Editing Talk:2476: Base Rate
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:::There is this : [https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/explain_xkcd:Community_portal/Miscellaneous#So_what_happened_to_the_site.3F post], but it does not help much yet... But great to be back live as long as it stays like this --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 12:08, 16 June 2021 (UTC) | :::There is this : [https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/explain_xkcd:Community_portal/Miscellaneous#So_what_happened_to_the_site.3F post], but it does not help much yet... But great to be back live as long as it stays like this --[[User:Kynde|Kynde]] ([[User talk:Kynde|talk]]) 12:08, 16 June 2021 (UTC) | ||
:I never realised how much I relied on this site to keep me busy until it went down. <span style="text-shadow:0 0 7px black">[[User:Beanie|<span style="font-size:11pt;color:#dddddd">Beanie</span>]]</span> <sup><span style="text-shadow:0 0 4px #000000">[[User talk:Beanie|<span style="font-size:8pt;color:#dddddd">talk</span>]]</span></sup> 10:29, 17 June 2021 (UTC) | :I never realised how much I relied on this site to keep me busy until it went down. <span style="text-shadow:0 0 7px black">[[User:Beanie|<span style="font-size:11pt;color:#dddddd">Beanie</span>]]</span> <sup><span style="text-shadow:0 0 4px #000000">[[User talk:Beanie|<span style="font-size:8pt;color:#dddddd">talk</span>]]</span></sup> 10:29, 17 June 2021 (UTC) | ||
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I can't tell if cueball is holding the pointer in his left or right hand [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.122|141.101.98.122]] 21:30, 15 June 2021 (UTC) | I can't tell if cueball is holding the pointer in his left or right hand [[Special:Contributions/141.101.98.122|141.101.98.122]] 21:30, 15 June 2021 (UTC) | ||
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::I’ll bet that about 90% of the not-very-good presenters you’ve seen were right-handed, therefore if Cueball is not very good, he’s probably right-handed.[[Special:Contributions/172.69.34.190|172.69.34.190]] 04:53, 16 June 2021 (UTC) | ::I’ll bet that about 90% of the not-very-good presenters you’ve seen were right-handed, therefore if Cueball is not very good, he’s probably right-handed.[[Special:Contributions/172.69.34.190|172.69.34.190]] 04:53, 16 June 2021 (UTC) | ||
Wouldn't cueball be technically correct, despite his logical error? Given a set of people who make base-rate errors, with no other qualifications, and given that 90 percent are right handed, wouldn't that make 90 percent of the people who make base rate errors right handed? [[Special:Contributions/172.69.71.180|172.69.71.180]] 13:21, 16 June 2021 (UTC) | Wouldn't cueball be technically correct, despite his logical error? Given a set of people who make base-rate errors, with no other qualifications, and given that 90 percent are right handed, wouldn't that make 90 percent of the people who make base rate errors right handed? [[Special:Contributions/172.69.71.180|172.69.71.180]] 13:21, 16 June 2021 (UTC) | ||
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Can someone explain here in the comments how, in the explanation, we go from that example of 1% / 5% false-positive rate to a 17% / 83%? [[Special:Contributions/172.69.34.190|172.69.34.190]] 17:14, 16 June 2021 (UTC) | Can someone explain here in the comments how, in the explanation, we go from that example of 1% / 5% false-positive rate to a 17% / 83%? [[Special:Contributions/172.69.34.190|172.69.34.190]] 17:14, 16 June 2021 (UTC) | ||
− | :Take a population of 10,000 tests. From the premise: 1% (100) are true positives and 99% (9,900) are true negatives, regardless of testing. 5% of those TNs (9900*5% = 495) register positive, falsely. We aren't given a false-negative rate, so assuming all 100 TPs register as positive, correctly. | + | :Take a population of 10,000 tests. From the premise: 1% (100) are true positives and 99% (9,900) are true negatives, regardless of testing. 5% of those TNs (9900*5% = 495) register positive, falsely. We aren't given a false-negative rate, so assuming all 100 TPs register as positive, correctly. 595+100=595 people showing as positive, but only the 100 TPs actually truly were, which is slightly ''less'' than 17% (100/595 = 16.8ish%) who have an accurate positive test, leaving a whopping value of slightly more than 83% of tested-positive individuals who were ''wrongly'' identified as positive. [[Special:Contributions/162.158.158.105|162.158.158.105]] 18:11, 16 June 2021 (UTC) |
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