Editing 2379: Probability Comparisons

{{comic
| number    = 2379
| date      = October 30, 2020
| title     = Probability Comparisons
| image     = probability comparisons new.png
| titletext = Call me, MAYBE.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by LEBRON JAMES THROWING M&Ms AT A KEYBOARD. The table for the explanations of the chances isn't complete, and nor is the transcript. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This is a list of probabilities for different events. There are numerous recurring themes, of which the most common are free throws (13 entries), birthdays (12), dice (12, split about evenly between d6 and d20 types), M&M candies (11), playing cards (9), NBA basketball mid-game victory predictions (9), Scrabble tiles (7), coins (7), white Christmases (7), and the NBA players Stephen Curry and LeBron James (7 each). 

Themes are variously repeated and combined, for humorous effect. For instance, there are entries for both the probability that St. Louis will have a white Christmas (21%) and that it will not (79%). Also given is the 40% probability that a random Scrabble tile will contain a letter from the name "Steph Curry". 

There are 80 items in the list, the last two of which devolve into absurdity - perhaps from the stress of preparing the other 78 entries.

The list may be an attempt to better understand probabilistic election forecasts for the {{w|2020 United States presidential election}} which was less than a week away at the time this comic was published, and had also been aluded to in [[2370: Prediction]] and [[2371: Election Screen Time]]. Statistician and psephologist {{w|Nate Silver}} is referenced in one of the list items.

The probabilities are calculated from [https://xkcd.com/2379/sources/ these sources], as mentioned in the bottom left corner.

{| class="wikitable sortable"
! Odds
! Text
! Explanation
|-
| 0.01%
| You guess the last four digits of someone's {{w|Social Security Number}} on the first try
| There are 10 digits in a Social Security Number. (1/10)<sup>4</sup> = 0.0001, or 0.01%
|-
| 0.1%
| Three randomly chosen people are all left-handed
| The chances of being left handed is about 10%, and 10%<sup>3</sup> = 0.1%.
|-
| rowspan="2" | 0.2%
| You draw 2 random {{w|Scrabble}} tiles and get M and M
|
|-
| You draw 3 random {{w|M&Ms}} and they're all red
| There are 3 red, 5 green, and 8 blue M&Ms. 3/16 × 2/15 × 1/14 ≈ 0.17%
|-
| 0.3%
| You guess someone's birthday in one try.
| 1/365 ≈ 0.27%.
|-
| rowspan="2" | 0.5%
| An {{w|NBA}} team down by 30 at halftime wins
|
|-
| You get 4 M&Ms and they're all brown or yellow
|
|-
| rowspan="2" | 1%
| {{w|Steph Curry}} gets two free throws and misses both
|
|-
|{{w|LeBron James}} guesses your birthday, if each guess costs one free throw and he loses if he misses
|
|-
| rowspan="2" | 1.5%
| You get two M&Ms and they're both red
|
|-
| You share a birthday with a {{w|Backstreet Boys|Backstreet Boy}}
|
|-
| 2%
| You guess someone's card on the first try
| There are 52 cards in a normal deck of cards (excluding jokers), which is approximately 0.019 (2%).
|-
| rowspan="2"| 3%
| You guess 5 coin tosses and get them all right
|
|-
| Steph Curry wins that birthday free throw game
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 4%
| You sweep a 3-game {{w|rock paper scissors}} series

