Editing Talk:2652: Proxy Variable
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:::::Where on Earth would you ever want to build 38 gigatons of highways per year? By "this" I mean genetically modified {{w|phytoplankton}}; in particular modified by changes to {{w|carbonic anhydrase}} expression. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.214.81|172.70.214.81]] 23:13, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | :::::Where on Earth would you ever want to build 38 gigatons of highways per year? By "this" I mean genetically modified {{w|phytoplankton}}; in particular modified by changes to {{w|carbonic anhydrase}} expression. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.214.81|172.70.214.81]] 23:13, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | ||
::::::Are there enough dissolved minerals in the ocean for that volume, assuming {{w|diatom}}s intended to sink to the seabed? [[Special:Contributions/172.70.211.134|172.70.211.134]] 09:35, 31 July 2022 (UTC) | ::::::Are there enough dissolved minerals in the ocean for that volume, assuming {{w|diatom}}s intended to sink to the seabed? [[Special:Contributions/172.70.211.134|172.70.211.134]] 09:35, 31 July 2022 (UTC) | ||
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:Everyone thinks this is about pharmacology, and maybe it is. But I've been taking economics courses this semester, so that's what I think of. "We can't measure this factor directly, so we made up a formula that should let us calculate it (if we've measured all relevant factors correctly and all our other assumptions and theories are valid)" is a pretty common thing in that field. [[User:GreatWyrmGold|GreatWyrmGold]] ([[User talk:GreatWyrmGold|talk]]) 18:14, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | :Everyone thinks this is about pharmacology, and maybe it is. But I've been taking economics courses this semester, so that's what I think of. "We can't measure this factor directly, so we made up a formula that should let us calculate it (if we've measured all relevant factors correctly and all our other assumptions and theories are valid)" is a pretty common thing in that field. [[User:GreatWyrmGold|GreatWyrmGold]] ([[User talk:GreatWyrmGold|talk]]) 18:14, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | ||
:: What's the best example, using GDP as a proxy for development? Or something current like using the money supply as a proxy for inflation? [[Special:Contributions/172.70.214.95|172.70.214.95]] 20:19, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | :: What's the best example, using GDP as a proxy for development? Or something current like using the money supply as a proxy for inflation? [[Special:Contributions/172.70.214.95|172.70.214.95]] 20:19, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | ||
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::Not sure where the paragraph break should be. If two paragraphs, try appending a subsection; if one, try the collapse box before the first title text paragraph. If people could contribute other interesting examples of proxies for carbon removal (I remember reading about a desalination process?) that would be awesome. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.214.43|172.70.214.43]] 14:53, 31 July 2022 (UTC) | ::Not sure where the paragraph break should be. If two paragraphs, try appending a subsection; if one, try the collapse box before the first title text paragraph. If people could contribute other interesting examples of proxies for carbon removal (I remember reading about a desalination process?) that would be awesome. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.214.43|172.70.214.43]] 14:53, 31 July 2022 (UTC) | ||
::: I'm not sure if you can use proportion of renewables, because of Jevons paradox. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.211.90|172.70.211.90]] 14:59, 31 July 2022 (UTC) | ::: I'm not sure if you can use proportion of renewables, because of Jevons paradox. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.211.90|172.70.211.90]] 14:59, 31 July 2022 (UTC) | ||
− | ::: | + | ::: Desalination doesn't really work here, but we could do {{w|Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis}} application rate as a proxy for {{w|mosquito abatement}} to carry the ecology theme. [[Special:Contributions/172.70.207.8|172.70.207.8]] 15:08, 31 July 2022 (UTC) |
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:: I'm placing that version here, in hopes that it can be edited as a proxy for the protected version: [[Special:Contributions/172.69.33.229|172.69.33.229]] 20:28, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | :: I'm placing that version here, in hopes that it can be edited as a proxy for the protected version: [[Special:Contributions/172.69.33.229|172.69.33.229]] 20:28, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | ||
{{cot|Mostly approved (see above) non-vandalized version of the explanation, as further edited}} | {{cot|Mostly approved (see above) non-vandalized version of the explanation, as further edited}} | ||
− | [ | + | In this comic, [[Hairy]] is discussing use of a proxy variable with [[Cueball]]. In statistics, a {{w|proxy variable}} is used as a stand-in for one or more other variables that are difficult to measure. In order to be useful as such, proxy variables must be correlated with what they are intended to represent. For example, a drug might aim to reduce deaths from a slow-acting disease. But testing if it reduces deaths might take many years, so researchers might test for a proxy outcome instead, like whether it results in loss of bone density or damage to cells. Physicians use blood pressure as one of many proxies for cardiovascular health. |
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+ | Proxy variables are of interest to non-scientists as they provide a way to indirectly monitor or improve the complex systems that affect their lives. For example, people use local temperature as a rough experiential proxy for the severity of global warming. Economists might mistake GDP for productive or useful development, or mistake the size of the {{w|money supply}} for {{w|price inflation}}. While correlated, the causation implied by such assumptions is very much in doubt, because the GDP increase of demolishing a hospital might conflict with the widespread understanding of development, and while the money supply size is a cause of inflation, there are many other causes. | ||
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+ | Hairy is dismissing the question of whether they are studying the right variable as too expensive to answer. This is deeply ironic and thus satirical, because good {{w|experiment design}} requires sufficient attention to the robustness of all the involved parts of an experiment, even if the expense may be prohibitive. This comic might be referring to the recent discovery of [https://www.science.org/content/article/potential-fabrication-research-images-threatens-key-theory-alzheimers-disease nearly two decades] of fraudulent {{w|Alzheimer's disease}} research based on a mistaken proxy hypothesis. | ||
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+ | Choosing the wrong proxy variable might make the research misleading, irrelevant, or as the title text suggests, answer the wrong question. Separating correlation from {{w|Causality|causation}} is necessary when interpreting proxy variable results to make sure the question they answer is known. Mere correlation instead of {{w|Causal analysis|authentic causation}} yields weaker results. {{w|Exploratory causal analysis}} can assist with finding useful proxy variables, but is difficult for the layperson to interpret and can be misleading, because even if performed correctly, a {{w|combinatorial explosion}} of possible proxy variables can make traditional {{w|statistical significance}} analysis fail, requiring {{w|F-score}}s or similar measures. The history of pharmaceutical research is largely a graveyard of failed proxy hypotheses; that is one of the reasons for [https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/manage-recs/fdaaa experiment registration regulations.] | ||
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+ | The title text's notion of having an answer without knowing the actual question could also be be a reference to the classic comedy science fiction novel {{w|The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy|The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy}}, where in one scene Earth turns out to be a supercomputer built for the purpose of figuring out the question for the answer "42." | ||
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:That such improvements are withheld from the main public view must feel like a victory for the vandal. Can autoconfimed users promote it? [[Special:Contributions/172.70.210.145|172.70.210.145]] 23:08, 30 July 2022 (UTC) | :That such improvements are withheld from the main public view must feel like a victory for the vandal. Can autoconfimed users promote it? [[Special:Contributions/172.70.210.145|172.70.210.145]] 23:08, 30 July 2022 (UTC) |