' |
− | | '''Born''' | + | | style="width:120px;"| '''Born''' |
− | | '''Died''' | + | | style="width:120px;"| '''Died''' |
− | | ''' | + | | style="width:120px;"| '''Life Expectancy''' |
− | | '''Age at | + | | style="width:85px;"| '''Age at<br>first step''' |
− | | '''Mission''' | + | | style="width:70px;"| '''Mission''' |
− | | '''Lunar dates''' | + | | style="width:145px;"| '''Lunar [[Extra-vehicular activity|EVA]] dates''' |
− | | '''Service''' | + | | style="width:80px;"| '''Service''' |
− | | '''Alma Mater''' | + | | style="width:180px;"| '''Alma Mater''' |
|- style="background:#def;" | |- style="background:#def;" | ||
− | | 1. || {{w|Neil Armstrong}}|| 1930- | + | | 1. || {{w|Neil Armstrong}}|| 1930-8-5 || 2012-8-25 || || 38y 11m 15d |
− | |rowspan="2"| {{w|Apollo | + | |rowspan="2"| {{w|Apollo 11}} ||rowspan="2"| July 21, 1969 || {{w|NASA}}<ref name="civilian">Armstrong had left the US Navy and was already a NASA employee when he and {{w|Elliot See}} became the first civilian astronauts in Astronaut Group 2. See Armstrong's [http://history.nasa.gov/ap11ann/astrobios.htm#Armstrong NASA biography] and a [http://www.nasa.gov/vision/space/features/armstrong_ambassador_of_exploration.html description of his receiving a NASA award], among others.</ref> || {{w|Purdue University}}, {{w|University of Southern California}} |
|- style="background:#def;" | |- style="background:#def;" | ||
− | | 2. || {{w|Buzz Aldrin}}|| 1930- | + | | 2. || {{w|Buzz Aldrin}}|| 1930-1-20 || || || 39y 6m 0d || {{w|United States Air Force|Air Force}} || {{w|United States Military Academy}}, {{w|MIT}} |
|- style="background:#ffe8e8;" | |- style="background:#ffe8e8;" | ||
− | | 3. || {{w|Pete Conrad}} || 1930- | + | | 3. || {{w|Pete Conrad}} || 1930-6-2 || 1999-7-8 || || 39y 5m 17d |
− | |rowspan="2"| {{w|Apollo 12}} ||rowspan="2"| November | + | |rowspan="2"| {{w|Apollo 12}} ||rowspan="2"| November 19–20, 1969 || {{w|United States Navy|Navy}} || {{w|Princeton University}} |
|- style="background:#ffe8e8;" | |- style="background:#ffe8e8;" | ||
− | | 4. || {{w|Alan Bean}}|| 1932- | + | | 4. || {{w|Alan Bean}}|| 1932-3-15 || || || 37y 8m 4d || {{w|United States Navy|Navy}} || {{w|University of Texas, Austin}} |
|- style="background:#def;" | |- style="background:#def;" | ||
− | | 5. || {{w|Alan Shepard}} || 1923-11-18 || 1998- | + | | 5. || {{w|Alan Shepard}} || 1923-11-18 || 1998-7-21 || || 47y 2m 18d |
|rowspan="2"| {{w|Apollo 14}} ||rowspan="2"| February 5–6, 1971 || {{w|United States Navy|Navy}} || {{w|United States Naval Academy}} | |rowspan="2"| {{w|Apollo 14}} ||rowspan="2"| February 5–6, 1971 || {{w|United States Navy|Navy}} || {{w|United States Naval Academy}} | ||
|- style="background:#def;" | |- style="background:#def;" | ||
− | | 6. || {{w|Edgar Mitchell}}|| 1930- | + | | 6. || {{w|Edgar Mitchell}}|| 1930-9-7 || || || 40y 4m 19d || {{w|United States Navy|Navy}} || {{w|Carnegie Mellon University}}, {{w|Naval Postgraduate School}}, {{w|MIT}} |
|- style="background:#ffe8e8;" | |- style="background:#ffe8e8;" | ||
− | | 7. || | + | | 7. || {w|David Scott}} || 1932-6-6 || || || 39y 1m 25d |
− | |rowspan="2"| {{w|Apollo 15}} ||rowspan="2"| July | + | |rowspan="2"| {{w|Apollo 15}} ||rowspan="2"| July 31 – August 2, 1971 || {{w|United States Air Force|Air Force}} || {{w|University of Michigan}} (freshman year, and later, an honorary doctorate), {{w|United States Military Academy}}, {{w|MIT}} |
