Editing 2379: Probability Comparisons

{{comic
| number    = 2379
| date      = October 30, 2020
| title     = Probability Comparisons
| image     = probability comparisons new.png
| titletext = Call me, MAYBE.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by LEBRON JAMES THROWING M&Ms AT A KEYBOARD. The table for the explanations of the chances isn't complete, nor is the transcript. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

This is a list of probabilities for different events. There are numerous recurring themes, of which the most common are free throws (13 entries), birthdays (12), dice (12, split about evenly between d6 and d20 types), M&M candies (11), playing cards (9), NBA basketball mid-game victory predictions (9), Scrabble tiles (7), coins (7), white Christmases (7), and the NBA players Stephen Curry and LeBron James (7 each). 

Themes are variously repeated and combined, for humorous effect. For instance, there are entries for both the probability that St. Louis will have a white Christmas (21%) and that it will not (79%). Also given is the 40% probability that a random Scrabble tile will contain a letter from the name "Steph Curry". 

There are 80 items in the list, the last two of which devolve into absurdity - perhaps from the stress of preparing the other 78 entries.

The list may be an attempt to better understand probabilistic election forecasts for the {{w|2020 United States presidential election}} which was less than a week away at the time this comic was published, and had also been aluded to in [[2370: Prediction]] and [[2371: Election Screen Time]]. Statistician and psephologist {{w|Nate Silver}} is referenced in one of the list items. On the date this cartoon was published, Nate Silver's website FiveThirtyEight.com was publishing forecast probabilities of Donald Trump and Joe Biden winning the US Presidential election. [[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/]]. On 31 October 2020, the forecast described the chances of Donald Trump winning as "roughly the same as the chance that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. It does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)" A day previously, when the chances were 12%, the website had also described Trump's chances of winning as "slightly less than a six sided die rolling a 1".

The probabilities are calculated from [https://xkcd.com/2379/sources/ these sources], as mentioned in the bottom left corner.

The title text refers to the song {{w|Call Me Maybe}} by Carly Rae Jepsen (cited twice in the list). "MAYBE" is emphasized perhaps because the probability of getting her phone number correct, as in the last item in the list, is very low. The capitalization could also be a reference to Scrabble tiles as was previously mentioned in association with Carly Rae Jepsen.

