Editing Talk:2652: Proxy Variable
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Might be tangentially related to the alleged Alzheimer's disease drug Aduhelm, the anti-amyloid therapy, that did show some success in proxy variable (biomarker), but no success at all in curing the disease or its symptoms (no efficacy), but which got accepted with a huge amount of controversy by NDA (which disregarded its advisory committee’s recommendation against approving Aduhelm). --[[User:JakubNarebski|JakubNarebski]] ([[User talk:JakubNarebski|talk]]) 07:32, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | Might be tangentially related to the alleged Alzheimer's disease drug Aduhelm, the anti-amyloid therapy, that did show some success in proxy variable (biomarker), but no success at all in curing the disease or its symptoms (no efficacy), but which got accepted with a huge amount of controversy by NDA (which disregarded its advisory committee’s recommendation against approving Aduhelm). --[[User:JakubNarebski|JakubNarebski]] ([[User talk:JakubNarebski|talk]]) 07:32, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | ||
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:::We need to remove 38 gigatons per year, which is only 0.7 milligrams per square centimeter of ocean. Think of the mean depth of the ocean: that square centimeter is very tall. From that perspective, isn't this an easy biological solution? That's only 0.5 micrograms per minute, from the full depth of each square centimeter of ocean, right? [[Special:Contributions/172.70.214.43|172.70.214.43]] 20:47, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | :::We need to remove 38 gigatons per year, which is only 0.7 milligrams per square centimeter of ocean. Think of the mean depth of the ocean: that square centimeter is very tall. From that perspective, isn't this an easy biological solution? That's only 0.5 micrograms per minute, from the full depth of each square centimeter of ocean, right? [[Special:Contributions/172.70.214.43|172.70.214.43]] 20:47, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | ||
::::I'm not sure what is the "this" you talk about but it sounds you are only storing carbon, not removing it. BTW, one of best way to store carbon is to make more highways. -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 23:07, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | ::::I'm not sure what is the "this" you talk about but it sounds you are only storing carbon, not removing it. BTW, one of best way to store carbon is to make more highways. -- [[User:Hkmaly|Hkmaly]] ([[User talk:Hkmaly|talk]]) 23:07, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | ||
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:Everyone thinks this is about pharmacology, and maybe it is. But I've been taking economics courses this semester, so that's what I think of. "We can't measure this factor directly, so we made up a formula that should let us calculate it (if we've measured all relevant factors correctly and all our other assumptions and theories are valid)" is a pretty common thing in that field. [[User:GreatWyrmGold|GreatWyrmGold]] ([[User talk:GreatWyrmGold|talk]]) 18:14, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | :Everyone thinks this is about pharmacology, and maybe it is. But I've been taking economics courses this semester, so that's what I think of. "We can't measure this factor directly, so we made up a formula that should let us calculate it (if we've measured all relevant factors correctly and all our other assumptions and theories are valid)" is a pretty common thing in that field. [[User:GreatWyrmGold|GreatWyrmGold]] ([[User talk:GreatWyrmGold|talk]]) 18:14, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | ||
:: What's the best example, using GDP as a proxy for development? Or something current like using the money supply as a proxy for inflation? [[Special:Contributions/172.70.214.95|172.70.214.95]] 20:19, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | :: What's the best example, using GDP as a proxy for development? Or something current like using the money supply as a proxy for inflation? [[Special:Contributions/172.70.214.95|172.70.214.95]] 20:19, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | ||
− | + | == this dude keeps spamming == | |
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Sorry for the mild crassness, especially as a new user, but some Nazi f*ck is vandalizing the page. May someone please ban them?{{unsigned ip|172.71.26.59|03:49, 30 July 2022}} | Sorry for the mild crassness, especially as a new user, but some Nazi f*ck is vandalizing the page. May someone please ban them?{{unsigned ip|172.71.26.59|03:49, 30 July 2022}} | ||
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:::: I've been on far more abused online resources, both web (early days, long before CAPTCHA technology) and elsewhere (having seen how Usenet was both before and after The Eternal September) and the interference here is extraordinarily given the generally open nature of the submission process. | :::: I've been on far more abused online resources, both web (early days, long before CAPTCHA technology) and elsewhere (having seen how Usenet was both before and after The Eternal September) and the interference here is extraordinarily given the generally open nature of the submission process. | ||
:::: PS. Please do sign your posts ( with <code><nowiki>~~~~</nowiki></code> ), if only for the timestamp that makes the to and fro of conversations more understandable... [[Special:Contributions/162.158.34.221|162.158.34.221]] 19:01, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | :::: PS. Please do sign your posts ( with <code><nowiki>~~~~</nowiki></code> ), if only for the timestamp that makes the to and fro of conversations more understandable... [[Special:Contributions/162.158.34.221|162.158.34.221]] 19:01, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | ||
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:The rant gets replaced within two minutes of each revert. Presumably it's done by bot. We need a mod to take action. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.130.217|172.70.130.217]] 05:15, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | :The rant gets replaced within two minutes of each revert. Presumably it's done by bot. We need a mod to take action. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.130.217|172.70.130.217]] 05:15, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | ||
Article has been restored but some idiots keep spamming the page with random things. pls do something mods {{unsigned ip|172.70.147.47|03:59, 30 July 2022}} | Article has been restored but some idiots keep spamming the page with random things. pls do something mods {{unsigned ip|172.70.147.47|03:59, 30 July 2022}} | ||
