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| Messi |
 Title text: Commentators agree that this will probably be the last World Cup in which Messi faces serious competition. |
Explanation
In the vein of 605: Extrapolating, this comic utilizes the incorrect application of extrapolation to produce a ridiculous result. Extrapolation is a form of estimation in which existing data points are used to estimate new data points beyond the range of the existing ones. In this case, Randall has taken a few data points regarding soccer superstar Lionel Messi's average goals per game during World Cup editions and fit them to a curve using what appears to be polynomial or exponential extrapolation. It illustrates the danger of a small sample size, as the data point for "2026 (so far)" is based on only one game (the day before this comic, in his inaugural game of the 2026 World Cup, Messi scored three goals), and that data point is used to support extrapolation of a rapidly rising number of goals-per-game into the future. The data points for previous World Cups, which bounce around among various values but are all less than or equal to 1.0, are each based on more games, but still pretty small numbers, since Messi made only between three and seven appearances during those World Cups. The results are also likely affected by the nature of the competition's progression, as in the group stage a strong team such as Argentina (ranked number one in the world going into the World Cup) may be expected to score more goals against their randomly-selected opponents (none of whom are in the top 20) than in later stages of the competition where their opponents have overcome other teams in their groups to be there.
Additionally, the extrapolation pays no attention to the typical career shape of a football player, which would generally tend to show an improvement from youth into their prime playing years, followed by a decline, which can often be quite steep, as they age out. Nor does it allow for variations in the strength of the Argentina team impacting the number of goals Messi is able to score. If the trend shown were extrapolated into the 2050s, it would imply that, far from declining, Messi would be scoring multiple goals per second, which would be impossible in real life.[citation needed]
The claim in the title text that this World Cup is the last one in which Messi will face serious competition is likely true, but not in the sense that the extrapolation might suggest. That implies that in future World Cups Messi would theoretically score hundreds of goals per game, likely eclipsing any other player's scoring rate. It may even be suggesting that, on his own and regardless of the rest of his team, his ability can triumph over any other national team fielded in the World Cup. In reality, he will likely face no opposition as this is almost certainly Messi's last World Cup, period.
Transcript
- [A graph is shown, with 1 axis having the numbers 1, 2, & 3 going up it, and the other having 24 unlabelled marks. There are 6 points on the graph itself, with them being labelled 2006 (.33), 2010 (0), 2014 (.57), 2018 (.25), 2022 (1), and 2026 (3), the latter having '(so far)' under it. There is a grey dotted curve going up exponentially.]
- [Title of graph]:
- Lionel Messi
World Cup goals per game - [Caption below text:]
- At this rate, by 2040 Lionel Messi will be scoring hundreds of goals per game.
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