==Table==
{| class="wikitable sortable"
! Odds
! Text
! Explanation
|-
| 0.01%
| You guess the last four digits of someone's {{w|Social Security Number}} on the first try
| There are 10 digits in a Social Security Number, but the last four are commonly used as an identity verification factor. (1/10)<sup>4</sup> = 0.0001, or 0.01%
|-
| 0.1%
| Three randomly chosen people are all left-handed
| The chances of being left handed is about 10%, and 10%<sup>3</sup> = 0.1%.
|-
| rowspan="2" | 0.2%
| You draw 2 random {{w|Scrabble}} tiles and get M and M
| This appears to be an error. Under standard English {{w|Scrabble letter distribution}} there are 100 tiles of which 2 are M. This would give a probability of randomly drawing M and M as 2/100 × 1/99 ≈ 0.02%. However, other language editions of Scrabble have different letter distributions, some of which could allow this to be true.
|-
| You draw 3 random {{w|M&Ms}} and they're all red
| According to Randall's source, the proportion of reds is 13%.  0.13^3 ≈ 0.22%.
|-
| 0.3%
| You guess someone's birthday in one try.
| 1/365 ≈ 0.27%.
|-
| rowspan="2" | 0.5%
| An {{w|NBA}} team down by 30 at halftime wins
|
|-
| You get 4 M&Ms and they're all brown or yellow
| Depending on the source of one's M&Ms in the U.S., the proportion of them that is brown or yellow is either 0.25 or 0.259 .  0.25^4≈ 0.39%; 0.259^4 ≈ 0.45% .
|-
| rowspan="2" | 1%
| {{w|Steph Curry}} gets two free throws and misses both
| Curry is a 91% career free throw shooter, so the percentage of missing 1 FT is about 9%. The chance of missing 2 FTs is about 0.8% ≈ 1%.
|-
|{{w|LeBron James}} guesses your birthday, if each guess costs one free throw and he loses if he misses
|
|-
| rowspan="2" | 1.5%
| You get two M&Ms and they're both red
| According to Randall's sources, the probability of a red M&M is about 13%, so the probability of 2 M&Ms being red is (13%)^2 ≈ 1.69%. 
|-
| You share a birthday with a {{w|Backstreet Boys|Backstreet Boy}}
|Each of the five Backstreet Boys has a different birthday, so the odds that you share a birthday with one is 5/365.25 ≈ 1.3% .
|-
| 2%
| You guess someone's card on the first try
| There are 52 cards in a normal deck of cards (excluding jokers), so the probability is 1/52, which is approximately 0.019 (2%).
|-
| rowspan="2"| 3%
| You guess 5 coin tosses and get them all right
| The chance of correctly predicting a coin toss is 0.5. The chance of predicting 5 in a row is 0.5^5, or 3.125%.
|-
| Steph Curry wins that birthday free throw game
|
|-
| rowspan="3"| 4%
| You sweep a 3-game {{w|rock paper scissors}} series
| Picking randomly, you have a 1 in 3 chance of beating an opponent on the first try. (1/3)<sup>3</sup> = 1/27 ≈ 4% .
|-
| {{w|Portland, Oregon}} has a {{w|White Christmas (weather)|white Christmas}}
| According to Randall's source (from the ''Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society''), the probability of snow cover in Portland is 4%.
|-
| You share a birthday with two {{w|US Senator}}s
| At the time this comic was published, 9 days were birthdays for more than one Senator.<ref>Rand Paul (R-KY) and John Thune (R-SD) were both born January 7.<br>
Patrick Leahy (D-VT) and Angus King (I-MN) were both born March 31.<br>
Jim Risch (R-ID), Ron Wyden (D-OR) and David Vitter (R-LA) were all born May 3.<br>
Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) were both born June 22.<br>
