3260: Messi

Messi

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Title text: Commentators agree that this will probably be the last World Cup in which Messi faces serious competition.

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Explanation

This is one of 46 incomplete explanations: This page was created in Lionel Messi's 398th goal. Don't remove this notice too soon. If you can fix this issue, edit the page!

In the vein of 605: Extrapolating, this comic utilizes the incorrect application of extrapolation to humorous ends. Extrapolation is a form of estimation in which existing data points are used to estimate new data points beyond the range of the existing ones. In this case, Randall appears to have fit several data points regarding soccer superstar Lionel Messi's average goals per World Cup game to a curve using what appears to be polynomial or exponential extrapolation. It illustrates the danger of a small sample size, as the data point for "2026 (so far)" is based on only one game (the day before this comic, in his inaugural game of the 2026 World Cup, Messi scored three goals), and that data point is used to support extrapolation of a rapidly rising number of goals-per-game into the future. The data points for previous World Cups, which bounce around among various values but are all less than or equal to 1.0, are each based on many more games, and as such are likely to be much better estimates of how many goals-per-game Messi will score in the future.

As well as that, if this graph would be true, this would imply that in future games Messi would be scoring multiple goals per second, which would be impossible in real life.^{[citation needed]}

The title text says that this World Cup is the last one in which Messi will face serious competition. This is likely true, but humorously so, as this is almost certainly Messi's last World Cup period. However, the commentators may well have been consulting the chart, and instead be referring to how if this chart was to be true, in future games Messi would theoretically score hundreds of goals, which, assuming no-one else has an exponential rate of goals (or other similar or greater level of growth), would easily beat other players. By apparently overlooking the fact that Messi is a only one of several players on his team, it may even be suggesting that, on his own, his ability can triumph over any other national team fielded in the World Cup.

Transcript

This is one of 28 incomplete transcripts: Don't remove this notice too soon. If you can fix this issue, edit the page!

[A graph is shown, with 1 axis having the numbers 1, 2, & 3 going up it, and the other having 24 unlabelled marks. There are 6 points on the graph itself, with them being labelled 2006 (.33), 2010 (0), 2014 (.57), 2018 (.25), 2022 (1), and 2026 (3), the latter having '(so far)' under it. There is a grey dotted curve going up exponentially.]

[Title of graph:]Lionel Messi [new line] world cup points per game.

[Caption below text:]At this rate, by 2040 Lionel Messi will be scoring hundreds of goals per game.

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Discussion

Does Randall support Messi? SectorCorruptor (talk) 16:26, 17 June 2026 (UTC)

Who doesn't support Messi? :D 130.76.187.46 18:00, 17 June 2026 (UTC)

He's one of my favourites. 81.179.199.253 22:29, 17 June 2026 (UTC)

Ronaldo. 82.13.184.33 08:22, 18 June 2026 (UTC)

New football/soccer terms for me! 2 goals scored in one game = Brace, 3 goals = Hat-trick, 4 goals = Haul, 5 goals = Glut BorQhue del Sol (talk) 16:58, 17 June 2026 (UTC)

"Brace" is a general form for a 'two-fer' of something ("I shot a brace of pheasant, the other day!").

"Hat-Trick" originally came from cricket; as a feat that earnt you a prized 'bragging rights' cap, from your team-mates, but possibly reinterpreted as you performing a magical feat (like pulling a rabbit from a hat).

"Haul" isn't, as far as I know, specific to four things, though you may praise a "four-goal haul" (better than the already named hat-trick, but getting a "five-goal haul" would be better yet). If it's been appropriated for four-specifically, it might just be like the extension of birdie to eagle to albatross to condor in golf (seeking a new word for such a feat).

"Glut" is a slightly derogatory everyday term, really. A "more than sufficiency". So, in a football context, either a direct complaint that someone scored far more goals against your side than was strictly necessary (in a case of being outclassed), or a tongue-in-cheek complaint that your player was now just showing off (supremacy in sport is one thing, but its rarely as much fun as barely scraping a 1-1 draw when anything but an actual loss (or goalless stalemate) isn't a threat to you comfortably staying at (or going up from) your current tier of competition, based upon prior performance and expectations. (A five-nil result, or more, doesn't usually do more to help your cause than a one-nil one, and the risks of trying too hard to get beyond three or four goals for an outclassing team (or just for a given player) are that you'll over-exert yourself, and/or use up 'all your luck'... 81.179.199.253 22:29, 17 June 2026 (UTC)

Soccer fans are just too used to it being a low-scoring game. You could also win a basketball game 2-1, but I'm pretty sure viewership would drop precipitously if this became normal. Maybe all these sports should switch to a virctory point system rather than just win/loss, so players don't get complacent. Barmar (talk) 22:42, 17 June 2026 (UTC)

I think the explanation on the hover text is missing the point that, at 38 years old, this is likely to be Messi's last world cup, which is another way in which the statement "last world cup in which he faces serious opposition" is technically true. 218.102.149.116 (talk) 17:08, 17 June 2026 (UTC) (please sign your comments with ~~~~)

I think the curve might be exponential, referencing the "predictions" of AI future capabilities 93.36.179.126 17:15, 17 June 2026 (UTC)

We should explain how there can data points in the graph with y-values between zero and one. I assume it's because a team might well play multiple games during a single tournament. —Scs (talk) 18:10, 17 June 2026 (UTC)

That's obviously true. In the current format, each team plays between 3 and 8 games. During the initial group stage there are groups of 4 where each team plays the other 3. Then there are 5 single-elimination knockout rounds plus a playoff for third place between the semi-final losers. So if Messi makes it to the finals and scores 1 goal in every other game, the y-value will be 0.5. Barmar (talk) 19:03, 17 June 2026 (UTC)

Messiest graph ever. 64.201.132.210 18:34, 17 June 2026 (UTC)

I was going to update the transcript with estimated Y values of each data point. But maybe someone with a little more time and tooling could actually measure them and produce reasonably precise values. Barmar (talk) 18:57, 17 June 2026 (UTC)

Couldn't you just use a pixel ruler? RG (talk) 00:24, 18 June 2026 (UTC)

Updated the transcript with the goals per game values for each world cup. -- Jhamination (talk) 19:13, 17 June 2026 (UTC) (please sign your comments with ~~~~)

Do we need a new category for improbable extrapolations? I remember one about a woman having multiple husbands because she just got married and that would mean she gets a new husband every day, and I swear there were more. 8.53.15.117 20:55, 17 June 2026 (UTC)

Category:Extrapolation is already (as I write this, haven't checked chronology against your suggestion) given to this comic. While it needn't also be used to improbable degrees, I think that this is always an implicit possibility for those comics it is used for. 81.179.199.253 23:46, 17 June 2026 (UTC)

Yes! I was hoping we'd get a comic about the world cup, with some sorta XKCD twist RG (talk) 00:18, 18 June 2026 (UTC)

Error? FIFA article today says 4 goals for Messi in the 2014 World Cup! FIFA World Cup all-time leading scorers Lionel Messi - Argentina Goals: 16 World Cups: Six - 2006 (one goal), 2010 (no goals), 2014 (four goals), 2018 (one goal), 2022 (seven goals), 2026 (three goals to date) Matches played: 27 81.106.93.247 06:31, 18 June 2026 (UTC)

4 goals; 7 appearances = 0.57 goals per game - looks about right to me 82.13.184.33 08:28, 18 June 2026 (UTC)
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