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::But why here? Like, this is such a weird place to try and be heard, I'm sure even Reddit posts would have more visibility than edits to a webcomic wiki. [[User:NErDysprosium|NErDysprosium]] ([[User talk:NErDysprosium|talk]]) 06:06, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | ::But why here? Like, this is such a weird place to try and be heard, I'm sure even Reddit posts would have more visibility than edits to a webcomic wiki. [[User:NErDysprosium|NErDysprosium]] ([[User talk:NErDysprosium|talk]]) 06:06, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | ||
::: Don't underestimate the importance of the can't-get-jokes demographic for PSYOP recruitment. The invasion of Panama might not even have occurred if it weren't for people distracted by cartoons. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.33.185|172.69.33.185]] 17:16, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | ::: Don't underestimate the importance of the can't-get-jokes demographic for PSYOP recruitment. The invasion of Panama might not even have occurred if it weren't for people distracted by cartoons. [[Special:Contributions/172.69.33.185|172.69.33.185]] 17:16, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | ||
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[https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=2652:_Proxy_Variable&diff=291433&oldid=291400 The protected version has much less text than the last non-vandalized version.] [[Special:Contributions/172.70.211.90|172.70.211.90]] 20:02, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | [https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=2652:_Proxy_Variable&diff=291433&oldid=291400 The protected version has much less text than the last non-vandalized version.] [[Special:Contributions/172.70.211.90|172.70.211.90]] 20:02, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | ||
: Re "The history of pharmaceutical research is largely a graveyard of failed proxy hypotheses." True, but someone should add that is the reason for experiment registration regulations. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.210.145|172.70.210.145]] 20:17, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | : Re "The history of pharmaceutical research is largely a graveyard of failed proxy hypotheses." True, but someone should add that is the reason for experiment registration regulations. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.210.145|172.70.210.145]] 20:17, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | ||
:: I'm placing that version here, in hopes that it can be edited as a proxy for the protected version: [[Special:Contributions/172.69.33.229|172.69.33.229]] 20:28, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | :: I'm placing that version here, in hopes that it can be edited as a proxy for the protected version: [[Special:Contributions/172.69.33.229|172.69.33.229]] 20:28, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | ||
− | {{cot| | + | {{cot|Last non-vandalized version of the explanation, as further edited}} |
− | [ | + | In this comic, [[Hairy]] is discussing use of a proxy variable with [[Cueball]]. In statistics, a {{w|proxy variable}} is used as a stand-in for one or more other variables that are difficult to measure. In order to be useful as such, proxy variables must be correlated with what they are intended to represent. For example, a drug might aim to reduce deaths from a slow-acting disease. But testing if it reduces deaths might take many years, so researchers might test for a proxy outcome instead, like whether it results in loss of bone density or damage to cells. Physicians use blood pressure as one of many proxies for cardiovascular health. |
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+ | Proxy variables are of interest to non-scientists as they provide a way to indirectly monitor or improve the complex systems that affect their lives. For example, people use local temperature as a rough experiential proxy for the severity of global warming. Economists might mistake GDP for productive or useful development, or mistake the size of the {{w|money supply}} for {{w|price inflation}}. While correlated, the causation implied by such assumptions is very much in doubt, because the GDP increase of demolishing a hospital might conflict with the widespread understanding of development, and while the money supply size is a cause of inflation, there are many other causes. | ||
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+ | Hairy is dismissing the question of whether they are studying the right variable as too expensive to answer. This is deeply ironic and thus satirical, because good {{w|experiment design}} requires sufficient attention to the robustness of all the involved parts of an experiment, even if the expense may be prohibitive. | ||
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+ | Choosing the wrong proxy variable might make the research misleading, irrelevant, or as the title text suggests, answer the wrong question. Separating correlation from {{w|Causality|causation}} is necessary when interpreting proxy variable results to make sure the question they answer is known. Mere correlation instead of {{w|Causal analysis|authentic causation}} yields weaker results. {{w|Exploratory causal analysis}} can assist with finding useful proxy variables, but is difficult for the layperson to interpret and can be misleading, because even if performed correctly, a {{w|combinatorial explosion}} of possible proxy variables can make traditional {{w|statistical significance}} analysis fail, requiring {{w|F-score}}s or similar measures. The history of pharmaceutical research is largely a graveyard of failed proxy hypotheses; that is one of the reasons for [https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/manage-recs/fdaaa experiment registration regulations.] | ||
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+ | The title text's notion of having an answer without knowing the actual question could also be be a reference to the classic comedy science fiction novel {{w|The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy|The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy}}, where in one scene Earth turns out to be a supercomputer built for the purpose of figuring out the question for the answer "42." | ||
{{cob}} | {{cob}} | ||
:That such improvements are withheld from the main public view must feel like a victory for the vandal. Can autoconfimed users promote it? [[Special:Contributions/172.70.210.145|172.70.210.145]] 23:08, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | :That such improvements are withheld from the main public view must feel like a victory for the vandal. Can autoconfimed users promote it? [[Special:Contributions/172.70.210.145|172.70.210.145]] 23:08, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | ||
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Is anyone going to comment that all of us IP editors are listed by our CDN proxy address? [[Special:Contributions/172.69.33.123|172.69.33.123]] 20:44, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | Is anyone going to comment that all of us IP editors are listed by our CDN proxy address? [[Special:Contributions/172.69.33.123|172.69.33.123]] 20:44, 30 July 2022 (UTC) |