Editing Talk:2169: Predictive Models

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If you click on the comic, it opens a page with error 404. Looking at the URL, it says "At the July 28th meeting", which I assume is the prediction result to the title text suggesting that they will be 1 month late. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.106.174|162.158.106.174]] 17:13, 28 June 2019 (UTC)

: Fixsed it, my years of mediawiki knowledge have finally come to use. [[User:Iggyvolz|Iggyvolz]] ([[User talk:Iggyvolz|talk]])

In the HTML tag for the link (the <a> tag surrounding the comic image) after the link it says "cancel the meeting! our cover is blown" [[User:Everlastingwonder|Everlastingwonder]] ([[User talk:Everlastingwonder|talk]]) 17:21, 28 June 2019 (UTC)

In the [https://m.xkcd.com/2169/ mobile version], you can read «See also: [AT THE JULY 28TH MEETING][tab] "Cancel the meeting! Our cover is blown."» It leads to a 404, like the other examples in the comments here. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.44.136|172.69.44.136]] 17:31, 28 June 2019 (UTC)

This looks a whole lot like Gmail's [https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/05/smart-compose-using-neural-networks-to.html Smart Compose] [[Special:Contributions/172.68.206.76|172.68.206.76]]

Today GMail actually predicted the beginning of my mail correctly. I typed literally zero characters and it already knew how to continue. In the future, we won't even have to upload our brains to a computer, a backup will already be available there automatically. [[User:Fabian42|Fabian42]] ([[User talk:Fabian42|talk]]) 21:32, 28 June 2019 (UTC)

Not a backup, a simulation. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.219.184|108.162.219.184]] 04:46, 29 June 2019 (UTC)

: If you can't tell the difference, does it matter? [[Special:Contributions/173.245.48.147|173.245.48.147]] 17:04, 1 July 2019 (UTC)

On my Mac the title text only shows "WE WILL ARREST THE REVOLUTION MEMBERS" while on my iPad (where you long press to see title texts) long pressing only shows the link. Weird. Also someone remind me to check the link again on July 28. [[User:Herobrine|Herobrine]] ([[User talk:Herobrine|talk]]) 13:10, 29 June 2019 (UTC)

: On my Ubuntu system, both Firefox and Chrome display "WE WILL ARREST THE REVOLUTION MEMBERS" as the title text and "<nowiki>https://xkcd.com/[AT THE JULY 28TH MEETING][tab]</nowiki>" as the link target, which is also what's in the HTML source. Additionally, the HTML source is malformed, with quotes inside quotes in the href attribute. - [[User:Linneris|Linneris]] ([[User talk:Linneris|talk]]) 14:37, 29 June 2019 (UTC)
::Malformed. Precisely! I think there was a glitch while the comic was uploaded, which used the title text as a link in addition to as the title text. It didn't include the last part due to the quotes. It will be either fixed or legitimate, or at least make the href a little nicer. [[User:Jacky720|That's right, Jacky720 just signed this]] ([[User talk:Jacky720|talk]] | [[Special:Contributions/Jacky720|contribs]]) 21:24, 29 June 2019 (UTC)
:::Actually... Looking at the comic again (for the first time on my PC), I would like to rethink that. I think this is Randall's method of demonstrating the [tab]; clicking and looking at the URL. [EDIT] Man, the more I think, the weirder it gets. Maybe it's about how sometimes you can find the information on the client side in the code where it should be hidden? I don't know anymore. [[User:Jacky720|That's right, Jacky720 just signed this]] ([[User talk:Jacky720|talk]] | [[Special:Contributions/Jacky720|contribs]]) 21:27, 29 June 2019 (UTC)
::When you look at the source of [https://xkcd.com/2169/%5BAT%20THE%20JULY%2028TH%20MEETING%5D%5Btab%5D that 404 page], you can see six HTML comments with the content ''a padding to disable MSIE and Chrome friendly error page''. This is to prevent MSIE and Chrome from displaying "helpful" proprietary error pages. If you change the link in the slightest, you will also get a 404 page, but without these comments. I assume that either this was a glitch (intended or unintended) and this particular 404 page was modified so that everyone can see that the authors are aware of it, *or* it's a hint pointing to somewhere else. A rabbit hole maybe? I would like the latter to be true, but I haven't found anything.--[[Special:Contributions/162.158.90.168|162.158.90.168]] 22:42, 29 June 2019 (UTC)
:::Not for me. I see the same tiny Nginx 404 page with the same HTML source as any other 404 page due to invalid link on xkcd.com. - [[User:Linneris|Linneris]] ([[User talk:Linneris|talk]]) 07:14, 30 June 2019 (UTC)
::My computer did that, but then it didn't happen anymore and the title text was complete.[[Special:Contributions/172.69.44.146|172.69.44.146]] 13:09, 22 July 2019 (UTC)

This reminds me of that time where via data analytics on things like shopping habits, [https://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/19/magazine/shopping-habits.html Target figured out that a teen girl was pregnant before her father did]. [[User:Ahiijny|Ahiijny]] ([[User talk:Ahiijny|talk]]) 06:42, 30 June 2019 (UTC)

I tried this on google, and got "we will arrest chamisa" and "the meeting will be in room 27" and "our next meeting will be at 3 p.m. on wednesday".  Any more? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.59.214|162.158.59.214]] 19:16, 30 June 2019 (UTC)

I decided to see what a more sophisticated predictive model would do, so I plugged it into Talk to Transformer. The output: "Long live the revolution. Our next meeting will be at 10 a.m. on December 14 at the Cressey Building, 1636 S. Second St. Please invite your friends, family, and coworkers! For those interested in donating to the cause, please contact:" I'm legitimately impressed. [[User:Arcorann|Arcorann]] ([[User talk:Arcorann|talk]]) 01:03, 1 July 2019 (UTC)

Thinking about predictive text, in combination with the advice on the futility of making people change their passwords frequently, perhaps systems which require people to change their passwords could be more helpful by observing the pattern the user is using, and suggesting what the next password should be. [https://www.troyhunt.com/passwords-evolved-authentication-guidance-for-the-modern-era/ Passwords Evolved: Authentication Guidance for the Modern Era] [[Special:Contributions/162.158.106.216|162.158.106.216]] 20:05, 1 July 2019 (UTC)

This paragraph was in the explanation, however the cited source gives no information about how the private correspondence was obtained, and no suggestion that the privacy of the communication channel was compromised.  (The most obvious way that such information would be obtained is that somebody who was party to the communication made it available.)  I moved it here in case somebody has sources to show that it was a breach of security.
"As humanity adapts to a digital world, people are finding that their digital communications provide the illusion of confidentiality, with damaging results when the information leaks out.  Real-life examples include a [https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-36391957 2016 British trainee doctor strike], where a technically-secure WhatsApp group leaked information to the press." [[Special:Contributions/108.162.245.220|108.162.245.220]] 05:18, 3 July 2019 (UTC)

Incomplete tag worth saving for posterity, due to H2G2 reference: Created by a PREDICTIVE MODEL THAT WILL BE FIRST AGAINST THE WALL WHEN THE REVOLUTION COMES. --[[Special:Contributions/172.68.47.240|172.68.47.240]] 01:56, 12 July 2019 (UTC)

== Social media has been used in revolutions ==

Once revolutions achieve critical mass, they often communicate on more insecure channels. Many of the Arab Spring revolutions involved spread through Twitter. Broadly speaking the security vs contagiousness issues often cause disagreement among revolutionaries.

I.E. Trotskyist/Stalinist disagreements over "Permanent revolution" (expansionist) vs "Socialism in one country" (security and development of the USSR without spending all available surplus on spreading communism directly).