Editing 3007: Probabilistic Uncertainty

{{comic
| number    = 3007
| date      = November 4, 2024
| title     = Probabilistic Uncertainty
| image     = probabilistic_uncertainty_2x.png
| imagesize = 474x385px
| noexpand  = true
| titletext = "One popular strategy is to enter an emotional spiral. Could that be the right approach? We contacted several researchers who are experts in emotional spirals to ask them, but none of them were in a state to speak with us."
}}

==Explanation==
{{incomplete|Created by a PAIR OF BOTS ARGUING WHETHER TO BE HOPEFUL OR PESSIMISTIC - Please change this comment when editing this page. Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
This comic is about the difficulty of dealing with 50/50 odds, and is likely inspired by the {{W|2024 United States presidential election}}, as this comic was released the day prior.  The odds of the election as reported by many media sources are close to 50/50, which is the third scenario shown in the comic.

Further, with regards to N/A - the odds of "precisely" 50/50 are probabilistically zero, unless the event under consideration is something relatively trivial such as a coinflip or die roll (and even with those it is extremely unlikely the coins or dice are perfectly "fair").  Any scenario that involves social sciences, such as an election (or even a single relationship) will never be precisely 50/50, and no expert in a spiral would be able to be in a balanced consultable state long enough to speak to "us".

{| class="wikitable"
!Odds
!How to think about it?
!Explanation
|-
| Good outcome more likely || Recognize that the bad outcome is possible, but be reassured that the odds are in your favor ||
|-
| Bad outcome more likely || Prepare for the bad outcome while remembering that the future isn't certain and hope is justified ||
|-
| Precisely 50/50 || ????? N/A ???? || {{w|N/A}} stands for "not available", "no answer", "not applicable" or "not assessed".
|}
The title text is a joke about emotional spirals - naturally, the emotional spiral experts would be emotionally spiralling. Or, they could be experts that are in an emotional spiral.

==Transcript==
{{incomplete transcript|Do NOT delete this tag too soon.}}
[A table titled "Coping With Probablistic Uncertainty", with two columns labeled "Scenario" and "How to think about it in an emptionally healthy way". The boxes in the Scenario column contains text followed by a rectangle split into two parts; the left part is a smiley face, the right part is a frowny face.]

Row 1, column 1: "Good outcome more likely". The smiley face portion of the rectangle is about 75%. 
Row 1, column 2: "Recognize that the bad outcome is possible, but be reassured that the odds are in your favor".

Row 2, column 1: "Bad outcome more likely". The smiley face portion of the rectangle is about 25%.
Row 2, column 2: "Prepare for the bad outcome while remembering that the future isn't certain and hope is justified".

Row 3, column 1: "Precisely 50/50". The rectangle is split in half.
Row 3, column 2: "????? N/A ????"

==Trivia==
* This comic was posted a day before Election Day in the US, where the media has been reporting that the 2 presidential candidates ([[Kamala Harris]] and [[Donald Trump]]) are closely contesting for the White House.  This may be a possible reason behind the creation of this comic. 

* Randall has dealt with the possibility of a tied electoral count 12 years before in ''what-if? [https://what-if.xkcd.com/19 #19]''

{{comic discussion}}

[[Category:Psychology]] [[Category:Statistics]]