Editing 2476: Base Rate

{{comic
| number    = 2476
| date      = June 14, 2021
| title     = Base Rate
| image     = base_rate.png
| titletext = Sure, you can talk about per-capita adjustment, but if you want to solve the problem, it's obvious that this is the group you need to focus on.
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a LEFTY. Seems like the entire first paragraph has very little to do with this comic. And there is not enough explanation of why Cueball's statement is a base rate error. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}

The "{{w|base rate}}" is a type of base probability, which a statistical probability can be based on. The {{w|base rate fallacy}} is a type of error in which people are presented with the rate at which something occurs throughout an entire population along with more specific information about a subset of that population, and tend to ignore the whole-population information in favor of the specific information. For instance, imagine a disease that is present in 1% of the population, for which there is a test with a 5% false-positive rate. This test might be presented as "95% accurate", and so people who receive a positive result from such a test are likely to think they have the disease. However, someone who receives a positive test result has only a 17% chance of actually having the disease; a much more likely reason for the positive result, occurring in 83% of all positive test results, is a false (wrong) positive.

In this case, the joke is that 90% of people are right-handed, so if there is no connection between handedness and making base rate errors, then 90% of these errors would be made by right handers.  Thus [[Cueball|Cueball's]] claim that right-handers commit 90% of base-rate errors is itself a base-rate error. 

Cueball may be holding the pointer in his right hand, suggesting he might be right-handed (as 90% of stick figures are{{fact}}).  Since Cueball has no facial features it is impossible to tell if he faces the audience, or looking at his graph. However, it seems most likely that he is looking at his audience while delivering the take home message and thus points at the graph behind him. Thus he likely belongs to the 90% that makes 90% of the base-rate errors, one of those he is just committing.

In the title text, Cueball dismisses the idea of adjusting his graph to account for the difference in numbers of left-handed versus right-handed members of the population.  He suggests focusing efforts on the right-handed majority to resolve that 90% of base rate errors.  How exactly an educational outreach program should focus its efforts on right-handed people is unclear.

Something similar occurs in [[1138: Heatmap]], where Cueball makes inferences simply based on a population map of the US, instead of statistical evidence.

==Transcript==
:[Cueball is standing in front of a screen that shows a bar graph with 2 bars with labels beneath. The right bar is significantly higher than the left. Cueball is holding a pointer which he points at the label of the highest bar, which has been encircled.]
:Cueball: Remember, right-handed people commit 90% of all base rate errors.
:Label: L R

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Bar charts]]
[[Category:Comics featuring Cueball]]
[[Category:Statistics]]