|- style="background:#ffe8e8;" | |- style="background:#ffe8e8;" | ||
− | | 8. || {{w|James Irwin}} || 1930- | + | | 8. || {{w|James Irwin}} || 1930-3-17 || 1991-8-8 || || 41y 4m 14d || {{w|United States Air Force|Air Force}} || {{w|United States Naval Academy}}, {{w|University of Michigan}} |
|- style="background:#def;" | |- style="background:#def;" | ||
− | | 9. || {{w|John Young (astronaut)|John W. Young}}|| 1930- | + | | 9. || {{w|John Young (astronaut)|John W. Young}}|| 1930-9-24 || || || 41y 6m 28d |
|rowspan="2"| {{w|Apollo 16}} ||rowspan="2"| April 21–23, 1972 || {{w|United States Navy|Navy}} || {{w|Georgia Institute of Technology}} | |rowspan="2"| {{w|Apollo 16}} ||rowspan="2"| April 21–23, 1972 || {{w|United States Navy|Navy}} || {{w|Georgia Institute of Technology}} | ||
|- style="background:#def;" | |- style="background:#def;" | ||
− | | 10. || {{w|Charles Duke}} || 1935-10- | + | | 10. || {{w|Charles Duke}} || 1935-10-3 || || || 36y 6m 18d || {{w|United States Air Force|Air Force}} || {{w|United States Naval Academy}}, {{w|MIT}} |
|- style="background:#ffe8e8;" | |- style="background:#ffe8e8;" | ||
− | | 11. || {{w|Eugene Cernan}} || 1934- | + | | 11. || {{w|Eugene Cernan}} || 1934-3-14 || || || 38y 9m 7d |
|rowspan="2"| {{w|Apollo 17}} ||rowspan="2"| December 11–14, 1972 || {{w|United States Navy|Navy}} || {{w|Purdue University}}, {{w|Naval Postgraduate School}} | |rowspan="2"| {{w|Apollo 17}} ||rowspan="2"| December 11–14, 1972 || {{w|United States Navy|Navy}} || {{w|Purdue University}}, {{w|Naval Postgraduate School}} | ||
|- style="background:#ffe8e8;" | |- style="background:#ffe8e8;" | ||
− | | 12. || {{w|Harrison Schmitt}} || 1935- | + | | 12. || {{w|Harrison Schmitt}} || 1935-7-3 || || || 37y 5m 8d || {{w|NASA}} || {{w|Caltech}}, {{w|University of Oslo}} (exchange), {{w|Harvard University}} |
|} | |} | ||
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+ | ==Transcript== | ||
+ | :[A graph titled 'Number of Living Humans Who Have Walked on Another World' -- its y-axis is numbered 5, 10, 15, its x-axis increments every ten years from 1960-2040. The line of the graph has a bracket above it that says '65 Years', starting at 1969, ending in 2034. | ||
+ | :The line starts at 1969 and increases steeply to 12 by 1972. It then plateaus until the early nineties declines gradually to 9 between 1991-1999, and then plateaus again. | ||
+ | :From 2011-2035, which is labeled 'Projected Actuarial Tables', the line branches into three and begins to decline more steeply to zero. The area between the first and second branch is shaded and labeled '5th percentile' and the area between the second and third branch is shaded and labeled '95th percentile.'] | ||
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+ | ==Trivia== | ||
+ | *The theme of actuarial projections was explored earlier in [[493: Actuarial]]; Randall's morbid python script for both was given in [http://blog.xkcd.com/2012/07/12/a-morbid-python-script/ the blag]. | ||
{{comic discussion}} | {{comic discussion}} | ||
− | [[Category: | + | [[Category:Charts]] |
[[Category:Math]] | [[Category:Math]] | ||
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