Editing 2380: Election Impact Score Sheet
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− | + | ==Explanation== | |
+ | {{incomplete|Created by SOMEONE NOT IN ARIZONA. Please mention here why this explanation isn't complete. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}} | ||
− | + | This comic was published the day before {{w|Election day in the United States}} (November 3, 2020), which features a contentious {{w|2020 United States presidential election|presidential election}} between the incumbent, President {{w|Donald Trump}}, and the challenger, former Vice President {{w|Joe Biden}}. The United States does not elect presidents by popular vote, but instead uses an {{w|United States Electoral College|electoral college}} system, with each state getting a predetermined number of electoral votes, and a majority of electoral votes needed to win an election. The previous presidential election in 2016, which involved Trump and {{w|Hillary Clinton}}, was won by Trump, who lost the popular vote by 2 percentage points, but won the electoral vote 304-227 (270 was needed to win the election). | |
− | This comic was published the day before {{w|Election day in the United States}} (November 3, 2020), which features a contentious {{w|2020 United States presidential election|presidential election}} between the incumbent, President | ||
− | Electoral college votes are distributed based on the number of congressional representatives of each state, with the most populous state, California, receiving 55 votes, and the least populous states which are Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming receiving 3 votes each | + | Electoral college votes are distributed based on the number of congressional representatives of each state, with the most populous state, California, receiving 55 votes, and the least populous states which are Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming receiving 3 votes each. Because the United States Congress has two legislative houses, with only one (the House of Representatives) apportioning representatives to the states based on their percentage of the US population and the other (the Senate) allocating two senators to every state regardless of population, smaller states have a higher ratio of electoral college votes to population than larger states do. |
Additionally, most states (all but Nebraska and Maine) give all of their electoral college votes to whoever earns the most votes in their state. This means that a small change in the percentage of voters who favor one party's candidate over another within a state doesn't make a difference on the final outcome unless that change tips the scales between the two candidates. Therefore, it's easy to predict the final electoral college votes of many states where one party has a clear lead. Other states, including some of the ones listed by Randall, are considered "{{w|swing state}}s", as they are competitive to both of the two major parties, the {{w|Republican Party (United States)|Republican Party}} and the {{w|Democratic Party (United States)|Democratic Party}}. | Additionally, most states (all but Nebraska and Maine) give all of their electoral college votes to whoever earns the most votes in their state. This means that a small change in the percentage of voters who favor one party's candidate over another within a state doesn't make a difference on the final outcome unless that change tips the scales between the two candidates. Therefore, it's easy to predict the final electoral college votes of many states where one party has a clear lead. Other states, including some of the ones listed by Randall, are considered "{{w|swing state}}s", as they are competitive to both of the two major parties, the {{w|Republican Party (United States)|Republican Party}} and the {{w|Democratic Party (United States)|Democratic Party}}. | ||
− | Together, these factors make voting in some states - "swing states" with smaller populations - much more likely to influence the outcome of the election than others. Randall in this comic is encouraging his readers to "{{w|get out the vote}}" and encourage voting among their friends and family who live in these | + | Together, these factors make voting in some states - "swing states" with smaller populations - much more likely to influence the outcome of the election than others. Randall in this comic is encouraging his readers to "{{w|get out the vote}}" and encourage voting among their friends and family who live in 18 of these states which are most likely to affect the outcome of the election. The rest of the 32 states are grouped under the "all other states" bucket, presumably as their election outcome is "safely" for Biden or Trump. |
Per many analysts, the state of {{w|Pennsylvania}} is considered an absolute necessity for Trump, and considered very important for Biden. This is why Pennsylvania is weighted the most heavily in Randall's comic. | Per many analysts, the state of {{w|Pennsylvania}} is considered an absolute necessity for Trump, and considered very important for Biden. This is why Pennsylvania is weighted the most heavily in Randall's comic. | ||
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Of course, just because a state may be a clear win for one party does not mean the votes of anyone who votes for the other party are wasted. A higher percentage of voters voting for the losing candidate sends a signal that the state is more competitive than assumed, which forces representatives to compromise and could make future voters more likely to show up because they believe their vote is more likely to matter. Additionally, many "down-ballot" races, like races for governorships, US Congress, state legislatures, and county governments, may be more competitive than the presidential race, and may have just as much or more impact on most people's lives. Randall accounts for some of these local races in deciding how to rank the states on the scoresheet. | Of course, just because a state may be a clear win for one party does not mean the votes of anyone who votes for the other party are wasted. A higher percentage of voters voting for the losing candidate sends a signal that the state is more competitive than assumed, which forces representatives to compromise and could make future voters more likely to show up because they believe their vote is more likely to matter. Additionally, many "down-ballot" races, like races for governorships, US Congress, state legislatures, and county governments, may be more competitive than the presidential race, and may have just as much or more impact on most people's lives. Randall accounts for some of these local races in deciding how to rank the states on the scoresheet. | ||