Bob Corker (R-TN) and Joe Manchin (D-WV) were both born August 24. <br>
Bill Nelson (D-FL) and Joe Donnelly (D-IA) were both born September 29. <br>
Mike Rounds (R-SD) and Jeff Merkley (D-OR) were both born October 24. <br>
Pat Toomey (R-PA) and Jim Inhofe (R-OK) were both born November 17. <br>
John Boozman (R-AR) and David Perdue (R-GA) were both born December 10.</ref>
|-
| rowspan="2"| 5%
| An NBA team down 20 at halftime wins
|
|-
| You roll a natural 20
| A natural 20 indicates a critical hit in the {{w|Dungeons & Dragons}} role playing game. "Natural" means that it is the number showing when rolling a d20 (a 20-sided die), as opposed to an overall total of 20 when counting the die roll plus modifiers. There are twenty sides to a d20 die. 1/20 = 0.05 = 5%
|-
| 6%
| You correctly guess someone's card given 3 tries
| Picking a random card within 3 times gives 1 - (51/52)(50/51)(49/50) ≈ 6% .
|-
| 7%
| LeBron James gets two free throws and misses both
| James' career FT percentage is 73%, so the probability of a miss is 27%. The probability of 2 misses is (27%)^2, which is about 7%.
|-
| 8%
| You correctly guess someone's card given 4 tries
| Assuming you guess four different cards, 4/52 = 0.0769 ≈ 8% .
|-
| 9%
| Steph Curry misses a free throw
| Curry's career free throw percentage is 91%, so the probability of a miss is 9%.
|-
| rowspan="2"|10%
| You draw 5 cards and get the Ace of Spades
| There are 52 cards in a normal deck of cards (excluding jokers), and the Ace of Spades is one of them. The chances of getting the card is 1 - 51/52 * 50/51 * 49/50 * 48/49 * 47/48 which is approximately 0.096, which rounds to the given 10%. <!-- make into math format -->
|-
| There's a {{w|Moment magnitude scale|magnitude}} 8+ earthquake in the next month
|
|-
| 11%
| You sweep a 2-game rock paper scissors series
| You have a 1/3 chance of winning the first comparison, and a 1/3 chance of winning the second. (1/3) * (1/3) = 1/9 ~ 0.11 = 11% .
|
|-
| rowspan="3"|12%
| A randomly-chosen American lives in {{w|California}}
| California is the most populous state in the US. Out of the approximately 328.2 million Americans (as of 2019), 39.51 million live in California. This means that a randomly chosen American has about a 39.51/328.2 ≈ 10.33% of being in California. Due to population change and rounding based on different sources, this could be pushed to 12%.
|
|-
| You correctly guess someone's card given 6 tries
|
|-
| You share a birthday with a {{w|US President}}
| Presidents {{w|James Polk}} and {{w|Warren Harding}} share a birthday, and are the only presidents so far (in 2020) to do so. Additionally, {{w|Grover Cleveland}} served two non-consecutive terms and is counted twice (as the 22nd and 24th presidents). He therefore shares a birthday with himself. With 43 distinct birthdays, the odds of sharing a birthday are 43/365 ≈ 12%.
|-
| rowspan="3"|13%
| A {{w|Dice#Polyhedral_dice|d6}} beats a {{w|Dice#Polyhedral_dice|d20}}
| The odds of a d6 beating a d20 are (0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5)/(120) = 0.125 ≈ 13% .
|-
| An NBA team down 10 going into the 4th quarter wins
|
|-
| You pull one M&M from a bag and it's red
| According to Randall's source, the probability of a red M&M is 13%.
|-
| 14%
| A randomly drawn scrabble tile beats a D6 die roll
