Editing Talk:2599: Spacecraft Debris Odds Ratio
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I'm wondering how the correlation between time spent outside and chance of getting hit could be anything other than linear. If 1 hour outside gives you X probability, surely 2 hours outside would be 2*X probability. [[User:FishDawg|FishDawg]] ([[User talk:FishDawg|talk]]) 05:37, 7 April 2022 (UTC) | I'm wondering how the correlation between time spent outside and chance of getting hit could be anything other than linear. If 1 hour outside gives you X probability, surely 2 hours outside would be 2*X probability. [[User:FishDawg|FishDawg]] ([[User talk:FishDawg|talk]]) 05:37, 7 April 2022 (UTC) | ||
:Sort of, but probabilities don't exactly behave like that. On that analysis, given enough time outside, the probability would pass 1 and keep on rising. But a probability of 1 is absolute certainty, so probabilities higher than that are meaningless. I believe the comic is consistent with your assumption that the rate is constant -- the probability of getting hit during an hour is the same no matter which hour it is. It seems reasonable to me, too. Then after 1 hour, your probability of remaining unhit is 0.999999999 or whatever. After 2 hours, it's the probability of remaining unhit in the first hour times the probability of remaining unhit in the second hour, 0.999999999^2. After 3 hours, it's 0.999999999^3, and so on. So the probability of *ever* getting hit actually follows an exponential curve. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.245.173|108.162.245.173]] 16:32, 8 April 2022 (UTC) | :Sort of, but probabilities don't exactly behave like that. On that analysis, given enough time outside, the probability would pass 1 and keep on rising. But a probability of 1 is absolute certainty, so probabilities higher than that are meaningless. I believe the comic is consistent with your assumption that the rate is constant -- the probability of getting hit during an hour is the same no matter which hour it is. It seems reasonable to me, too. Then after 1 hour, your probability of remaining unhit is 0.999999999 or whatever. After 2 hours, it's the probability of remaining unhit in the first hour times the probability of remaining unhit in the second hour, 0.999999999^2. After 3 hours, it's 0.999999999^3, and so on. So the probability of *ever* getting hit actually follows an exponential curve. [[Special:Contributions/108.162.245.173|108.162.245.173]] 16:32, 8 April 2022 (UTC) | ||
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