Editing Talk:882: Significant

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This kind of error is why you use ANOVA.
 
This kind of error is why you use ANOVA.
 
[[Special:Contributions/162.158.63.238|162.158.63.238]] 20:21, 29 October 2018 (UTC)
 
[[Special:Contributions/162.158.63.238|162.158.63.238]] 20:21, 29 October 2018 (UTC)
βˆ’
 
βˆ’
Want to reiterate that using "95% confidence" for statistical significance means having a threshold of <.05 for the p-value, and the p-value is the probability noise alone would have generated a change this big or bigger.  If all you ran all day long were a/a tests (randomly assign people to two groups but give them the exact same experience) then 5% of your tests would be stat sig for any given metric.  However, the chance of at least one false positive over 20 tests is only 64% (1-.95^20), not 100%.  But of course, you also might get MORE than 1 false positive in 20 experiments, so the expected value for the NUMBER of false positives after 20 experiments IS 1.  If that hurt your brain, welcome to probability!
 

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