| {{w|Scrabble}} is a game in which you place lettered tiles to form words. Most of the scores per letter are 1, making it rare to beat a d6. The odds are (70/100)(0) + (7/100)(1/6) + (8/100)(2/6) + (10/100)(3/6) + (1/100)(4/6) + (4/100)(6/6) ≈ 14%.
|-
| 15%
| You roll a D20 and get at least 18
| The set of "at least 18" on a d20 is 18, 19, and 20. The odds of rolling one of these is 3/20 = 15% .
|-
| 16%
| Steph Curry gets two free throws but makes only one
| 
|-
| 17%
| You roll a D6 die and get a 6
| The odds are 1/6 ≈ 17% .
|-
| 18%
| A D6 beats or ties a D20
| The odds are (1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6)/(120) ≈ 18% .
|-
| 19%
| At least one person in a random pair is left-handed
| The chances of being left handed is about 10%, so the probability of both people in the pair not being left-handed is 0.9<sup>2</sup>=0.81, and 1-0.81=0.19.
|-
| 20%
| You get a dozen M&Ms and none of them are brown
| 
|-
| 21%
| {{w|St. Louis}} has a white Christmas
| According to Randall's source, the probability of snow cover in St. Louis is 21%.
|-
| 22%
| An NBA team wins when they're down 10 at halftime
|
|-
| rowspan="2"| 23%
| You get an M&M and it's blue
| According to Randall's source, the "test probability" of a blue M&M is 24%. 
|-
| You share a birthday with a US senator
|
|-
| 24%
| You correctly guess that someone was born in the winter
| The winter lasts ~24% of the year, so ~24% of birthdays are in the winter.
|-
| rowspan="2"| 25%
| You correctly guess that someone was born in the fall
| The fall lasts ~25% of the year, so ~25% of birthdays are in the fall. This statement would also have been true for spring.
|-
| You roll two plain M&Ms and get M and M.
| An M&M can land on one of two sides, one with an M and one without. The odds of "rolling" two Ms is 1/4 = 25%. The term "rolling" is used jokingly in reference to the d6s and d20s above, suggesting that an M&M is a standard d2; this becomes especially true once you consider that a more accurate reference would have been two a coin, not a die.
|-
| 26%
| You correctly guess someone was born in the summer
| The summer lasts ~26% of the year, so ~26% of birthdays are in the summer.
|-
| 27%
| LeBron James misses a free throw
| James' career FT percentage is 73%, so the probability of missing is 27%. 
|-
| 32%
| {{w|Pittsburgh}} has a white Christmas
| According to Randall's source, the probability of snow cover in Pittsburgh is 32%.
|-
| rowspan="3"| 33%
| A randomly chosen Star Wars movie (Episodes I-IX) has "of the" in the title
| Episodes II (Attack of the Clones), III (Revenge of the Sith), and VI (Return of the Jedi) are the movies. This gives the odds of 3/9 ≈ 33% .
|-
| You win the Monty Hall sports car by picking a door and refusing to switch
| The {{w|Monty Hall problem}} is a counterintuitive logic problem, in which you pick one of three doors at random. One of the doors has a car behind it, so the odds that you picked the door are 1/3 ≈ 33%. Thus, by not switching doors, your odds remain the same. The Monty Hall problem has previously appeared in [[1282: Monty Hall]] and [[1492: Dress Color]].
|-
| You win rock paper scissors by picking randomly
| The odds of beating an opponent on the first try by picking randomly is 1/3 ≈ 33% .
|-
| 34%
| You draw five cards and get an ace
| The odds are 1 - (48/52)(47/51)(46/50)(45/49)(44/48) ≈ 34% .
|-
| 35%
| A random Scrabble tile is one of the letters in "random"
