3260: Messi

Messi

|< < Prev #3260 (June 17, 2026)

Title text: Commentators agree that this will probably be the last World Cup in which Messi faces serious competition.

|< < Prev Random Explanation

Explanation

This is one of 46 incomplete explanations: This page was created in Lionel Messi's 398th goal. Don't remove this notice too soon. If you can fix this issue, edit the page!

In the vein of 605: Extrapolating, this comic utilizes the incorrect application of extrapolation to humorous ends. Extrapolation is a form of estimation in which existing data points are used to estimate new data points beyond the range of the existing ones. In this case, Randall appears to have fit several data points regarding soccer superstar Lionel Messi's average goals per World Cup game to a curve using what appears to be polynomial or exponential extrapolation. It illustrates the danger of a small sample size, as the data point for "2026 (so far)" is based on only one game (the day before this comic, in his inaugural game of the 2026 World Cup, Messi scored three goals), and that data point is used to support extrapolation of a rapidly rising number of goals-per-game into the future. The data points for previous World Cups, which bounce around among various values but are all less than or equal to 1.0, are each based on many more games, and as such are likely to be much better estimates of how many goals-per-game Messi will score in the future.

The title text says that this World Cup is the last one in which Messi will face serious competition. This is likely true, but humorously so, as this is almost certainly Messi's last World Cup period. However, the commentators may well have been consulting the chart, and instead be refering to how if this chart was to be true, in future games Messi would thereotically score hundreds of goals, which, assuming no-one else has the exponential rate of goals, would easily beat other players.

Transcript

This is one of 28 incomplete transcripts: Don't remove this notice too soon. If you can fix this issue, edit the page!

[A graph is shown, with 1 axis having the numbers 1, 2, & 3 going up it, and the other having 24 unlabelled marks. There are 6 points on the graph itself, with them being labelled 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022, and 2026, the latter having '(so far)' under it. There is a grey dotted curve going up in exponentially.]

[Title of graph:]Lionel Messi [new line] world cup points per game.

[Caption below text:]At this rate, by 2040 Lionel Messi will be scoring hundreds of goals per game.

  Add comment        Create topic (use sparingly)       Refresh 

Discussion

Does Randall support Messi? SectorCorruptor (talk) 16:26, 17 June 2026 (UTC)

Who doesn't support Messi? :D 130.76.187.46 18:00, 17 June 2026 (UTC)

New football/soccer terms for me! 2 goals scored in one game = Brace, 3 goals = Hat-trick, 4 goals = Haul, 5 goals = Glut BorQhue del Sol (talk) 16:58, 17 June 2026 (UTC)

I think the explanation on the hover text is missing the point that, at 38 years old, this is likely to be Messi's last world cup, which is another way in which the statement "last world cup in which he faces serious opposition" is technically true.

I think the curve might be exponential, referencing the "predictions" of AI future capabilities 93.36.179.126 17:15, 17 June 2026 (UTC)

We should explain how there can data points in the graph with y-values between zero and one. I assume it's because a team might well play multiple games during a single tournament. —Scs (talk) 18:10, 17 June 2026 (UTC)

That's obviously true. In the current format, each team plays between 3 and 8 games. During the initial group stage there are groups of 4 where each team plays the other 3. Then there are 5 single-elimination knockout rounds plus a playoff for third place between the semi-final losers. So if Messi makes it to the finals and scores 1 goal in every other game, the y-value will be 0.5. Barmar (talk) 19:03, 17 June 2026 (UTC)

Messiest graph ever. 64.201.132.210 18:34, 17 June 2026 (UTC)

I was going to update the transcript with estimated Y values of each data point. But maybe someone with a little more time and tooling could actually measure them and produce reasonably precise values. Barmar (talk) 18:57, 17 June 2026 (UTC)

Updated the transcript with the goals per game values for each world cup.

Do we need a new category for improbable extrapolations? I remember one about a woman having multiple husbands because she just got married and that would mean she gets a new husband every day, and I swear there were more. 8.53.15.117 20:55, 17 June 2026 (UTC)
        Add comment