Editing 2289: Scenario 4
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==Explanation== | ==Explanation== | ||
− | + | {{incomplete|Created by GRAPHING ERRORS. Needs elaborating on the comic, and needs an explanation of the title text.}} | |
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In [[2278: Scientific Briefing]], [[Megan]] and [[Cueball]] were briefing [[White Hat]] on things that were getting bad, hoping to convince him to do something about them. He chose to wait until things actually got bad. Evidently, that has happened, and now Megan and Cueball are delivering another briefing on just how much "Bad Stuff" there might be, according to their models. | In [[2278: Scientific Briefing]], [[Megan]] and [[Cueball]] were briefing [[White Hat]] on things that were getting bad, hoping to convince him to do something about them. He chose to wait until things actually got bad. Evidently, that has happened, and now Megan and Cueball are delivering another briefing on just how much "Bad Stuff" there might be, according to their models. | ||
− | In the context of the information (and misinformation) explosion associated with the COVID-19 pandemic (ongoing at the time that this comic was published), many graphs have been shown highlighting the prevalence of the disease - the number of cases at any one time and place, and the change in the number of cases over time. That being said, the graphs shown could easily apply to any number of scenarios where an upward trend is bad. | + | This is another comic in the coronavirus series. In the context of the information (and misinformation) explosion associated with the COVID-19 pandemic (ongoing at the time that this comic was published), many graphs have been shown highlighting the prevalence of the disease - the number of cases at any one time and place, and the change in the number of cases over time. That being said, the graphs shown could easily apply to any number of scenarios where an upward trend is bad. |
− | Several of these graphs have attempted to predict the future, using statistical tools ("models") to process existing data and generate a forecast. Inputs to the model(s) may include different assessments of, for example, the number of COVID-19 cases that have been recorded. Four scenarios are presented here, presumably showing what a particular model (probably only one despite the reference to "new | + | Several of these graphs have attempted to predict the future, using statistical tools ("models") to process existing data and generate a forecast. Inputs to the model(s) may include different assessments of, for example, the number of COVID-19 cases that have been recorded. Four scenarios are presented here, presumably showing what a particular model (probably only one despite the reference to "new modelS" in the comic) forecasts given different, unspecified, inputs. |
− | Megan and Cueball present | + | Megan and Cueball present three possible scenarios. |
* The first, "best case" scenario recalls "flatten the curve" graphs that predict an occurrence will eventually cease to increase altogether. Using COVID-19 as an example, if strictest measures are put into place and adhered to, all those who have contracted COVID-19 will eventually be reported, and no further victims will contract it. | * The first, "best case" scenario recalls "flatten the curve" graphs that predict an occurrence will eventually cease to increase altogether. Using COVID-19 as an example, if strictest measures are put into place and adhered to, all those who have contracted COVID-19 will eventually be reported, and no further victims will contract it. | ||
* The second and third scenarios are increasingly worse cases, predicting that the occurrence will continue unceasingly. Again using COVID-19 as an example, the less measures are put into place or adhered to, the more COVID-19 cases that will occur. Scenario 3 appears to indicate an exponential increase best suited to a log scale; "pretty bad" is an understatement. | * The second and third scenarios are increasingly worse cases, predicting that the occurrence will continue unceasingly. Again using COVID-19 as an example, the less measures are put into place or adhered to, the more COVID-19 cases that will occur. Scenario 3 appears to indicate an exponential increase best suited to a log scale; "pretty bad" is an understatement. | ||
− | * The fourth curve is | + | * The fourth curve is only possible if cases (as of COVID-19) are allowed to increase while time goes backwards, using the common trope in science fiction of time traveling creating an alternate timeline in which events are different, with the curve graphing the "bad stuff" as measured by the time travellers in their frame of reference. Hence the remark, "this model explores time travel", in the title text. This a brain cramp to visualize, and the consequences of it actually happening would be calamitous on several levels. Yes, one would definitely wish to avoid this one. (Real modelers might encounter such "graphing errors" while they are developing their models and testing their functions, but persons who went so far as to present such glitches in public, except for a laugh as here, would likely be asked to hand in their modeler's cards.) |
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− | + | ==Trivia== | |
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+ | This is the first [https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/Category:Saturday_comics Saturday comic] since 2006. | ||
==Transcript== | ==Transcript== | ||
− | :[Megan and Cueball are standing in front of a large graph, with | + | Panel 1: [ Megan and Cueball are standing in front of a large graph, with Time along the horizontal axis and ''Bad Stuff'' along the vertical axis. The curve on the graph shows a generally shallow upward slope. ] |
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− | + | Megan: Our new models outline a few possible scenarios. | |
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+ | Cueball: #1 is the best scenario. | ||
− | :[The graph now shows a much steeper curve, before flattening out far in the future, similar to a logistic curve.] | + | Panel 2: [ The graph now shows a much steeper curve, before flattening out far in the future, similar to a logistic curve. ] |
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− | + | Megan: Scenario 2 is not so great. | |
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− | :[The graph | + | Panel 3: [ The graph now climbs quite quickly, approximating an exponential curve. ] |
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− | + | Cueball: Scenario 3 would be pretty bad. | |
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− | + | Panel 4: [ The graph starts curling up, like the exponential curve, but continues curving back, so that it no longer qualifies as a function, and may indicate rear-ward time-travel. ] | |
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− | + | Megan: Then there is scenario 4. We '''think''' it's a graphing error. | |
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+ | Cueball: If not, we ''definitely'' want to avoid it. | ||
+ | [[Category:COVID 19]] | ||
{{comic discussion}} | {{comic discussion}} | ||
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