| The odds of drawing a letter in "random" are (6 + 9 + 6 + 4 + 8 + 2)/100 = 35% .
|-
| 39%
| LeBron James gets two free throws but misses one
| 
|-
| 40%
| A random Scrabble tile is a letter in "Steph Curry"
| The odds of drawing a letter in "Steph Curry" are (4 + 6 + 12 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 4 + 6 + 2)/100 = 40% .
|-
| 46%
| There's a magnitude 7 quake in LA within 30 years
|
|-
| rowspan="2"|48%
| {{w|Milwaukee}} has a white Christmas
| According to Randall's source, the probability of snow cover in Milwaukee is 48%.
|-
| A random Scrabble tile is a letter in Carly Rae Jepsen
| The odds of a Scrabble tile being in her name are (2 + 9 + 6 + 4 + 2 + 12 + 1 + 2 + 4 + 6)/100 = 48% .
|-
| 50%
| You get heads in a coin toss
| There are two options in a coin toss, heads or tails, so the odds of getting heads is 50% (1/2).
|-
| 53%
| {{w|Salt Lake City}} has a white Christmas
| According to Randall's source, the probability of snow cover in Salt Lake City is 53%.
|-
| 54%
| LeBron James gets two free throws and makes both
| James' career FT percentage is 73%, so the probability of making 2 FT is (73%)^2 = 53.9%.
|-
| 58%
| A random Scrabble tile is a letter in "Nate Silver"
| {{w|Nate Silver}} is a recurring person on xkcd. The odds of a Scrabble tile being in his name are (6 + 9 + 6 + 12 + 4 + 9 + 4 + 2 + 6)/100 = 58% .
|-
| 60%
| You get two M&Ms and neither is blue
| 
|-
| 65%
| {{w|Burlington, Vermont}} has a white Christmas
| According to Randall's source, the probability of snow cover in Burlington is 65%.
|-
| 66%
| A randomly chosen movie from the main Lord of the Rings trilogy has “of the” in the title twice
| The titles are:
* ''The Lord '''of the''' Rings: The Fellowship '''of the''' Ring''
* ''The Lord '''of the''' Rings: The Two Towers''
* ''The Lord '''of the''' Rings: The Return '''of the''' King''
All of them have “of the” at least once, in “The Lord of the Rings”, but only the first and third have it twice, and 2/3 ≈ 66%. This number typically rounds up to 67% , however, and it is unclear why it is not, given that the same reduced fraction is written in the 67% category below.
|-
| 67%
| You roll at least a 3 with a d6
| The set of "at least 3" on a d6 refers to 3, 4, 5, and 6. The odds are 4/6 ≈ 67%.
|-
| 71%
| A random Scrabble tile beats a random dice roll
| This is a typo, as the correct probability is at the 14% entry. A random (d6) die roll beats a random Scrabble tile 71% of the time. [[Randall]] probably meant to write '''A random d6 dice roll''' beats '''a random Scrabble tile'''.
|-
| 73%
| LeBron James makes a free throw
| This is James' career FT percentage, 73%.
|-
| 75%
| You drop two M&Ms and one of them ends with the "M" up so it's clear they're not Skittles
| The odds of at least one 'M' showing up is 1 - (1/4) = 75% . The reference to {{w|Skittles}} is that the two candies look similar to one another, and Randall has probably bit into a Skittle thinking it was an M&M, or vice versa. This trick might prevent that from happening in the future.
|-
| 76%
| You get two M&Ms and neither is red
| 
|-
| 77%
| You get an an M&M and it's not blue
|
|-
| 78%
| An NBA team wins when they're up 10 at halftime
|
|-
| 79%
| St. Louis doesn't have a white Christmas
| According to Randall's source, the probability of snow cover in St. Louis is 21%, thus the probability of ''no'' snow cover is 79%.

