Editing Talk:2107: Launch Risk
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− | Gave a | + | Gave a brief explanation, but I think it would be good to mention probability based logical fallacies and https://what-if.xkcd.com/55/. Don’t know how to link without it looking bad. This is my first page! [[User:Netherin5|Netherin5]] ([[User talk:Netherin5|talk]]) 17:28, 4 February 2019 (UTC) |
Revised to a more extensive explanation including the fallacy that the second astronaut apparently realizes in mid-reply. [[User:SteveMB|SteveMB]] ([[User talk:SteveMB|talk]]) | Revised to a more extensive explanation including the fallacy that the second astronaut apparently realizes in mid-reply. [[User:SteveMB|SteveMB]] ([[User talk:SteveMB|talk]]) | ||
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Would be nice to add something about risk perception of common vs. uncommon and dramatic vs. more mundane seeming events. e.g. in US, lifetime chance of death from flu, 1 in 63; from automobile accident 1 in 84; from lightning 1 in 79,746; from shark attack, 1 in 3,748,067 https://www.floridamuseum.ufl.edu/shark-attacks/odds/compare-risk/death/ [[Special:Contributions/108.162.245.166|108.162.245.166]] 18:52, 4 February 2019 (UTC) | Would be nice to add something about risk perception of common vs. uncommon and dramatic vs. more mundane seeming events. e.g. in US, lifetime chance of death from flu, 1 in 63; from automobile accident 1 in 84; from lightning 1 in 79,746; from shark attack, 1 in 3,748,067 https://www.floridamuseum.ufl.edu/shark-attacks/odds/compare-risk/death/ [[Special:Contributions/108.162.245.166|108.162.245.166]] 18:52, 4 February 2019 (UTC) | ||
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The risk to be killed as an astronaut should be add somewhere (it is easy to find number of death/total number of astronaut) if someone want to make the morbid calculation. [[User:Xavier Combelle|Xavier Combelle]] ([[User talk:Xavier Combelle|talk]]) 18:55, 4 February 2019 (UTC) | The risk to be killed as an astronaut should be add somewhere (it is easy to find number of death/total number of astronaut) if someone want to make the morbid calculation. [[User:Xavier Combelle|Xavier Combelle]] ([[User talk:Xavier Combelle|talk]]) 18:55, 4 February 2019 (UTC) | ||
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These were mostly Shuttle as the crews were larger. However,the title is Launch Risk, so the figure would be less than half that, but still about 1.5%. Furthermore, if you ignore the Space Planes the Launch Risk is probably very low. [[User:RIIW - Ponder it|RIIW - Ponder it]] ([[User talk:RIIW - Ponder it|talk]]) 19:07, 4 February 2019 (UTC) | These were mostly Shuttle as the crews were larger. However,the title is Launch Risk, so the figure would be less than half that, but still about 1.5%. Furthermore, if you ignore the Space Planes the Launch Risk is probably very low. [[User:RIIW - Ponder it|RIIW - Ponder it]] ([[User talk:RIIW - Ponder it|talk]]) 19:07, 4 February 2019 (UTC) | ||
− | + | We should get a better source for the lightning info: The current citation is confirmed as a biased source owned and controlled by socialist Jews. | |
− | + | [[Special:Contributions/108.162.245.220|108.162.245.220]] 19:10, 4 February 2019 (UTC) | |
− | We should get a better source for the lightning info: The current citation is confirmed | ||
− | [[Special:Contributions/108.162.245.220|108.162.245.220]] 19:10, 4 | ||
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I'd say that part of the joke was the phrasing. The astronaut's friend said "You're more likely to be struck by lightning than selected as an astronaut," which isn't very reassuring; if the friend had said "You're more likely to be killed by a lightning strike than to die in spaceflight," it might have been a consolation (albeit a fallacious one). | I'd say that part of the joke was the phrasing. The astronaut's friend said "You're more likely to be struck by lightning than selected as an astronaut," which isn't very reassuring; if the friend had said "You're more likely to be killed by a lightning strike than to die in spaceflight," it might have been a consolation (albeit a fallacious one). | ||
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