Editing 2357: Polls vs the Street
Warning: You are not logged in. Your IP address will be publicly visible if you make any edits. If you log in or create an account, your edits will be attributed to your username, along with other benefits.
The edit can be undone.
Please check the comparison below to verify that this is what you want to do, and then save the changes below to finish undoing the edit.
Latest revision | Your text | ||
Line 6: | Line 6: | ||
| titletext = Other pollsters complain about declining response rates, but our poll showed that 96% of respondents would be 'somewhat likely' or 'very likely' to agree to answer a series of questions for a survey. | | titletext = Other pollsters complain about declining response rates, but our poll showed that 96% of respondents would be 'somewhat likely' or 'very likely' to agree to answer a series of questions for a survey. | ||
}} | }} | ||
− | |||
==Explanation== | ==Explanation== | ||
+ | {{incomplete|Created by AN APPRECIATIVE CAR. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}} | ||
This comic discusses getting data or opinions through a study (polls) or by getting them anecdotally (on the street). The phrase "voice on the street" is commonly used by news reporters who get opinions on issues by literally asking people walking by what they think, and has been previously mentioned (and derided) in [[756: Public Opinion]]. | This comic discusses getting data or opinions through a study (polls) or by getting them anecdotally (on the street). The phrase "voice on the street" is commonly used by news reporters who get opinions on issues by literally asking people walking by what they think, and has been previously mentioned (and derided) in [[756: Public Opinion]]. | ||
Many news organizations, and other data-driven institutions, conduct or commission polls to assess the opinions of the general public. These polls generally rely on asking a randomly selected and anonymous set of people a set of consistent, prepared and deliberately crafted questions about their opinions, experiences, and intents. The results of these polls are traditionally held to reflect the views of the public as a whole, within certain margins for error. Many news shows also conduct "man-on-the-street" interviews (more formally known as ''{{w|vox populi}}'', "voice of the people"), to provide a human face of "the public" and engage viewers more. Many pollsters, pundits, and politicians worry that polling data may not accurately reflect the true trends in public opinion, as in the infamous "{{w|Dewey Defeats Truman}}" newspaper headline, and so White Hat is here extolling the virtues of interviewing [https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/logicalfallacies/Appeal-to-Common-Folk "real people"] to get at that ground truth. | Many news organizations, and other data-driven institutions, conduct or commission polls to assess the opinions of the general public. These polls generally rely on asking a randomly selected and anonymous set of people a set of consistent, prepared and deliberately crafted questions about their opinions, experiences, and intents. The results of these polls are traditionally held to reflect the views of the public as a whole, within certain margins for error. Many news shows also conduct "man-on-the-street" interviews (more formally known as ''{{w|vox populi}}'', "voice of the people"), to provide a human face of "the public" and engage viewers more. Many pollsters, pundits, and politicians worry that polling data may not accurately reflect the true trends in public opinion, as in the infamous "{{w|Dewey Defeats Truman}}" newspaper headline, and so White Hat is here extolling the virtues of interviewing [https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/logicalfallacies/Appeal-to-Common-Folk "real people"] to get at that ground truth. | ||
− | White Hat suggests that, while polls suggest "candidate X" is more favored, the people on the street that White Hat interviews are more supportive of "candidate Y". He implies that his experiences reflect reality better than the polls. There are a number of reasons why polls may not be entirely representative. The sampling method might not be genuinely random, some groups might be less likely than others to respond to a poll, and it's argued that some people express views that they consider to be more socially acceptable, even in anonymous polls, but vote differently in actual elections (examples include the "{{w|Bradley effect}}" and the "{{w|shy Tory factor}}"). Despite these concerns, there is little evidence that individual conversations do a better job at determining public opinion | + | White Hat suggests that, while polls suggest "candidate X" is more favored, the people on the street that White Hat interviews are more supportive of "candidate Y". He implies that his experiences reflect reality better than the polls. There are a number of reasons why polls may not be entirely representative. The sampling method might not be genuinely random, some groups might be less likely than others to respond to a poll, and it's argued that some people express views that they consider to be more socially acceptable, even in anonymous polls, but vote differently in actual elections (examples include the "{{w|Bradley effect}}" and the "{{w|shy Tory factor}}"). Despite these concerns, there is little evidence that individual conversations do a better job at determining public opinion |
− | This comic is likely a reference to the {{w|2020 | + | This comic is very likely a reference to the {{w|2020 Presidential Election}}, which was ongoing at the time of the comic's publication. Most polls showed Democratic candidate Joe Biden polling ahead of incumbent Donald Trump, but Trump and his supporters frequently argued that the polls were inaccurate, often arguing that they personally knew or talked to many Trump supporters, and few Biden supporters. Such is generally a poor basis for gauging public support, for multiple reasons. Politics in the US are frequently regional, so sampling in a single area is unlikely to be representative of the whole country, or even a whole state. It's not uncommon for gathering places (both physical and virtual) to attract people from one political group more than another, producing a skewed sample. If someone uses their own perception, rather than rigorous analysis, {{W|confirmation bias}} is likely to have a major impact (a person might pay more attention to supporters of their preferred candidate, and ignore political opponents). |
This strip lampoons such thinking, as it quickly becomes clear that White Hat's methodology is heavily driven by selection bias. He's apparently talking only to the residents of his town, and extrapolating those results to the whole country. By that logic, he would conclude that ''everyone'' has visited his town, and most people live there. It is true that he's getting "ground truth", but it's also true that he's only sampling a very small (and highly idiosyncratic) part of the whole population. | This strip lampoons such thinking, as it quickly becomes clear that White Hat's methodology is heavily driven by selection bias. He's apparently talking only to the residents of his town, and extrapolating those results to the whole country. By that logic, he would conclude that ''everyone'' has visited his town, and most people live there. It is true that he's getting "ground truth", but it's also true that he's only sampling a very small (and highly idiosyncratic) part of the whole population. | ||
− | + | In the final panel, White Hat claims that, contrary to polls stating that playing in traffic is unpopular, everybody he meets on the street enjoys it. This is a joke about the phrase "on the street". Usually this phrase means people walking on the sidewalk beside a road, but White Hat is presumably taking the phrase literally and interviewing people he finds on the roadway. In the US, roads are generally reserved for motor vehicles, and walking or standing in the roadway for long periods is dangerous and usually illegal. The ones who are found on the roadway would generally be from the small fraction of the population who have no qualms about darting around traffic on foot, despite the dangers. Hence the people he interviews enjoy playing in traffic, though this is far from common among the American public. | |
− | The title text is a joke about {{w|selection bias}} | + | The title text is a joke about {{w|selection bias}} and {{w|tautology}}. People who don't feel like taking surveys wouldn't get as far as answering a survey question about survey questions. |
==Transcript== | ==Transcript== | ||
+ | {{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}} | ||
:White Hat: Polls are just numbers. | :White Hat: Polls are just numbers. | ||
:White Hat: You have to talk to people on the ''street''. | :White Hat: You have to talk to people on the ''street''. |