Editing Talk:2599: Spacecraft Debris Odds Ratio
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Is this covid commentary? Like how everyone got freaked about the odds for covid to the point where they stopped exercising and shutting everyone inside and degrading their mental health? [[Special:Contributions/172.70.131.122|172.70.131.122]] 18:26, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | Is this covid commentary? Like how everyone got freaked about the odds for covid to the point where they stopped exercising and shutting everyone inside and degrading their mental health? [[Special:Contributions/172.70.131.122|172.70.131.122]] 18:26, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | ||
− | + | ==Odds ratio confusion?== | |
I am very confused by the X axis of this comic, I feel like I must be misunderstanding how this works, but I thought I understood how odds ratios worked. Maybe not. | I am very confused by the X axis of this comic, I feel like I must be misunderstanding how this works, but I thought I understood how odds ratios worked. Maybe not. | ||
The graph "reads" that "In the reference situation, with zero hours spent outside, the odds ratio for head injuries from falling spacecraft debris is 1.0 ± 0." A 1.0 odds ratio means 1.0:1.0, or that either possibility is 50% likely. That is, there's an even chance your head will be injured by spacecraft debris or that it will not, ''if you stay indoors.'' That does not seem like it could be right, so can someone point me to my error? Thanks! [[User:JohnHawkinson|JohnHawkinson]] ([[User talk:JohnHawkinson|talk]]) 09:34, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | The graph "reads" that "In the reference situation, with zero hours spent outside, the odds ratio for head injuries from falling spacecraft debris is 1.0 ± 0." A 1.0 odds ratio means 1.0:1.0, or that either possibility is 50% likely. That is, there's an even chance your head will be injured by spacecraft debris or that it will not, ''if you stay indoors.'' That does not seem like it could be right, so can someone point me to my error? Thanks! [[User:JohnHawkinson|JohnHawkinson]] ([[User talk:JohnHawkinson|talk]]) 09:34, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | ||
:As best I can tell, this is taking odds as a ratio between ''any'' two events. Rather than the usual "success : failure" (or "happens : doesn't happen"), it's "this scenario happens : control scenario happens". By definition, the control scenario is set at 1.0, and something at a ratio of (say) 2.0 is twice as likely to happen. -- [[User:Peregrine|Peregrine]] ([[User talk:Peregrine|talk]]) 10:50, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | :As best I can tell, this is taking odds as a ratio between ''any'' two events. Rather than the usual "success : failure" (or "happens : doesn't happen"), it's "this scenario happens : control scenario happens". By definition, the control scenario is set at 1.0, and something at a ratio of (say) 2.0 is twice as likely to happen. -- [[User:Peregrine|Peregrine]] ([[User talk:Peregrine|talk]]) 10:50, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | ||
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− | + | I definitely think we need to put something explaining what an odds ratio is. But since I feel the need to have it explained, I'm not going to be the one to explain it. --[[User:192·168·0·1|192·168·0·1]] ([[User talk:192·168·0·1|talk]]) 12:46, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | |
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+ | == Per day == | ||
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Looks like the comic has been updated to clarify that the number of hours is per day. I'll leave it to someone more experienced with this website to update it, but in any case it makes the note "It is very difficult to avoid being outside for more than four hours in a total lifetime" moot. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.114.147|172.70.114.147]] 12:31, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | Looks like the comic has been updated to clarify that the number of hours is per day. I'll leave it to someone more experienced with this website to update it, but in any case it makes the note "It is very difficult to avoid being outside for more than four hours in a total lifetime" moot. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.114.147|172.70.114.147]] 12:31, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | ||
:I uploaded the new version that includes "per day" in the y-axis label. But the image size also changed, now the image is the normal _2x size. I'm hoping that will get fixed eventually, like it did for [[2576: Control Group]]. [[User:Orion205|Orion205]] ([[User talk:Orion205|talk]]) 22:42, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | :I uploaded the new version that includes "per day" in the y-axis label. But the image size also changed, now the image is the normal _2x size. I'm hoping that will get fixed eventually, like it did for [[2576: Control Group]]. [[User:Orion205|Orion205]] ([[User talk:Orion205|talk]]) 22:42, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | ||
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+ | == Monte Carlo Tree Searches == | ||
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MCTSs are one of those things that don't seem like they should work but they do <span style="text-shadow:0 0 6px black">[[User:Beanie|<span style="font-size:11pt;color:#dddddd">Beanie</span>]]</span> <sup><span style="text-shadow:0 0 3px #000000">[[User talk:Beanie|<span style="font-size:8pt;color:#dddddd">talk</span>]]</span></sup> 20:55, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | MCTSs are one of those things that don't seem like they should work but they do <span style="text-shadow:0 0 6px black">[[User:Beanie|<span style="font-size:11pt;color:#dddddd">Beanie</span>]]</span> <sup><span style="text-shadow:0 0 3px #000000">[[User talk:Beanie|<span style="font-size:8pt;color:#dddddd">talk</span>]]</span></sup> 20:55, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | ||
:I just did my own Monte Carlo Tree Search and... [https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/2f/Monaco_Monte_Carlo_1.jpg/800px-Monaco_Monte_Carlo_1.jpg there's definitely at least one, jutting up into the bottom/right of that overview]. :-p [[Special:Contributions/172.70.91.36|172.70.91.36]] 22:37, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | :I just did my own Monte Carlo Tree Search and... [https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/2f/Monaco_Monte_Carlo_1.jpg/800px-Monaco_Monte_Carlo_1.jpg there's definitely at least one, jutting up into the bottom/right of that overview]. :-p [[Special:Contributions/172.70.91.36|172.70.91.36]] 22:37, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | ||
+ | == Image scaling off == | ||
− | + | Does anyone else experience a problem with the scaling of the comic image? | |
− | Does anyone else experience a problem with the scaling of the comic image? | ||
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− | + | It is not fitting to the frame, but displays on full size on the web page. | |
+ | It only happens for this comic, not other ones, and i see it both on the main page as the xkcd/2599 page. | ||
− | + | Some mistake for sure, but I have not seen this before. | |
− | + | Screenshot proof: [https://i.imgur.com/sbXbCov.png imgur link] | |
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− | + | [[User:Flekkie|Flekkie]] ([[User talk:Flekkie|talk]]) 22:32, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | |
− | + | :This happened back in [[2576: Control Group]]. It was fixed after about a week. [[User:Orion205|Orion205]] ([[User talk:Orion205|talk]]) 22:42, 29 March 2022 (UTC) | |
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