|-
| 81%
| Two random people are both right-handed
| The probability of 1 person being right-handed is about 90%, thus the probability of 2 right handers is (90%)^2 = 81%.
|-
| 83%
| Steph Curry gets two free throws and makes both
| Curry's career FT percentage is 91%, so the probability of making 2 FTs is (91%)^2 = 82.81%.
|-
| 85%
| You roll a d20 and get at least a 4
| The set "at least 4" on a d20 refers to 4, 5, 6... 18, 19, 20. The odds of this are 17/20 = 85% .
|-
| rowspan="2"| 87%
| An NBA team up by 10 going into the 4<sup>th</sup> quarter wins
|
|-
| Someone fails to guess your card given 7 tries
|
|-
| 88%
| A randomly chosen American lives outside California
| This is the opposite of the previous California probability. As the probability of an American living in California is 12%, the opposite would be 88%.
|-
| 89%
| You roll a 3 or higher given two tries
| The probability of rolling a 3 or higher (on a 6-sided die) is 66%, so the percentage of rolling a 3 or higher given 2 tries is 1 - (1-.66)^2 = 89%.
|-
| 90%
| Someone fails to guess your card given 5 tries
| Assuming they guess five different cards, there are 47 unguessed cards left. 47/52 = 0.90385 ~ 90% 
|-
| rowspan="2"| 91%
| You incorrectly guess that someone was born in August
| The odds of someone being born in August are ~9% , so the odds that a person was not born in August is ~91% .
|-
| Steph Curry makes a free throw
| This is Curry's career FT percentage, 91%.
|-
| 92%
| You guess someone's birth month at random and are wrong
| On average, a month lasts ~8% of the year. Thus, if you were to guess someone's birth month at random, you would be wrong ~92% of the time.
|-
| 93%
| Lebron James makes a free throw given two tries
| James' career FT percentage is 73%, so the percentage of his making at least 1 FT given 2 tries is 1 - (1-.73)^2 = 93%.
|-
| 94%
| Someone fails to guess your card given 3 tries
| The odds of this happening are (51/52)(50/51)(49/50) ≈ 94% .
|-
| 95%
| An NBA team wins when they're up 20 at halftime
|
|-
| 96%
| Someone fails to guess your card given 2 tries
| The odds of this happening are (51/52)(50/51) ≈ 96% .
|-
| 97%
| You try to guess 5 coin tosses and fail
| The odds of this happening are 1 - (1/2)<sup>5</sup> ≈ 97% .
|-
| 98%
| You incorrectly guess someone's birthday is this week
| The odds of this happening are about 51/52 ≈ 98%.
|-
| 98.5%
| An NBA team up 15 points with 8 minutes left wins
|
|-
| 99%
| Steph Curry makes a free throw given two tries
| James' career FT percentage is 91%, so the percentage of his making at least 1 FT given 2 tries is 1 - (1-.91)^2 = 99%.
|-
| 99.5%
| An NBA team that's up by 30 points at halftime wins
|
|-
| 99.7%
| You guess someone's birthday at random and are wrong
| The odds of this are 364/365 ≈ 99.7%.
|-
| 99.8%
| There's not a {{w|Moment magnitude scale|magnitude}} 8 quake in {{w|California}} next year
|
|-
| 99.9%
| A random group of three people contains a right-hander
| About 90% of people are right-handed, so the percentage of at least 1 right-hander in a group of 3 is 1 - (1-.9)^3 = 99.9%.
|-
| 99.99%
| You incorrectly guess the last four digits of someone's social security number
| There are 10 digits in a Social Security Number, but the last four are commonly used as an identity verification factor. The odds of this are 1 - (1/10)<sup>4</sup> = 99.99% .
|-
| 99.9999999999999995%
| You pick up a phone, dial a random 10-digit number, and say 'Hello Barack Obama, there's just been a {{w|Moment magnitude scale|magnitude}} 8 earthquake in {{w|California}}!" and are wrong
| In order to get this ''right,'' two highly improbable things would have to happen simultaneously. First you would have to guess Barack Obama's phone number. (A few of the digits ''could'' be worked out logically - as an American, for instance, Obama's phone number would start with a 1 for the {{w|List of country calling codes|country calling code}} - but the text specifies that the entire number is random.) Then, you would have to call that number when there's a magnitude 8 earthquake in California (the time interval isn't given, however).
|-
| 0.00000001%
| You add "Hang on, this is big — I'm going to loop in Carly Rae Jepsen", dial another random 10-digit number, and she picks up
| The odds of this are 1 - (1/10)<sup>10</sup> = 0.00000001% .
|}


