3007: Probabilistic Uncertainty

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Probabilistic Uncertainty

Title text: "One popular strategy is to enter an emotional spiral. Could that be the right approach? We contacted several researchers who are experts in emotional spirals to ask them, but none of them were in a state to speak with us."

Explanation

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This comic is about the difficulty of dealing with 50/50 odds, and is likely inspired by the upcoming American election. The odds of the election as shown by many media sources are close to 50/50, which is the third scenario shown in the comic.

Odds	How to think about it?	Explanation
Good outcome more likely	Recognize that the bad outcome is possible, but be reassured that the odds are in your favor
Bad outcome more likely	Prepare for the bad outcome while remembering that the future isn't certain and hope is justified
Precisely 50/50	????? N/A ????	N/A stands for "not available", "no answer", "not applicable" or "not assessed".

The title text is a joke about emotional spirals - naturally, the emotional spiral experts would be emotionally spiralling. Or, they could be experts that are in an emotional spiral.

Transcript

This transcript is incomplete. Please help editing it! Thanks.

[A table titled "Coping With Probablistic Uncertainty", with two columns labeled "Scenario" and "How to think about it in an emptionally healthy way". The boxes in the Scenario column contains text followed by a rectangle split into two parts; the left part is a smiley face, the right part is a frowny face.]

Row 1, column 1: "Good outcome more likely". The smiley face portion of the rectangle is about 75%. Row 1, column 2: "Recognize that he bad outcome is possible, but be reassured that the odds are in your favor".

Row 2, column 1: "Bad outcome more likely". The smiley face portion of the rectangle is about 25%. Row 2, column 2: "Prepare for the bad outcome while remembering that the future isn't certain and hope is justified".

Row 3, column 1: "Precisely 50/50". The rectangle is split in half. Row 3, column 2: "????? N/A ????"

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Discussion

Emotional spirals are useless. I've been coping by pretending we're in scenario 1, it keeps me sane. If I'm wrong, I'll jump off that bridge when we come to it. Barmar (talk) 20:23, 4 November 2024 (UTC)

And I have a friend whose strategy is baking. It's both therapeutic and delicious. Barmar (talk) 20:41, 4 November 2024 (UTC)

I see I don't know US geography well: which bridge you can jump from to leave it? -- Hkmaly (talk) 02:34, 5 November 2024 (UTC)

I can't help but think that at preparing for the negative outcome regardless of which outcome is more likely (unless that outcome is *very* unlikely) is a healthy thing to do. 172.71.147.141 20:30, 4 November 2024 (UTC)

This comic appeared the day before the 2024 United States Presidential Election. At publication time, polls were strongly suggesting about a 50/50 odds that either major candidate would win. Recent news items included advice from mental-health professionals on how to deal with election-related anxiety. 172.71.167.195 20:32, 4 November 2024 (UTC)

Definitely related. This should be in the text, not in the comments, frankly. The yanks are going nuts about the election right now. 172.71.124.243 20:57, 4 November 2024 (UTC)

Did the advice suggested narcotics? -- Hkmaly (talk) 02:34, 5 November 2024 (UTC)

My personal policy is to expect and prepare for the worst. That way I can be surprised when it doesn't happen, and not surprised when it does, rather than the other way around. I don't "do" emotions, so it's basically just planning and mumbling colloquialisms involving the digestive system... 172.71.134.64 21:31, 4 November 2024 (UTC)

I can't help but feel that it's mostly Democrats that are anxious, where Trump winning is the bad case. Not being an American I don't have much perspective. Are many Republicans likely to also be anxious, and if so, why? 172.69.60.170 21:55, 4 November 2024 (UTC)

From what I've seen the ones in public-facing forums seem pretty indifferent. They do talk a lot about election fraud though. 172.70.34.117 (talk) 22:42, 4 November 2024 (UTC) (please sign your comments with ~~~~)

I like that the comic leaves "good" and "bad" open to interpretation.172.70.211.83 22:29, 4 November 2024 (UTC)

He doesn't want to start fights in the comments/discussion pages/replies! Good to see him appealing to no specific demographic in this one. -P?sych??otic?pot??at???o (talk) 22:40, 4 November 2024 (UTC)

Considering that the "Harris for President" banner is still active, I'm not sure I agree with that. 172.68.22.4 22:53, 4 November 2024 (UTC)

yeah, for that reason i think it's more just so the comic can have further longevity, as this way it can be applied to any number of things with two outcomes, not just the current election 141.101.109.193 00:02, 5 November 2024 (UTC)

Well, so far so good ... -- Hkmaly (talk) 02:34, 5 November 2024 (UTC)

Re Further, with regards to N/A - the odds of "precisely" 50/50 are probabilistically zero: Bear in mind that with the Electoral College system and the fact that only 7 US states are "likely in play," we are talking only hundreds or thousands of realistic possibilities. The odds of a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College are far more than 0. One possibility of a tie that is "on the radar" is if the Republicans take Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and the 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska (which is very likely to go Democratic) and the Democrats take Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If you consider just the 7 "in play" states but Arizona "flips" from Republican to Democratic, there are 3 combinations that yield a 269-269 tie. 172.70.210.249 01:29, 5 November 2024 (UTC)

Re We contacted several researchers who are experts in emotional spirals to ask them, but none of them were in a state to speak with us: Is it a stretch to think that the emotional-spiral experts were all "in Puerto Rico" (which is not a state), emotionally speaking? In the last week a supporter of one of the candidates insulted Puerto Rico and by extension, people of Puerto Rico and Puerto Rican descent, causing an emotional uproar all over the inter-tubes. 162.158.90.210 01:37, 5 November 2024 (UTC)