− | The text at the bottom says to post your scoresheet with ''#Hashtag''. The "#" symbol | + | The text at the bottom says to post your scoresheet with ''#Hashtag''. The "#" symbol is typically pronounced "hashtag", and so this tag for the scoresheet is nonsensical ("HashtagHashtag"), and doesn't describe anything useful. It also refers to Nate Silver's famous election forecast model at {{w|FiveThirtyEight}}. Randall closes by urging people to contact Nate Silver to tell him to adjust his model to account for the added votes they have caused, but as the form doesn't indicate which candidate the filler has voted for or plans to vote for, never mind the people contacted, there's no way for him to know what sort of update to make. Perhaps the flurry of posts bearing the hashtag "#Hashtag" and indicating an effort to increase civic engagement will be a heartwarming surprise on a day that will probably be very busy and stressful for him. |
The title text explains that even if one thinks that their family and friends always vote, or that their reminder to vote won't work, they should do so anyway because of the chance they may be wrong. | The title text explains that even if one thinks that their family and friends always vote, or that their reminder to vote won't work, they should do so anyway because of the chance they may be wrong. | ||
− | As shown in previous comics ([[1756: I'm With Her]] and others), Randall was a supporter of 2016 candidate {{w|Hillary Clinton}} (who ran against Trump), but this | + | As shown in previous comics ([[1756: I'm With Her]] and others), Randall was a supporter of 2016 candidate {{w|Hillary Clinton}} (who ran against Trump), but this assesment should be equally applicable to supporters of either of the two main candidates in the current presidential race. |
+ | The comic includes a link for a printable version: https://xkcd.com/2380/election_impact_score_sheet.pdf | ||
===Table=== | ===Table=== | ||
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! Electoral votes | ! Electoral votes | ||
! Explanation | ! Explanation | ||
− | |||
|- | |- | ||
|Pennsylvania | |Pennsylvania | ||
|x5 | |x5 | ||
|20 | |20 | ||
− | |Pennsylvania is considered an absolute necessity for Trump, and considered very important for Biden | + | |Pennsylvania is considered an absolute necessity for Trump, and considered very important for Biden. |
− | |||
|- | |- | ||
|Maine | |Maine | ||
|rowspan="3"|x4 | |rowspan="3"|x4 | ||
|4 | |4 | ||
− | |Maine is worth 4 electoral votes, but awards 2 based on the statewide popular vote and 1 vote each for the winners of its 2 congressional districts. | + | |Maine is worth 4 electoral votes, but awards 2 based on the statewide popular vote and 1 vote each for the winners of its 2 congressional districts. |
− | |||
− | |||
|- | |- | ||
|Arizona | |Arizona | ||
|11 | |11 | ||
− | |Arizona is not typically a swing state, as it usually votes for the Republican Party candidate. However, it is considered a swing state this year, with Joe Biden leading by 2 percentage points in pre-election polling | + | |Arizona is not typically a swing state, as it usually votes for the Republican Party candidate. However, it is considered a swing state this year, with Joe Biden leading by 2 percentage points in pre-election polling. |
− | |||
− | |||
|- | |- | ||
|Nevada | |Nevada | ||
|6 | |6 | ||
− | | | + | | |
− | |||
|- | |- | ||
|Alaska | |Alaska | ||
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|3 | |3 | ||
| | | | ||
− | |||
|- | |- | ||
|Montana | |Montana | ||
|3 | |3 | ||
− | | | + | | |
− | |||
|- | |- | ||
|New Mexico | |New Mexico | ||
|5 | |5 | ||
| | | | ||
− | |||
|- | |- | ||
|Wisconsin | |Wisconsin | ||
|rowspan="7"|x2 | |rowspan="7"|x2 | ||
|10 | |10 | ||
− | |Wisconsin was surprisingly won by Trump in 2016, as pre-election polling had him trailing by 6-7 percentage points. Polling for | + | |Wisconsin was surprisingly won by Trump in 2016, as pre-election polling had him trailing by 6-7 percentage points. Polling for this year's election favors Biden by 7 percentage points. |
− | |||
|- | |- | ||
|Minnesota | |Minnesota | ||
|10 | |10 | ||
− | | | + | | |
− | |||
|- | |- | ||
|Iowa | |Iowa | ||
|6 | |6 | ||
− | | | + | | |
− | |||
− | |||
|- | |- | ||
|North Carolina | |North Carolina | ||
|15 | |15 | ||
− | | | + | | |
− | |||
− | |||
|- | |- | ||
|New Hampshire | |New Hampshire | ||
|4 | |4 | ||
| | | | ||
− | |||
|- | |- | ||
|Georgia | |Georgia | ||
|16 | |16 | ||
− | | | + | | |
− | |||
|- | |- | ||
|Nebraska | |Nebraska | ||
|5 | |5 | ||
− | | | + | | |
− | |||
|- | |- | ||
|Michigan | |Michigan | ||
|rowspan="5"|x1 | |rowspan="5"|x1 | ||
|16 | |16 | ||
− | | | + | | |
− | |||
|- | |- | ||
|Florida | |Florida | ||
|29 | |29 | ||
− | | | + | | |
− | |||
|- | |- | ||
|Kansas | |Kansas | ||
|6 | |6 | ||
| | | | ||
− | |||
|- | |- | ||
|Mississippi | |Mississippi | ||
|6 | |6 | ||
| | | | ||
− | |||
|- | |- | ||
|Colorado | |Colorado | ||
|9 | |9 | ||
| | | | ||
− | |||
|- | |- | ||
|All other states | |All other states | ||
|x1/2 | |x1/2 | ||
|''varies'' | |''varies'' | ||
− | |Randall considers other states as less important than the above | + | |Randall considers other states as less important than the above 18 in influencing the outcome of the presidential election. |
− | |||
|} | |} | ||
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==Transcript== | ==Transcript== | ||
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[[Category:Comics featuring Nate Silver]] | [[Category:Comics featuring Nate Silver]] | ||
[[Category:Comics with color]] | [[Category:Comics with color]] | ||
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