===References===
{{#tag:references}}

==Trivia==
In the original comic, "outside" in the 88% probability section is spelled incorrectly as "outide". In addition, the 39% section had "two free throw" instead of "throws".

The (seemingly unimportant) odds of LeBron James' versus Stephen Curry's free throws and names in Scrabble refer to [[2002: LeBron James and Stephen Curry]].

==Transcript==
<big>Probability Comparisons</big>

0.01% You guess the last four digits of someone's social security number on the first try

0.1% Three randomly chosen people are all left-handed

0.2% You draw 2 random Scrabble tiles and get M and M

You draw 3 random M&Ms and they're all red

0.3% You guess someone's birthday in one try.

0.5% An NBA team down by 30 at halftime wins

You get 4 M&Ms and they're all brown or yellow

1% Steph Curry gets two free throws and misses both

LeBron James guesses your birthday, if each guess costs one free throw and he loses if he misses

1.5% You get two M&Ms and they're both red

You share a birthday with a Backstreet Boy

2% You guess someone's card on the first try

3% You guess 5 coin tosses and get them all right

Steph Curry wins that birthday free throw game

4% You sweep a 3-game rock paper scissors series

Portland, Oregon has a white Christmas

You share a birthday with two US Senators

5% An NBA team down 20 at halftime wins

You roll a natural 20

6% You correctly guess someone's card given 3 tries

7% LeBron James gets two free throws and misses both

8% You correctly guess someone's card given 4 tries

9% Steph Curry misses a free throw

10% You draw 5 cards and get the Ace of Spades

There's a magnitude 8+ earthquake in the next month

11% You sweep a 2-game rock paper scissors series

12% A randomly-chosen American lives in California

You correctly guess someone's card given 6 tries

You share a birthday with a US President

13% A d6 beats a d20

An NBA team down 10 going into the 4th quarter wins

You pull one M&M from a bag and it's red

14% A randomly drawn scrabble tile beats a d6 die roll

15% You roll a d20 and get at least 18

16% Steph Curry gets two free throws but makes only one

17% You roll a d6 die and get a 6

18% A d6 beats or ties a d20

19% At least one person in a random pair is left-handed

20% You get a dozen M&Ms and none of them are brown

21% St. Louis has a white Christmas

22% An NBA team wins when they're down 10 at halftime

23% You get an M&M and it's blue

You share a birthday with a US senator

24% You correctly guess that someone was born in the winter

25% You correctly guess that someone was born in the fall

You roll two plain M&Ms and get M and M.

26% You correctly guess someone was born in the summer

27% LeBron James misses a free throw

32% Pittsburgh has a white Christmas

33% A randomly chosen Star Wars movie (Episodes I-IX) has "of the" in the title

You win the Monty Hall sports car by picking a door and refusing to switch

You win rock paper scissors by picking randomly

34% You draw five cards and get an ace

35% A random Scrabble tile is one of the letters in "random"

39% LeBron James gets two free throws but misses one

40% A random Scrabble tile is a letter in "Steph Curry"

46% There's a magnitude 7 quake in LA within 30 years

48% Milwaukee has a white Christmas

A random Scrabble tile is a letter in Carly Rae Jepsen

50% You get heads in a coin toss

53% Salt Lake City has a white Christmas

54% LeBron James gets two free throws and makes both

58% A random Scrabble tile is a letter in "Nate Silver"

60% You get two M&Ms and neither is blue

65% Burlington, Vermont has a white Christmas

66% A randomly chosen movie from the main Lord of the Rings trilogy has “of the” in the title twice

67% You roll at least a 3 with a d6

71% A random Scrabble tile beats a random dice roll

73% LeBron James makes a free throw

75% You drop two M&Ms and one of them ends with the "M" up so it's clear they're not Skittles

76% You get two M&Ms and neither is red

77% You get an an M&M and it's not blue

78% An NBA team wins when they're up 10 at halftime

79% St. Louis doesn't have a white Christmas

81% Two random people are both right-handed

83% Steph Curry gets two free throws and makes both

85% You roll a d20 and get at least a 4

87% An NBA team up by 10 going into the 4<sup>th</sup> quarter wins

Someone fails to guess your card given 7 tries

88% A randomly chosen American lives outside California

89% You roll a 3 or higher given two tries

90% Someone fails to guess your card given 5 tries

91% You incorrectly guess that someone was born in August

Steph Curry makes a free throw

92% You guess someone's birth month at random and are wrong

93% Lebron James makes a free throw given two tries

94% Someone fails to guess your card given 3 tries

95% An NBA team wins when they're up 20 at halftime

96% Someone fails to guess your card given 2 tries

97% You try to guess 5 coin tosses and fail

98% You incorrectly guess someone's birthday is this week

98.5% An NBA team up 15 points with 8 minutes left wins

99% Steph Curry makes a free throw given two tries

99.5% An NBA team that's up by 30 points at halftime wins

99.7% You guess someone's birthday at random and are wrong

99.8% There's not a magnitude 8 quake in California next year

99.9% A random group of three people contains a right-hander

99.99% You incorrectly guess the last four digits of someone's social security number

99.9999999999999995% You pick up a phone, dial a random 10-digit number, and say 'Hello Barack Obama, there's just been a magnitude 8 earthquake in California!" and are wrong

0.00000001% You add "Hang on, this is big — I'm going to loop in Carly Rae Jepsen", dial another random 10-digit number, and she picks up

Sources: https://xkcd.com/2379/sources/

{{comic discussion}}
[[Category:Statistics]]
[[Category:Comics featuring real people]]
[[Category:Comics featuring politicians]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Nate Silver]]
[[Category:Basketball]]
[[Category:Christmas]]
[[Category:Food]]