Editing Talk:2370: Prediction
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::Yare yare, not knowing about Jojo's Bizzare Adventure. I can see where OP is coming from but I don't think Randall watches anime... | ::Yare yare, not knowing about Jojo's Bizzare Adventure. I can see where OP is coming from but I don't think Randall watches anime... | ||
::Now, let's talk about another misconception: lot of people intuitively think that an if event has chance of 1/7, it will almost surely happen at least once in seven tries. In reality, that chance is just 66%. -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 00:17, 10 October 2020 (UTC) | ::Now, let's talk about another misconception: lot of people intuitively think that an if event has chance of 1/7, it will almost surely happen at least once in seven tries. In reality, that chance is just 66%. -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 00:17, 10 October 2020 (UTC) | ||
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::Yup, this is another politics comic. It's very similar to [[1131: Math]], and also reflects similar frustrations as the more recent [[2357]], although from a different angle (2357 was about lack of respect for polls, while this one's about poor grasp of odds and probability in the context of election models). [[User:Pelosujamo|Pelosujamo]] ([[User talk:Pelosujamo|talk]]) 04:09, 10 October 2020 (UTC) | ::Yup, this is another politics comic. It's very similar to [[1131: Math]], and also reflects similar frustrations as the more recent [[2357]], although from a different angle (2357 was about lack of respect for polls, while this one's about poor grasp of odds and probability in the context of election models). [[User:Pelosujamo|Pelosujamo]] ([[User talk:Pelosujamo|talk]]) 04:09, 10 October 2020 (UTC) | ||
I don't know of Randall's got a series of White Hat comics sitting ready (the last one being [[2368]]) but he didn't want it to look like a 'series' so padded with something else. If we've got another such dialogue before the end of next week, it may be a sign he's recently had a particularly bad conversation/message-session with someone and just wanted to vent a bit. And I wouldn't blame him, if that's so. [[Special:Contributions/141.101.107.82|141.101.107.82]] 00:24, 10 October 2020 (UTC) | I don't know of Randall's got a series of White Hat comics sitting ready (the last one being [[2368]]) but he didn't want it to look like a 'series' so padded with something else. If we've got another such dialogue before the end of next week, it may be a sign he's recently had a particularly bad conversation/message-session with someone and just wanted to vent a bit. And I wouldn't blame him, if that's so. [[Special:Contributions/141.101.107.82|141.101.107.82]] 00:24, 10 October 2020 (UTC) | ||
:(PS, pre-post edit, but not for the want of trying: CAPTCHA wanted me to identify tractors. Two obvious tractors, no tractors on ''any'' of the other tiles (definitely) but one of them had a road-roller. Refused to accept the two tractors only, and I'm refusing to support the presumably incorrect Id of the roller, so come back to edit this in, do my own venting, and perhaps I'll get a better CAPTCHA when I retry in a moment... (Thanks to an Edit Conflict after I was finished fighting the Captcha I'm able to come back to tell you that the next one was Stairs, and I aced that one! But gotta suffer at least one more, yet...)) Also [[Special:Contributions/141.101.107.82|141.101.107.82]] 00:24, 10 October 2020 (UTC) | :(PS, pre-post edit, but not for the want of trying: CAPTCHA wanted me to identify tractors. Two obvious tractors, no tractors on ''any'' of the other tiles (definitely) but one of them had a road-roller. Refused to accept the two tractors only, and I'm refusing to support the presumably incorrect Id of the roller, so come back to edit this in, do my own venting, and perhaps I'll get a better CAPTCHA when I retry in a moment... (Thanks to an Edit Conflict after I was finished fighting the Captcha I'm able to come back to tell you that the next one was Stairs, and I aced that one! But gotta suffer at least one more, yet...)) Also [[Special:Contributions/141.101.107.82|141.101.107.82]] 00:24, 10 October 2020 (UTC) | ||
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Probabilities are hard to understand intuitively when you're actually talking about a one-time event. If you roll a d6 a whole bunch of times, you'll get each face about 1 out of 6 times. But it's not like we can hold the election 100 times, and then we can see if Biden wins around 52 of them to prove Nate Silver right or wrong. Also, elections aren't random processes like rolling dice -- there are human beings making conscious decisions how to vote, and we like to believe that we understand human motivations and can predict what people will do, at least in aggregate (fields like economics and marketing depend on this). Unfortunately, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future (thank you, Yogi Berra). [[User:Barmar|Barmar]] ([[User talk:Barmar|talk]]) 05:44, 10 October 2020 (UTC) | Probabilities are hard to understand intuitively when you're actually talking about a one-time event. If you roll a d6 a whole bunch of times, you'll get each face about 1 out of 6 times. But it's not like we can hold the election 100 times, and then we can see if Biden wins around 52 of them to prove Nate Silver right or wrong. Also, elections aren't random processes like rolling dice -- there are human beings making conscious decisions how to vote, and we like to believe that we understand human motivations and can predict what people will do, at least in aggregate (fields like economics and marketing depend on this). Unfortunately, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future (thank you, Yogi Berra). [[User:Barmar|Barmar]] ([[User talk:Barmar|talk]]) 05:44, 10 October 2020 (UTC) | ||
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How do we know that Cueball doesn’t have a number of pre-recorded messages and he just chooses the one that suits the situation? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.155.54|162.158.155.54]] 09:26, 10 October 2020 (UTC) | How do we know that Cueball doesn’t have a number of pre-recorded messages and he just chooses the one that suits the situation? [[Special:Contributions/162.158.155.54|162.158.155.54]] 09:26, 10 October 2020 (UTC) | ||
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