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| | :No, it doesn't count, because it's just '''prediction''', while the data set is of (official) '''planned launch dates'''. -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 22:06, 2 July 2018 (UTC) | | :No, it doesn't count, because it's just '''prediction''', while the data set is of (official) '''planned launch dates'''. -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 22:06, 2 July 2018 (UTC) |
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| − | :The Wikipedia data (taking the midpoint for ranges) fits a linear function with slope 0.660618 and intercept 687.739. This implies convergence at 2026.45, which is why Randall is predicting late 2026 for the actual launch. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.22.56|172.69.22.56]] 15:04, 10 July 2018 (UTC)
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| | [[wikipedia:Heinz von Foerster#Doomsday equation|Von Foersters's doomsday]] is Friday 13th of November 2026. (cue Twilight Zone intro) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.89.175|162.158.89.175]] 21:20, 2 July 2018 (UTC) | | [[wikipedia:Heinz von Foerster#Doomsday equation|Von Foersters's doomsday]] is Friday 13th of November 2026. (cue Twilight Zone intro) [[Special:Contributions/162.158.89.175|162.158.89.175]] 21:20, 2 July 2018 (UTC) |
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| | Why does he keep saying it's 2021? Is he trying to skip Trump's term or what? --[[Special:Contributions/172.68.211.10|172.68.211.10]] 00:30, 3 July 2018 (UTC) | | Why does he keep saying it's 2021? Is he trying to skip Trump's term or what? --[[Special:Contributions/172.68.211.10|172.68.211.10]] 00:30, 3 July 2018 (UTC) |
| − | Why do you think that Trump will get only 1 term?[[Special:Contributions/141.101.76.70|141.101.76.70]] 17:10, 3 July 2018 (UTC)
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| | This is the same chart for the new airport in Berlin. Sadly its slope is not less than one, it is indeed accelerating...<br> | | This is the same chart for the new airport in Berlin. Sadly its slope is not less than one, it is indeed accelerating...<br> |
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| | 2017 2022<br> | | 2017 2022<br> |
| | [[User:Fabian42|Fabian42]] ([[User talk:Fabian42|talk]]) 07:57, 3 July 2018 (UTC) | | [[User:Fabian42|Fabian42]] ([[User talk:Fabian42|talk]]) 07:57, 3 July 2018 (UTC) |
| − | :[https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bau_des_Flughafens_Berlin_Brandenburg#cite_ref-136] says that the planned launch date from December 2017 is in October 2020 (not 2022). That would make the slope slightly less than 1 (unless you ignore the 2016->2011 data point, as outlier) --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.91.35|162.158.91.35]] 09:27, 4 July 2018 (UTC)
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| − | ::There was a 2022 prediction earlier in 2017, I took the maximum value for each year. And honestly, 2202 sounds more reasonable than 2020 for me. [[User:Fabian42|Fabian42]] ([[User talk:Fabian42|talk]]) 14:39, 4 July 2018 (UTC)
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| − | I feel a quadratic regression would be needed to determine acceleration / deceleration [[Special:Contributions/172.68.59.24|172.68.59.24]] 13:54, 3 July 2018 (UTC)
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| − | : If you plot out the least-squares fit as it changes over time (i.e. repeat Randall's graph as each new data point was added), it fits a quadratic quite well. And converges to a 2025 date.
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| − | I wonder what this chart would look like for new york's 2nd avenue subway.
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| − | [[Special:Contributions/162.158.75.130|162.158.75.130]] 17:36, 3 July 2018 (UTC)
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| − | At least there _is_ a slope. How about Trump's wall? [[Special:Contributions/173.245.52.151|173.245.52.151]] 00:52, 4 July 2018 (UTC)
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| − | Two more lines are coming together... the year and the XKCD index. 2018 should happen next week. [[User:IonFreeman|IonFreeman]] ([[User talk:IonFreeman|talk]]) 14:22, 5 July 2018 (UTC)
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| − | The last three data points have a slope greater than one. Just sayin'. [[User:Redbelly98|Redbelly98]] ([[User talk:Redbelly98|talk]]) 19:55, 29 July 2018 (UTC)
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| − | :"NASA announced that the launch date has once again been delayed to 31 October 2021." THE RIDE NEVER ENDS [[Special:Contributions/108.162.215.188|108.162.215.188]] 05:24, 17 September 2020 (UTC)
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| − | ::November to December 2021 now... amazing. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.35.65|172.69.35.65]] 20:24, 21 June 2021 (UTC)
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| − | == November 2021 ==
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| − | Is [https://www.space.com/james-webb-space-telescope-launch-delay-november-2021] on track for the extrapolation shown? [[Special:Contributions/172.69.35.115|172.69.35.115]] 18:31, 24 June 2021 (UTC)
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| − | == Update from 2021 ==
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| − | Turns out the last update in the comic seems to have been correct. As of Sept '21, it's still due to go up in Nov. '21.
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| − | https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/about/launch.html
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| − | https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-announces-new-james-webb-space-telescope-target-launch-date
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| − | [https://i.imgur.com/BssUkbG.png '''Updated Image''']. I've added the blue dots to represent the updated launch dates. (Still in 2021) [[Special:Contributions/172.69.48.147|172.69.48.147]] 20:43, 31 August 2021 (UTC)
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| − | On September 8, ESA has announced December 18, 2021, as the planned launch date.[https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Space_Science/Webb/Targeted_launch_date_for_Webb_18_December_2021] 2021 remains possible, but if there are further delays (and launches like this are delayed frequently), we may indeed slip into 2022. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.92.245|162.158.92.245]] 05:55, 9 September 2021 (UTC)
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| − | The launch readiness date is moving to no earlier than Dec. 22 because they [https://blogs.nasa.gov/webb/2021/11/22/nasa-provides-update-on-webb-telescope-launch/ '''almost dropped it''']
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| − | [[Special:Contributions/141.101.76.223|141.101.76.223]] 09:02, 23 November 2021 (UTC)
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| − | I find it interesting that in [https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/2550:_Webb Comic #2550], posted 3 December 2021, Mr. Munroe returns to the topic of the Webb with a gag involving a particular launch date. This suggests to me that he has confidence the launch is indeed drawing nearer.
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| − | [[Special:Contributions/172.70.126.221|172.70.126.221]] 08:08, 5 December 2021 (UTC)
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| − | : Actually, I think that the December 2021 launch date is good. The vehicle is complete and the Ariane 5 is ready. (Edit: i forgot to sign my post) --[[Special:Contributions/162.158.62.120|162.158.62.120]] 02:31, 6 December 2021 (UTC)
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| − | Delayed to [https://www.space.com/james-webb-space-telescope-launch-delay-december-24 Christmas eve] now due to comms issue between satellite and rocket --[[Special:Contributions/172.70.162.77|172.70.162.77]] 15:50, 15 December 2021 (UTC)
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| − | And now it's [https://www.space.com/james-webb-space-telescope-weather-delay-christmas-launch Christmas Day], due to weather. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.210.219|108.162.210.219]] 04:51, 22 December 2021 (UTC)
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| − | It hath LAUNCHED!!![[Special:Contributions/172.70.210.183|172.70.210.183]] 04:55, 27 December 2021 (UTC)
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