Editing 2289: Scenario 4
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* The first, "best case" scenario recalls "flatten the curve" graphs that predict an occurrence will eventually cease to increase altogether. Using COVID-19 as an example, if strictest measures are put into place and adhered to, all those who have contracted COVID-19 will eventually be reported, and no further victims will contract it. | * The first, "best case" scenario recalls "flatten the curve" graphs that predict an occurrence will eventually cease to increase altogether. Using COVID-19 as an example, if strictest measures are put into place and adhered to, all those who have contracted COVID-19 will eventually be reported, and no further victims will contract it. | ||
* The second and third scenarios are increasingly worse cases, predicting that the occurrence will continue unceasingly. Again using COVID-19 as an example, the less measures are put into place or adhered to, the more COVID-19 cases that will occur. Scenario 3 appears to indicate an exponential increase best suited to a log scale; "pretty bad" is an understatement. | * The second and third scenarios are increasingly worse cases, predicting that the occurrence will continue unceasingly. Again using COVID-19 as an example, the less measures are put into place or adhered to, the more COVID-19 cases that will occur. Scenario 3 appears to indicate an exponential increase best suited to a log scale; "pretty bad" is an understatement. | ||
| β | * The fourth curve is not possible | + | * The fourth curve is not possible, as each point along the x-axis represents a specific time point. If the curve passes the same time point twice (as it does) then this means that on a given day there were two different number of cases. E.g. on the 1st of April there would have been both 100 and 1000 people infected, which makes no sense at all. The only way to make sense of it would be by using the common trope in science fiction of time traveling creating an alternate timeline in which events are different, thus the cases could be 100 in one timeline and 1000 in a different timeline. Hence the remark, "this model explores time travel", in the title text. This is a brain cramp to visualize, and the consequences of it actually happening would be calamitous on several levels. Real modelers might encounter such "graphing errors" while they are developing their models, entering data (especially if there are time-conversion errors), and testing their functions, but persons who went so far as to present such glitches in public, except for a laugh as here, would likely be asked to hand in their modeler's cards. |
** The 'time travel' remark is also suggestive of certain particle-physics phenomena captured in {{w|Feynman diagram}}s. Mathematically, an antiparticle moving forward in time looks like its equivalent particle moving backwards in time, so a particle-antiparticle annihilation or creation event could be interpreted as a single particle switching directions in time. In the context of this scenario, it is possible to read the fourth chart as predicting that the bad stuff will start traveling backwards in time as it increases, which we would see as a great quantity of "bad anti-stuff" appearing and decaying in number just as the "bad stuff" increases, until the two quantities meet at the halfway point and mutually annihilate. Even though there will be no more bad stuff after the annihilation (or time-reversal) event, particle-antiparticle annihilation releases enormous energies that might be even more catastrophic than whatever the bad stuff itself was. | ** The 'time travel' remark is also suggestive of certain particle-physics phenomena captured in {{w|Feynman diagram}}s. Mathematically, an antiparticle moving forward in time looks like its equivalent particle moving backwards in time, so a particle-antiparticle annihilation or creation event could be interpreted as a single particle switching directions in time. In the context of this scenario, it is possible to read the fourth chart as predicting that the bad stuff will start traveling backwards in time as it increases, which we would see as a great quantity of "bad anti-stuff" appearing and decaying in number just as the "bad stuff" increases, until the two quantities meet at the halfway point and mutually annihilate. Even though there will be no more bad stuff after the annihilation (or time-reversal) event, particle-antiparticle annihilation releases enormous energies that might be even more catastrophic than whatever the bad stuff itself was. | ||
** A fanciful interpretation of this otherwise uninterpretable graph is that the number of infections reached some sort of critical mass, breaking reality to begin spreading through time as well as space. | ** A fanciful interpretation of this otherwise uninterpretable graph is that the number of infections reached some sort of critical mass, breaking reality to begin spreading through time as well as space. | ||
