Difference between revisions of "Talk:2311: Confidence Interval"
Line 10: | Line 10: | ||
Isn't the (or a) reason that this is a science ''tip'' is that having confidence lines are off the page makes it look as if the prediction is precise? [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.65|141.101.99.65]] 11:35, 26 May 2020 (UTC) | Isn't the (or a) reason that this is a science ''tip'' is that having confidence lines are off the page makes it look as if the prediction is precise? [[Special:Contributions/141.101.99.65|141.101.99.65]] 11:35, 26 May 2020 (UTC) | ||
− | Real life example of this comic (scroll down to Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, etc): https://rt.live/ | + | Real life example of this comic (scroll down to Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, etc): https://rt.live/ |
+ | [[User:Godzilla|Godzilla]] ([[User talk:Godzilla|talk]]) 13:37, 26 May 2020 (UTC) |
Revision as of 13:37, 26 May 2020
What's a millisigma? 162.158.107.209 03:31, 26 May 2020 (UTC)Ven
- Not an official scientific term - most likely referring to standard deviation. One standard deviation, or sigma, is the 68.3 % of values lying around the mean in a normal distribution. A millisigma in a standard deviation would be .0683 % of a normal distribution so that much variation would be bad? Not sure. 172.69.63.203 05:23, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
- Actually, if you integrate a normal distribution from to , you'll get a range of about 0.08% of all values. This would be bad because it would mean that, as big as the confidence interval appears in the picture, the more meaningful 1- or 3-sigma interval (whose size represents the uncertainty of the model) would be larger by a factor of 1250 or 3750, respectively. --Koveras (talk) 08:38, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
- Perhaps you heard about Six Sigma, a quality method used by General Electric (among others) to keep specifications and processes within tiny tolerances. The six sigmas mean that even absolute (so-called) outliers in your production are within the strict tolerances. With milli-sigmas it is extremely seldom to get an acceptable result at all. Sebastian --108.162.229.234 10:53, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
Can it be related to Covid19 pandemia and all those graphs that try to predict if it is in decline or not? Tkopec (talk) 08:27, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
- No. But maybe it's related to the recent Mt. St. Helens comic... :p Seriously, not everything has to be related to the hot-button topic of the day.
- Au contraire, mes amis, it is obvious to me that 1: Barrel - Part 1 is about socially isolating away from the virus. (Remember to sign?) 162.158.158.237 10:56, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
Isn't the (or a) reason that this is a science tip is that having confidence lines are off the page makes it look as if the prediction is precise? 141.101.99.65 11:35, 26 May 2020 (UTC)
Real life example of this comic (scroll down to Alaska, Hawaii, Montana, etc): https://rt.live/ Godzilla (talk) 13:37, 26 May 2020 (UTC)