|
|-
| {{w|Portland, Oregon}} has a {{w|White Christmas (weather)|white Christmas}}
|
|-
| You share a birthday with two {{w|US Senator}}s
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 5%
| An NBA team down 20 at halftime wins
|
|-
| You roll a natural 20
There are twenty sides to a d20; 1/20 = 0.5 = 5%
|
|-
| 6%
| You correctly guess someone's card given 3 tries
| Assuming you guess three different cards, 3/52 = 0.05769 ~ 6%
|
|-
| 7%
| LeBron James gets two free throws and misses both
|
|-
| 8%
| You correctly guess someone's card given 4 tries
| Assuming you guess four different cards, 4/52 = 0.0769 ~ 8%
|
|-
| 9%
| Steph Curry misses a free throw
|
|-
| rowspan="2"|10%
| You draw 5 cards and get the Ace of Spades
| There are 52 cards in a normal deck of cards (excluding jokers), and the Ace of Spades is one of them. The chances of getting the card is 1 - 51/52 * 50/51 * 49/50 * 48/49 * 47/48 which is approximately 0.096, which rounds to the given 10%. <!-- make into math format -->
|-
| There's a {{w|Moment magnitude scale|magnitude}} 8+ earthquake in the next month
|
|-
| 11%
| You sweep a 2-game rock paper scissors series
| You have a 1/3 chance of winning the first comparison, and a 1/3 chance of winning the second. (1/3) * (1/3) = 1/9 ~ 0.11 = 11% 
|
|-
| rowspan="3"|12%
| A randomly-chosen American lives in {{w|California}}
|
|-
| You correctly guess someone's card given 6 tries
|
|-
| You share a birthday with a {{w|US President}}
|
|-
| rowspan="3"|13%
| A {{w|Dice#Polyhedral_dice|d6}} beats a {{w|Dice#Polyhedral_dice|d20}}
|
|-
| An NBA team down 10 going into the 4th quarter wins
|
|-
| You pull one M&M from a bag and it's red
|
|-
| 14%
| A randomly drawn scrabble tile beats a D6 die roll
|
|-
| 15%
| You roll a D20 and get at least 18
| 
|-
| 16%
| Steph Curry gets two free throws but makes only one
| 
|-
| 17%
| You roll a D6 die and get a 6
|
|-
| 18%
|
|
|-
| 19%
|
|
|-
| 20%
|
|
|-
| 21%
|
|
|-
| 22%
|
|
|-
| 23%
|
|
|-
| 24%
|
|
|-
| 25%
|
|
|-
| 26%
|
|
|-
| 27%
|
|
<!-- TODO many entries missing -->
|-
| 66%
| A randomly chosen movie from the main Lord of the Rings trilogy has “of the” in the title twice
| The titles are:
* ''The Lord '''of the''' Rings: The Fellowship '''of the''' Ring''
* ''The Lord '''of the''' Rings: The Two Towers''
* ''The Lord '''of the''' Rings: The Return '''of the''' King''
All of them have “of the” at least once, in “The Lord of the Rings”, but only the first and third have it twice, and 2/3 ≈ 66%.
<!-- TODO many entries missing -->
|-
| 90%
| Someone fails to guess your card given 5 tries
| Assuming they guess five different cards, there are 47 unguessed cards left. 47/52 = 0.90385 ~ 90% 
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 91%
| You incorrectly guess that someone was born in August
|
|-
| Steph Curry makes a free throw
|
|-
| 92%
| You guess someone's birth month at random and are wrong
|
|-
| 93%
| Lebron James makes a free throw given two tries
|
|-
| 94%
| Someone fails to guess your card given 3 tries
|
|-
| 95%
| An NBA team wins when they're up 20 at halftime
|
|-
| 96%
| Someone fails to guess your card given 2 tries
|
|-
| 97%
| You try to guess 5 coin tosses and fail
|
|-
| 98%
| You incorrectly guess someone's birthday is this week
|
|-
| 98.5%
| An NBA team up 15 points with 8 minutes left wins
|
|-
| 99%
| Steph Curry makes a free throw given two tries
|
|-
| 99.5%
| An NBA team that's up by 30 points at halftime wins
|
|-
| 99.7%
| You guess someone's birthday at random and are wrong
|
|-
| 99.8%
| There's not a {{w|Moment magnitude scale|magnitude}} 8 quake in {{w|California}} next year
|
|-
| 99.9%
| A random group of three people contains a right-hander
|
|-
| 99.99%
| You incorrectly guess the last four digits of someone's social security number
|
|-
| 99.9999999999999995%
| You pick up a phone, dial a random 10-digit number, and say 'Hello Barack Obama, there's just been a {{w|Moment magnitude scale|magnitude}} 8 earthquake in {{w|California}}!" and are wrong
|
|-
| 0.00000001%
| You add "Hang on, this is big — I'm going to loop in Carly Rae Jepsen", dial another random 10-digit number, and she picks up
|
|}

The title text refers to the song {{w|Call Me Maybe}} by Carly Rae Jepsen (cited twice in the list). "MAYBE" is emphasized perhaps because the probability of getting her phone number correct, as in the last item in the list, is very low. The capitalization could also be a reference to Scrabble tiles as was previously mentioned in association with Carly Rae Jepsen.

==Trivia==
In the original comic, "outside" in the 88% probability section is spelled incorrectly as "outide". In addition, the 39% section had "two free throw" instead of "throws".

Pace previous comment, the 67% probability of rolling at least a 3 with a D6 is correct. "At least a 3" means a 3, 4, 5, or 6.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

'''PROBABILITY COMPARISONS'''

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Comics featuring real people]]