Editing Talk:1252: Increased Risk
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This paragraph does not specify the use of a fair coin. If 9 flips all come up heads, then there is strong statistical evidence that the probability of getting a head in a flip is not 50% (P=1/2^9=1/512~0.2%). It is still true that "past experience does not impact subsequent flips", but in this case, our judgment about the true probability should change in light of new data. [[Special:Contributions/199.27.128.87|199.27.128.87]] 10:27, 13 May 2014 (UTC) | This paragraph does not specify the use of a fair coin. If 9 flips all come up heads, then there is strong statistical evidence that the probability of getting a head in a flip is not 50% (P=1/2^9=1/512~0.2%). It is still true that "past experience does not impact subsequent flips", but in this case, our judgment about the true probability should change in light of new data. [[Special:Contributions/199.27.128.87|199.27.128.87]] 10:27, 13 May 2014 (UTC) | ||
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Just a note, (may have been mentioned) the third trip has the same odds as trip one and two, the odds do not increase with past results (not that it matters with such low odds). {{unsigned ip|108.162.221.8}} | Just a note, (may have been mentioned) the third trip has the same odds as trip one and two, the odds do not increase with past results (not that it matters with such low odds). {{unsigned ip|108.162.221.8}} | ||