Editing 2289: Scenario 4
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==Explanation== | ==Explanation== | ||
− | + | {{incomplete|Created by GRAPHING ERRORS. Needs elaborating on the comic, and needs an explanation of the title text.}} | |
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+ | This comic is the 14th comic in a row (not counting the [[2288: Collector's Edition|April Fools' comic]]) in a [[:Category:COVID-19|series of comics]] related to the {{w|2019–20 coronavirus outbreak|2020 pandemic}} of the {{w|coronavirus}} - {{w|SARS-CoV-2}}. | ||
In [[2278: Scientific Briefing]], [[Megan]] and [[Cueball]] were briefing [[White Hat]] on things that were getting bad, hoping to convince him to do something about them. He chose to wait until things actually got bad. Evidently, that has happened, and now Megan and Cueball are delivering another briefing on just how much "Bad Stuff" there might be, according to their models. | In [[2278: Scientific Briefing]], [[Megan]] and [[Cueball]] were briefing [[White Hat]] on things that were getting bad, hoping to convince him to do something about them. He chose to wait until things actually got bad. Evidently, that has happened, and now Megan and Cueball are delivering another briefing on just how much "Bad Stuff" there might be, according to their models. | ||
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In the context of the information (and misinformation) explosion associated with the COVID-19 pandemic (ongoing at the time that this comic was published), many graphs have been shown highlighting the prevalence of the disease - the number of cases at any one time and place, and the change in the number of cases over time. That being said, the graphs shown could easily apply to any number of scenarios where an upward trend is bad. | In the context of the information (and misinformation) explosion associated with the COVID-19 pandemic (ongoing at the time that this comic was published), many graphs have been shown highlighting the prevalence of the disease - the number of cases at any one time and place, and the change in the number of cases over time. That being said, the graphs shown could easily apply to any number of scenarios where an upward trend is bad. | ||
− | Several of these graphs have attempted to predict the future, using statistical tools ("models") to process existing data and generate a forecast. Inputs to the model(s) may include different assessments of, for example, the number of COVID-19 cases that have been recorded. Four scenarios are presented here, presumably showing what a particular model (probably only one despite the reference to "new | + | Several of these graphs have attempted to predict the future, using statistical tools ("models") to process existing data and generate a forecast. Inputs to the model(s) may include different assessments of, for example, the number of COVID-19 cases that have been recorded. Four scenarios are presented here, presumably showing what a particular model (probably only one despite the reference to "new modelS" in the comic) forecasts given different, unspecified, inputs. |
Megan and Cueball present four scenarios, only three of which are possible. | Megan and Cueball present four scenarios, only three of which are possible. | ||
* The first, "best case" scenario recalls "flatten the curve" graphs that predict an occurrence will eventually cease to increase altogether. Using COVID-19 as an example, if strictest measures are put into place and adhered to, all those who have contracted COVID-19 will eventually be reported, and no further victims will contract it. | * The first, "best case" scenario recalls "flatten the curve" graphs that predict an occurrence will eventually cease to increase altogether. Using COVID-19 as an example, if strictest measures are put into place and adhered to, all those who have contracted COVID-19 will eventually be reported, and no further victims will contract it. | ||
* The second and third scenarios are increasingly worse cases, predicting that the occurrence will continue unceasingly. Again using COVID-19 as an example, the less measures are put into place or adhered to, the more COVID-19 cases that will occur. Scenario 3 appears to indicate an exponential increase best suited to a log scale; "pretty bad" is an understatement. | * The second and third scenarios are increasingly worse cases, predicting that the occurrence will continue unceasingly. Again using COVID-19 as an example, the less measures are put into place or adhered to, the more COVID-19 cases that will occur. Scenario 3 appears to indicate an exponential increase best suited to a log scale; "pretty bad" is an understatement. | ||
− | * The fourth curve is not possible | + | * The fourth curve is not possible, as each point along the x-axis represents a specific time point. If the curve passes the same time point twice (as it does) then this means that on a given day there were two different number of cases. E.g. on the 1st of April there would have been both 100 and 1000 people infected, which makes no sense at all. The only way to make sense of it would be by using the common trope in science fiction of time traveling creating an alternate timeline in which events are different, thus the cases could be 100 in one timeline and 1000 in a different timeline. Hence the remark, "this model explores time travel", in the title text. This a brain cramp to visualize, and the consequences of it actually happening would be calamitous on several levels. (Real modelers might encounter such "graphing errors" while they are developing their models and testing their functions, but persons who went so far as to present such glitches in public, except for a laugh as here, would likely be asked to hand in their modeler's cards.) |
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− | + | ==Trivia== | |
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+ | This is the first [https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/Category:Saturday_comics Saturday comic] since 2006. | ||
==Transcript== | ==Transcript== | ||
− | :[Megan and Cueball are standing in front of a large graph, with | + | :[Megan and Cueball are standing in front of a large graph, with Time along the horizontal axis and ''Bad Stuff'' along the vertical axis. The curve on the graph shows a generally shallow upward slope.] |
:Megan: Our new models outline a few possible scenarios. | :Megan: Our new models outline a few possible scenarios. | ||
:Cueball: #1 is the best scenario. | :Cueball: #1 is the best scenario. | ||
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:Cueball: Scenario 3 would be pretty bad. | :Cueball: Scenario 3 would be pretty bad. | ||
− | :[The graph starts curling up, like the exponential curve, but continues curving back, so that it no longer qualifies as a function, and may indicate time-travel | + | :[The graph starts curling up, like the exponential curve, but continues curving back, so that it no longer qualifies as a function, and may indicate rear-ward time-travel.] |
− | :Megan: Then there is scenario 4. | + | :Megan: Then there is scenario 4. We '''''think''''' it's a graphing error. |
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:Cueball: If not, we '''''definitely''''' want to avoid it. | :Cueball: If not, we '''''definitely''''' want to avoid it. | ||
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{{comic discussion}} | {{comic discussion}} | ||
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[[Category:Comics featuring Megan]] | [[Category:Comics featuring Megan]] | ||
[[Category:Charts]] | [[Category:Charts]] | ||
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